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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 21 November 2021

A 16/1 winner for the blog!

 A great result yesterday, with JERSEY BEAN - advised in the morning at 9/1 - drifting out to an SP of 16/1 (I just missed 18/1 about a minute before the off). Those odds were a bit daft considering the horse had everything in his favour: trip, ground, fitness, a course winner, and he's a prominent runner too.  My morning thought was that he'd go off around 7/1, and with 4-places available from some bookies in this 11-runner race, I just could not see how having a wager on him eachway would not result in small profit at least.  This is why - in my opinion - it pays to think about how you wager: always remember you are in control and you should ONLY have a wager when you think the odds are in your favour. Add that JB was Oliver Sherwood's only runner yesterday, and 4 of his last 8 runners have won or placed in the past week, and there was no reason that this horse - who has improved with nearly every run he's had over fences - should have been 16/1.

I thought, about a mile out in the Betfair Chase, that I had a chance of another winning wager on Royale Pagaille, but he was thoroughly put in his place by A PLUS TARD.  It is difficult to rate a performance when the winner finishes like he did yesterday; all I can do is say that APT ran to his official rating of OR172, and that this was a better performance than his Gold Cup 2nd last March - and it should be, as at 7yo he's still improving.  Having re-read my own blog yesterday, the wager I should have recommended was a £5 win wager on Royale Pagaille at 9/1 and a £5 Straight Forecast: APT to beat RP as that paid £9.01 to a £1.  Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but a mental note to me and the readers - do not ignore the Forecast option.

At Ascot, I placed a speculative wager on Defi Du Seuil but, without a doubt now, the horse is a shadow of his former self. It was good to see Lostintranslation win again, but I'm not excited by this result and it was a fairly ordinary performance.

I was more impressed with BOB OLINGER winning in Ireland as that race has been won by some top-class novice chasers and Bob Olinger won this without breaking sweat.

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