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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 25 October 2019

Cheltenham 26th October

The first Cheltenham Saturday meeting of the 2019-20 Jumps season, and what a welcome return it is. I'll be honest, while I enjoy watching the best of the flat racing, I find it a difficult medium to get excited about for wagering purposes. For me, the comfort blanket of the jumps, the familiar names, the characteristics of the tracks, the enthusiasm of the crowds and the camaraderie of the entire package make even losing wagers seem pleasurable.
I didn't post a blog for Friday's meeting, due to time constraints, and I didn't find a winner with my personal wager of the day which was a win bet on Plantagenet who (having led most of the way) succumbed to a late challenge and came home 2nd.
I wrote this blog on Friday evening, and there are a few non-runners:
Cobra De Mai (no surprise there); Rock The Kasbah (didn't think this would be pulled and we may see Richard Johnson "jock off" another rider); Shantou Village, and The Young Master.
As such there has been a dramatic change to the betting - good luck to those who read this blog on Friday evening!
The new fav is West Approach at 7/2 and that looks a bit short to me, but he should run well. Last nights odds on my chosen pair have long gone: BACK TO THE THATCH is now 10/1 from 20/1, and RED INFANTRY is 25/1 from 33/1. The early bird catches the worm!
Long term readers will know that handicap chases are my bread & butter, and Saturdays card start with a Class 2 handicap chase over 3m1f. No 10yo or older horse has won this race in the past 10 years, and 6yo's and under are also best avoided; so I'm discounting Onefortheroadtom, Cogry and The Young Master. Those carrying over 11st 7lb also struggle, the only such winner being Coologue (who I tipped on this blog) in 2016; so I'm discounting Cobra De Mai and Rock The Kasbah. I cannot see Minella Rocco doing anything, and Rocky's Treasure does his best work in fields of 5 or under. Of those remaining that are under 9yo, Captain Chaos ran a stinker in this last year, and Cheltenham possibly isn't his course. I really like the 7yo Back To The Thatch who likely found the Midlands National over 4m2f too far when falling at the final fence, but his 2nd at Haydock on soft ground over 3m3f looks right for this. If the ground was "good" (it's on the soft side of good-to-soft) then I would really like Bob Mahler and Rolling Dylan. I think this trip will stretch The Conditional, and Mindsmadeup.
The 9yo Crosspark possibly wants further than this, and possibly the same goes for Royal Vacation. Shantou Village needs to be at his best to win this off OR142.  West Approach could not get his head in front last season and went up from OR143 to OR150 in the process, as such he's not my idea of a winner of this race. The Irish trained Na Trachalai Abu has only won 2 of his 24 chase races in Ireland and he will face a tough task in this. Since winning the Rowland Meyrick in 2017 Get On The Yager has not been the same horse despite wind surgery. Red Infantry will find this trip to his liking and has scope off OR138, he could go close.
I think this race will be between BACK TO THE THATCH and RED INFANTRY, and this pair are both at long odds and well worth an eachway wager.
Suggested wager:
Cheltenham 2:00pm
BACK TO THE THATCH - £5 eachway @ 20/1 (BetVictor 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
RED INFANTRY - £5 eachway @ 33/1  (BetVictor 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)

At Kelso, I reckon VINTAGE CLOUDS could be the one to beat in the 3:00pm Class 2, 3m2f handicap chase. He has only 7 rivals and has won his seasonal chase debut for the past couple of seasons. He was due to run in the handicap chase reviewed above at Cheltenham, but has been diverted here instead. Odds of 9/2 look more than fair for a horse who will almost certainly be in the 1st-3 with a clear round and he is usually a very safe jumper.

All the best and good luck with your wagers.
PS: I think I've sorted out the security issue with the blog (some chancer was trying to extort money) but if you do get a dodgy email purporting to be from me, it will be fake so please just delete it.

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