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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

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Friday, 1 November 2019

Ascot 2nd November (and the Charlie Hall Chase)

Last weekend was a bit disappointing as, with 3 fences to jump, both of my selections were in the leading group of 5 and going well. Unfortunately, the ground took its toll (it was almost unraceable in parts of the course at Cheltenham) and only Red Infantry found the places coming in 5th. Still, as I had advised taking the 33/1 about him the evening before the race at 5th odds a place, I managed a small profit of £18 on my £20 wager on the race.
Before getting onto Saturdays racing, the Sue Smith stable (in Yorkshire) do not seem to be able to get their horses running anywhere near their ability, and they are yet to have a winner from 31 runners in the past 5 weeks and their usual strikerate (at this time of year) is 10%.
Onto Saturday, and I will be at Ascot - unless the heavens open and the racing is abandoned - where the ground is good-to-soft. This has been a lucky meeting for me in the past and I'm hoping for a decent day at the races. I can't see me having a wager before the 4th race on the card which is the Listed handicap chase over 2m1f at 2:10pm. The ground may be a bit soft for the 5yo Ballywood, but he looks an interesting runner off OR147. One who looks better is Caid Du Lin who is a C&D winner and will not be too inconvenienced by soft ground. It's difficult to know what to make of the 2nd-season chaser Clondaw Castle, and Paul Nicholls' Capeland (also a 2nd-season chaser) may prove more interesting. All-in-all, a tricky affair, and I can only assume that stable confidence is behind The Last Day as what he's shown on the course does not merit his position at the head of the market.
The feature race at Ascot is the Sodexo Gold Cup over 3-mile at 3:20pm and 17 runners are likely to go to post.
I have the early fav Vinndication about 5lb ahead of his OR151 rating and he's an Ascot winner, but will he stay 3-miles? On The Blind Side was pulled-up in the 3-mile RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, and I reckon he was flattered LTO over hurdles as the race collapsed. Mister Malarky has not shown to me he's worth an OR145 rating, but he does stay 3-mile. Larry is another uncertain to stay the trip, but he goes well right-handed (twice a winner at Sandown). Other than the fav, who has to prove his stamina at this trip, I can't get excited about many in this race, so I am going to look at this another way. Top weight is Paul Nicholls' Black Corton who is rated OR163 and hasn't a cat in hells chance of winning a handicap with that rating. However, his presence in the race means his stablemate ADRIEN DU PONT - who was 4th in this race last year - carries just 10st 12lb and his rider Lorcan Williams can claim another 3lb. Currently 16/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds the 1st-4) looks decent value to me as he's also had a wind operation over the summer.
It may prove to be a good call to tie the Nicholls-trained pair of ADRIEN DU PONT and CAPELAND in an eachway double, as the latter is 11/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds the 1st-3).

At Wetherby, the Charlie Hall Chase hangs on whether La Bague Au Roi returns to racing as good as she was last season. However, if she runs as strongly as she has done in the past that may well set the race up for the strong staying ELEGANT ESCAPE who has abundant stamina having won the Welsh National last season (with Ballyoptic well beaten behind him that day). I think we have seen the best of the 10yo Definitly Red, and we have no idea if Aso will stay this trip at this level. Without a doubt, La Bague Au Roi is a worthy favourite at 5/2, but the 8/1 odds offered about ELEGANT ESCAPE are very tempting.

Advised wagers
Ascot 2:10pm - CAPELAND - £4 eachway @ 11/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds the 1st-3)
Ascot 3:20pm - ADRIEN DU PONT - £4 eachway @ 16/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds the 1st-4)
PLUS £2 eachway double on the above pair.
Wetherby 3:40pm - ELEGANT ESCAPE - £5 win @ 8/1 with PaddyPower

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