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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 15 April 2018

TIGER ROLL wins the Grand National

What a terrific result for the blog yesterday.
I only looked at the Grand National, and even though I'd already placed wagers on eventual winner TIGER ROLL and on Warriors Tale (who ran well, but lacked the stamina to finish and pulled-up before 2-out when beaten) because of the ground I felt I still wasn't sure that I had a good enough handle on the race. So, I awoke at 6:30am on Saturday morning, powered-up the laptop and poured myself a giant mug of tea and started looking at the race afresh.
In a race worth £500,000 to the winner, £200,000 to the 2nd and £100,000 to the 3rd and in which even the 10th placed horse wins £5,000 you know that the race is too competitive to be won by an "also-ran". And so I gave myself some "rules" to reduce the field of 40 down to something more manageable.  One of these rules was nothing aged 12yo or older and I nearly came unstuck as the 13yo Bless The Wings ran right up to the form which has twice taken him into 2nd place in the Irish National, the latest time last April and before that in March 2016.  This old campaigner has certainly earned an honourable retirement.  The only other "older" horse to finish was the 12yo Aintree specialist Gas Line Boy who would have been in the 1st-5 but for his stamina running out after jumping the 2nd-last fence. I had thought he was capable of making the 1st-5 (see my blog of yesterday) as he did last year, but age has caught up with him.
Because of the testing nature of the ground, I also looked for form at trips beyond 3-mile and that put my antepost wager on Warriors Tale in doubt. When I placed the wager, I expected the ground to be the "usual "good-to-soft" but the rains continued and heavy ground was the last thing the horse needed. Even so, he ran well, and I expect he will back in the winners enclosure when racing over a suitable trip on better ground NTO.
Due to the ground, I wasn't expecting more than 10 to finish and in the end only 12 did finish the race and of the non-finishers 13 were pulled-up. Only 2 of those 12 to finish carried over 11st in weight: Anibale Fly who had run 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month, and Valseur Lido who had missed most of 2017 due to injury but had been rated OR169 after winning a Grade 1, 3-mile chase in November 2016.  Beyond 4-mile and on this sort of ground, weight carried over 11st is a heavy burden and it takes an exceptional horse to win the National with more than 11st in the saddle.  Even finishing the race with 11st-plus in the saddle is a considerable effort, and something to take into account next year.
The heavy ground certainly played to the strengths of Pleasant Company (just as I expected, see my blog assessment) and, in my opinion, he ran right up to the form which won him the 3m1f Bobbjo Chase in Ireland last February. He was beaten by the good-to-soft ground in this race last year, and this is what a lot or "experts" overlook when appraising the form - horses will not run to their best on ground which does not suit them.  Yesterday, Pleasant Company ran a cracker, setting a strong pace for much of the final couple of miles and was only beaten by a horse that, in my opinion, could have been placed in this years Cheltenham Gold Cup had he been aimed at that race instead of this.
What can I say about the performance of the winner, TIGER ROLL? He was perfectly placed throughout by his jockey Davy Russell, and that brings its own luck - just ask Sam Twiston-Davies whose mount Blaklion was brought-down at the 1st fence when he collided on landing with the stricken Perfect Candidate who had over-jumped and crumpled on landing.  And Davy Russell lost his irons as they headed out on the 2nd-circuit, but he kept his cool and sorted himself out without interrupting the motion of the horse.
In the end, I think TIGER ROLL ran to about the same level as he did when winning the 4-mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2017. He is probably not up to Gold Cup winning standard, but he's certainly a lot better than his current OR150 rating, and should he drop back to an extended 3-mile trip for his next race then he will be worth following-up. However, I expect he will be aimed at a return to Aintree next year as he is still only an 8yo.

If you read the Grand National blog and followed my advised wagers, you would have emerged from the race with a profit of £82.50 for your £25 stake money on the 4 advised horses from the shortlist. The 4th horse on my list was Final Nudge who fell at Canal Turn on the 1st circuit before the race got going.

That's it for this jumps season.
You can still follow me on twitter on @wayward_lad and I'm usually watching the horseracing on a Saturday afternoon throughout the flat season.  It is now time for me to take a break, refresh the batteries, enjoy the summer (if we get one) and then look at building an alert list for the 2018-19 jumps season. Don;t forget, I will be posting my Cheltenham Festival blog on the pages to the right and adding to the notes there as I review each race in turn so that we can hit the ground running when we return to jump racing in October.

Good luck, and keep racing!

1 comment:

  1. Just a quick note to say thanks for a most informative read throughout the season.
    It's a pleasure to hear an actual opinion backed up with reasoning in this most subjective of sports,look forward to hearing from you again at the start of next season.


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