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Saturday 14 April 2018

The Grand National - Saturday 14th April 2018

We had good runs from both selections yesterday, and both finished in the places to end the day in a slight profit - Ms Parfois ran 2nd (advised at 6/1) and Ballyalton ran 5th (advised at 14/1).  Paddy Power paid 6-places on the Topham Trophy (Ballyalton's race) and many others paid 5 places).
I really thought MIN had the Melling Chase won but he just didn't have enough to beat Politilogue.  It wasn't the ground or the trip that beat him - Politilogue is one of those talented horses that once a season shows just how good he is and, for the rest of the season, he frustrates us. 

First-up today, I'm going to concentrate on the Grand National as that is the race most readers will want me to advise on.  I've already had an antepost wager at 50/1 on Warriors Tale and also a small win wager on Tiger Roll at 11/1.  However, I think this years' race is one of the trickiest I've come across and I'm not yet "hooked" on any one horse that I think holds a proper winning chance.  Obviously with 40 horses and 30 jumps you need a bit of luck, but the best horses with the best chances will make their own luck. So I'm having a fresh run through the runners, starting at the bottom and omitting any old horses (I really cannot see a 12yo or 13yo winning) and anything without any form at 3-mile-plus.  I also think the soft/heavy ground will make a big impact, and I wont be surprised to see less than 10 finish the race, so able to act on soft/heavy ground is something that I will look for.

Delusionofgrandeur 10st 5lb - ran 3rd over 3m5f at Sedgefield carrying 11:12 last November and he's won 4 from 10 chase races run over 3-mile-plus. However, he didn't stay the 4m1f on soft at Musselburgh on 03Feb and he's not on my shortlist.
Thunder And Roses 10st 5lb - Won the Irish National in 2015, and was 4th in it in 2017, he was unseated last year, and could run into 6th or 5th place as he does act on heavy ground.
Final Nudge  10st 6lb - His 3rd in the Welsh National carrying 11st 6lb was a great effort, and he ran well LTO without troubling the leaders. He could be a big surprise in this race at 50/1.
Milansbar 10st 6lb - His win in the Warwick Classic over 3m5f in January showed he's capable, and he's also twice run 2nd in a Midlands National over 4m1f. Sure to be bang there among the leaders throughout, and at 33/1 is a good eachway chance.
Baie Des Iles 10st 8lb - Ran 5th in the Welsh National as a 5yo, and then won in Ireland over 3m4f but could not win the same race last month which suggests she's not improving. Odds of 14/1 too short for me and I can't see this horse winning.
Pleasant Company 10st 11lb - Was the big Irish hope last year but the ground that day was probably too quick for him. He's been aimed at this race all season, and todays' ground will be perfect. He could run a big race and odds of 33/1 are fair value.
The Dutchman 10st 11lb - Won the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in some style, he flopped NTO on similar ground off a 13lb higher rating of OR148 which he races off here. May not be up to this.
Gas Line Boy 10st 11lb - Ran 5th in this race last year with 10:7, and won over the fences in December, he loves it here. The ground will suit him better than last year and I'm expecting a big race. Odds of 25/1 are very fair as he should at least make the 1st-5 finishers.
Warriors Tale 10st 12lb - Has been in top form all season, and handles soft ground. He's not raced beyond 3-mile except in hurdle races, but he's not shown he can't stay this trip. He's 50/1.
Chase The Spud 10st 12lb - His win in the 4m1f Midland National was off OR130 and he runs off OR149 in this. His recent form isn't great and he may not be up to this class of race.
Tiger Roll 10st 13lb - Has been aimed at this race and having won the 4-mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, he has the CV of a winner. Can be an indifferent performer but he does have the class and ability. Odds of 12/1 are about right as should be in the 1st-4 home.
Perfect Candidate 11st 3lb - Pulled-up last year but the ground was too quick for him. Even so, he ran well for a long way and this softer ground will suit him. No stamina doubts and odds of 66/1 very generous for a horse that should finish.
Total Recall 11st 5lb - Won the Ladbroke Trophy Chase at Newbury in the autumn and ran well till falling in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month. Obviously a classy horse but OR156 looks a high enough mark for him on what he's shown to date.
The Last Samuri 11st 8lb - it will be tough on this ground for a horse with this weight to win, but he went close on similar ground when 2nd in 2016. I can see him running a big race, but another who should be in the places and odds of 20/1 are fair.
Anibale Fly 11st 8lb - 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he will need to repeat that form and better it to win this race off this weight. It's possible, but (in my opinion) unlikely.
Blaklion 11st 10lb - ran a bold race in this last year to be 4th, and he can carry big weights to win as he showed here in December winning with 11st 6lb. Another bold show expected, but his odds of 12/1 leave no room for error.

With some bookies paying 6-places (Betfred, Boylesports, Totesport) it may pay to have some long-odds eachway wagers with those and, in a race like this with such terms, I have no problem placing wagers on 4 runners in the race.

My "four-against-the-field" are:-
Perfect Candidate @ 66/1
Tiger Roll @ 12/1
Warriors Tale @ 50/1
Final Nudge @ 50/1

The horse that I think has the best chance of being the winner is TIGER ROLL, as he will stay the trip, he will handle the ground, he comes here in top form having won LTO, and in Davy Russell he has one of the best jockeys in racing to steer him around the track. He's a classy horse that could probably have run in better quality races since winning at Cheltenham in 2017 but he's been aimed for this instead of a having a "Gold Cup" campaign this season.

My suggested wager is 4 x £2.50 eachway wagers on the 4 in the shortlist, plus £5 win on TIGER ROLL - total staked £25.  Good Luck! 

1 comment:

  1. Absolutely spot on!
    The horse that I think has the best chance of being the winner is TIGER ROLL, as he will stay the trip, he will handle the ground, he comes here in top form having won LTO, and in Davy Russell he has one of the best jockeys in racing to steer him around the track.
    I can't say any more than that - TIGER ROLL wins the National.