Talk about feast and famine.
Last week we had more decent racing than we knew what to do with, and we made hay! The blog looked at 6 races and found the winners of 4 at odds of 9/1, 4/1, 3/1 and 13/8 - some readers posted the outcome of some tasty multiples!
This week, we have 3 meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford, and (apart from the feature race at Cheltenham) I'm struggling to find a race to have a wager on. It is very disappointing.
As such, I'm sticking to the Racing Post Gold Cup (handicap) Chase over 2m 4f & 127 yards.
There are 15 runners going to post and - to be honest - the race looks weak.
The race has been on the calendar since 1963 under various names, and in all those years the last time a horse aged 9yo or older won was in 1993 (Fragrant Dawn): so why the 9yo Lalor is the 4/1 fav at the time of writing is beyond me. This race is won year after year by a young, under-exposed, (rapidly) improving chaser - so why should it be different in 2021? That said, I expect Lalor to be placed, but he will need a career-best effort to win this off OR151.
Silver Hallmark (odds of 6/1) has only had 3 chase races, but he has shown potential to be capable off OR145, but I feel his best form has been on softer ground than he will encounter on Saturday.
Dostal Phil (odds of 7/1) was the first horse I considered for this race, but I've passed him over as his style of racing (held-up) suggests trips of 2m6f+ will be his best; but he won't be far away.
Beakstown (odds of 8/1) has yet to win a chase, but he has been highly tried. But I don't think he's improving and the winner of this race will out-perform their official rating.
Midnight Shadow (odds of 8/1) won the "Paddy Power" LTO and went up 7lb in the handicap as a result. There have been winners of this race that have won the "Paddy Power", but not many and OR154 may well prove too much for this horse.
Farinet (odds of 8/1) was due to run in the "Paddy Power" but was withdrawn due to the ground - and he may find this ground (on the good side if good-to-soft) too lively for him to run to his best. I also think he needs to have improved +10lb on his LTO win at Sandown in March if he's to win this.
And that brings me to the horse that I think will win this: FUSIL RAFFLES (odds of 9/1). There was no disgrace in finding it impossible to concede 12lb to Bravemansgame in October; but he ran better than OR152 in the process. Then, he was the best of the finishers in the 3-mile "Charlie Hall" at Wetherby, and I think he's not a proper 3-mile chaser. Fusil Raffles ran a cracker in the 2m4f novices Marsh Chase (Grade 1) at the Festival when 2nd to Chantry House, and I think he's a 7lb better horse on what we've seen this season. I'll be honest; I took 10/1 with Paddy Power and Bet Victor on Thursday evening with both offering 5th odds to 4-places eachway (there are only 15 runners remember!).
The 10yo Coole Cody (odds of 9/1) was running well till falling in the "Paddy Power", but he was being ridden and he fell 2-out - and that is the sign of a tiring horse, and he's gone up 2lbs in the handicap to OR143.
Cepage (16/1) pulled-up in this race last year on his seasonal debut; and none of the other runners look capable of featuring in the race. Zanza (odds of 11/1) ran well in the "Paddy Power", but his last 3 wins have been at Newbury, and that's probably where he will win his next race, not undulating Cheltenham.
I contributed to a podcast with WRAP (What's Racing About Podcast) hosted by Peter Bell and discussed the race and my thoughts on FUSIL RAFFLES on Thursday evening:
here's the link Hype...A Tip....and The Frost / Dunne Case (buzzsprout.com)
My wager tomorrow is just on the one race:
Cheltenham 1:50pm
FUSIL RAFFLES: £5 eachway @ 9/1 (Paddy Power & Bet Victor, 5th odds 4-places)
and £5 win @ 9/1
Total staked = £15
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