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Saturday 16 November 2019

BetVictor Gold Cup - 16th November

A cracking day of horseracing and a bumper day from Cheltenham, as we lost yesterday to flooding on the track. The ground is likely to start Soft (heavy in places) but get more hard work during the day as the track cuts up.
These past few weeks I've not had much luck and I need to get a winner on the board, and this meeting has been a good one for me in years past. I'm hoping that WHOLESTONE takes the prize in the 3-mile novices chase at 1:15pm as he looks the best of these and we know he stays this trip. Over the season, I doubt he will be the best staying novice chaser, just as he wasn't quite the best staying hurdler, but he's not far off the best and that will surely be good enough today. Unfortunately, you are unlikely to get longer odds than 2/1 and - as long term readers of the blog know - I do not suggest wagers at odds of under 9/4; that's the USP of the blog.
The next race on the card offeres perhaps a better chance of some value. The 3m3f trip will take some staying on this ground and though Ramses De Teillee ticks a lot of boxes, 11st 12lb will likely stop him. West Approach is not as good a chaser as he was a hurdler, and this trip could well stretch him.
The 9yo Big River does not have many miles on the clock as this is only his 9th chase race. He was not far away at the Cheltenham Festival last March when 4th to Beware The Bear, and a repeat of that run will see him go close as he's run well on heavy ground before. What puts me off Big River is that he's just 4/1, and that does not look value to me. If there is value in this race then it's with POTTERS LEGEND who won a 3m1f Class 2 chase at Haydock on soft last March and a repeat of that run will see him take this off OR132. He's had a pipe-opener over hurdles and will be primed for this.  I also like Pop Rockstar but he needs to show this trip is within his scope.  For me POTTERS LEGEND at6 13/2 (available generally) looks value to me as I'm surprised he's not at least joint-fav with Ramses De Teillee.
The feature race of the day is the BetVictor Gold Cup run over 2m4f at 2:25pm. .Ideally, you are looking for a horse that is on the upgrade as a chaser, has won at Cheltenham, and ran at the last Cheltenham Festival.  I think this trip (and top-weight) will find out Us And Them.  However Siruh Du Lac could again defy the handicapper as Janika (2nd at Cheltenham) has since won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. In 3rd at the Festival (behind Siruh Du Lac) was Spiritofthegames, and he could be very interesting off OR150 so long as he's not given too much to do (likes to be held-up early on). The fav is Slate House based on his win LTO over C&D, but I think he was flattered by that result and his current odds offer no value at all.
There are 3 horses in the race that catch my eye: Springtown Lake, Happy Diva and Eamon An Cnoic. The 8yo mare Happy Diva has been very consistent over her chase career with 4 wins and 7 x 2nds over her 15 chase runs; she is probably a good eachway play at 12/1. Eamon An Cnoic was 4th in the race at the Festival won by Siruh Du Lac, snd he was 5th in this race last year so he obviously relishes this C&D. Trainer David Pipe knows how to aim one at this race and he will surely be in the 1st-5 home, so again at odds of 14/1 he's a good eachway play. Springtown Lake has the least experience, this will be his 7th chase race. The ground will be okay for him and he's been campaigned mainly over 3-miles as a chaser, but he was 5th at the Festival in the 2m4f and that he's come back for this suggests he will make his stamina an asset on this ground.
This is a tricky race to fathom, and if push comes to shove it will be EAMON AN CNOIC.

Todays selections:
Cheltenham 1:50pm POTTERS LEGEND, £10 WIN @ 13/2 (Bet365)
Cheltenham 2:25pm EAMON AN CNOIC, £5 eachway @ 14/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)

1 comment:

  1. Close but no cigar.
    I was right about WHOLESTONE although he made hard work if it.
    POTTERS LEGEND was there with every chance but he just lacks gears and plodded on up the hill. He needs to run over a marathon trip.
    And I had a shortlist of 3 for the feature race, but plumped for the wrong one, as HAPPY DIVA ran a cracker to win. Springtown Lake showed his inexperience, and Eamon An Cnoic fell at the 2nd fence.