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Friday 26 November 2021

Saturday 27th November - Ladbrokes Trophy H'cap Chase

We have one of the best chase handicaps of the jumps season this weekend in the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury. Always run at a strong pace, and always a race that produces good winners; and this year looks like being one of the better editions.

Before I go on: I discussed the race and my thoughts on the likely winner on the WRAP (What's Racing About Podcast) hosted by Peter Bell: here is the link

 https://www.buzzsprout.com/1811838/9615280  The plan is to have a chat with Peter maybe once or twice a month, and to try and find a few decent winners and entertain the listener at the same time.

There are 21 runners going to post, and while I don't want to go through them all, the market leaders look a bit short in the market to me. I'd be surprised if On The Ropes can win this off OR153 even if he is trained by Willie Mullins, and while Eklat De Rire appears to have more potential, he finished tired LTO and I wonder if he has the stamina for a race like this. Ditto Fiddlerontheroof, stamina isn't proven. 
Those that I think will be involved for the final half-mile are:-
Cloth Cap: last year's winner (off OR136) and still fairly handicapped on OR154, he is likely to be in the places.  Remastered: a strong stayer and well prepared for this race having had a prep-run over hurdles.  I like this horse a lot and his OR146 rating gives him scope to go well.  Copperhead: a bit of a punt as to consider him you have to draw a line through last season, when his stable was under a cloud. Now Joe Tizzard is trainer in-all-but-name, this horse could revert back to his novice chase form which would make him very attractive off OR148. Canelo: won the "Rowland Meyrick" on Boxing Day off OR142, and has done nothing wrong since, but now is back on that winning rating. He could be the sort to grind out a win in this race if weather conditions turn nasty. Finally, Cloudy Glen: ran a top race when 2nd in the Kim Muir, and while I can't see him winning, he could pass a lot of beaten horses in the final half-mile and sneak into 4th or 5th place. Most bookies are going 5th odds a place, and paying-out on 6 places; and Skybet and William Hill are paying 7-places.
The best odds available are:
Cloth Cap: 12/1 (Betfred 6-places), or 11/1 (7-places with Skybet & William Hill)
Remastered: 14/1 (Paddy Power 6-places), or 12/1 (7-places with Skybet & William Hill)
Copperhead: 18/1 (7-places with Skybet & William Hill)
Canelo: 33/1 (7-places with William Hill)
Cloudy Glen: 33/1 (7-places with Skybet)

My advice:
Remastered: £5 eachway @ 14/1 (Paddy Power 6-places)
Canelo: £2.50 eachway @ 33/1 (7-places with William Hill)
Copperhead: £2.50 eachway @ 18/1 (7-places with Skybet)
Total staked = £20.00

Up at Newcastle, the Rehearsal Chase over 3-miles at 2:05pm looks very interesting. For me, two horses jump out: Aye Right and Spiritofthegames.  Aye Right was 2nd in the Ladbrokes Trophy last year, so coming here instead looks a good pointer, but I feel he may find his rating of OR151 too much to win off in this competitive field. As such, Spiritofthegames looks the one to be on; he stays 3-miles (provided the ground isn't soft) and he looks very well handicapped on OR141.  He always runs his race, and is very consistent, and odds of 6/1 (available generally, 4-places eachway), look fair. 
Newcastle 2:05pm - Spiritofthegames - £5.00 eachway @ £6/1 (Skybet 5-places)


  1. Talk about hitting the post! Great analysis. N good to hear you’re joining up with Peter for his podcast, good luck

  2. Thanks Jim - too many "tipsters" just post selections to please the bookies (who pay them commission on advised losing wagers). That doesn't happen on this blog.