Early thoughts? The Festival starts next Tuesday.
But is has been a strange jumps season, I feel like very little has happened and it has sneaked-up on us. I keep hearing the phrase "I've not had an antepost wager this year" - so it's not just me then!
I've been looking at the championship races, as there is very little point in looking at the handicaps unless you have some very good knowledge, and here are a few pointers.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Supreme Novice Hurdle - this isn't a betting race for me, but the form on the ground looks pretty sparce, which could indicate a long-odds winner, or it could indicate that the best of the novices is a lot better than the others. For me, and I said this on twitter a few weeks ago, ASTERION FORLONGE has the best form in the book. Throw-in he's trained by Mullins and we could be looking at a decent start to the Festival. But do not go overboard!
Day 1 - Tuesday
Arkle - on the formbook this is between Notebook and CASH BACK. There is a possibility that Brewin'upastorm could figure, but he's not raced since November and that is not a good sign. For me, CASH BACK at 13/2 (today) could be one of the bets of the Festival. He is very lightly raced for an 8yo, and looked a decent hurdler in his short spell over hurdles.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Ultima Handicap - several catch my eye: Mister Malarkey ticks a lot of boxes; ROCK THE KASBAH does too; and if he gets in The Conditional.
Day 1 - Tuesday
NH Chase - this race invariably goes to the best form-horse in the race, the top-rated. At the moment that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, add that he's ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen in this amateur riders race, and so long as the sun doesn't shine too much and we have soft ground on the opening day, this one looks like being hard to catch, odds of 8/1 look long.
Day 2 - Wednesday
RSA Chase - this revolves around Champ, if he jumps well, he wins. But will he jump well? Odds of 3/1 look fair to me on that score, but you may want a saver on the "next-best", COPPERHEAD who looked a very good novice chaser when winning over 3-mile at Ascot LTO. Odds of 4/1 could look decent on the day, but he's sure to be in the 1st-3 for eachway multiples.
Day 2 - Wednesday
QMCC - You are either a fan of Altior, or you aren't. He will need to be at his best to win this, and will he be at 10yo? For me it is between DEFI DU SEUIL and Chancun Pour Soi, and a reverse forecast on that pair may be a money-spinner.
Day 2 - Wednesday
X-Country Chase - not a race I usually wager in, but the prime target for Tiger Roll is a 3rd Grand National, and that means EASYLAND should romp home in this.
Day 3 - Thursday
Ryanair - a race that could cut-up a lot, but one I think has improved in leaps and bounds this season is RIDERS ONTHE STORM, he could be seriously good, and if Cepage runs well on the opening day in the Ultima Handicap, you will not find 7/1 on the day.
Day 4 - Friday
Gold Cup - I've looked at this race a lot. Nothing has come close to the form of AL BOUM PHOTO when he won this last year, and he won it in a canter. It will have to be one of last years' novice chasers that beats him (if one can) and that's Santini, Lostintranslation, or Delta Work. Personally, I think DELTA WORK would have won the RSA Chase last year had he pushed-on after the 3rd-last.
So it is between those two.
At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.
Good luck, more on the handicaps later.
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