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Saturday 4 December 2021

Saturday 4th December 2021 - Tingle Creek Chase

What a cracking day of horseracing we have this Saturday:  Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow and Wetherby; it's almost too much to contemplate.  On busy days like this, the intelligent punter holds the upper-hand, we don't have to wager - we can pick & choose our targets. What you have to watch out for is there have been a lot of non-runners declared.

Let's start with Wetherby (for a change) as there are a couple of Class 3 races there, and with all the focus on Sandown and Aintree we may find a bit of value to shop punters have chosen to ignore. The 3-mile chase at 1:37pm has just 9 runners, and we can quickly discount a few (like Minella Till Dawn, Grange Ranger & Chef D'Oeuvre).  I'm not convinced Admiral Barratry has the stamina for 3-miles, and Cobra De Mai has not run well for some time.  When they met in April-19, "Cobra" beat Rocky's Treasure, but "Rocky" has held his form better since then winning a Class 2 at Doncaster in Dec-20 off OR138. That's 6lb higher than his current rating, but his recent races have been poor efforts.  However it is interesting that 5lb claimer Harrison Beswick has the ride as he's worth his claim. Sirwilliamwallace is another whose stamina is unproven at 3-mile; so the race looks between the LTO winners Castle Robin and Saint Palais - and I tend more for the latter who won well over 2m7f LTO.  Rocky's Treasure could be an interesting eachway as he's 20/1 (available generally), or place-only wager though.  I'm not interested in the Class 3, 2-mile hurdle race there.

Chepstow has a strong card of races, headed by the Class 2 handicap Chase over 2m7f & 131yards at 1:22pm.  The topweight Truckers Lodge goes well fresh and though he's a C&D winner, this trip looks a bit short for him as he's been running well in marathon chases. The 9yo Run To Milan does not have many miles on the clock, and he looks unexposed at this trip. He was a promising novice hurdler, and he could be a rapid improver this season having run well on his seasonal debut on 02Nov.  Eclair Surf was going well until falling LTO, but it is a concern that both his wins have come on heavy ground; he's one for when the rain comes.  Colorado Doc is not guaranteed to stay the trip; and the jumping of Iwilldoit fell apart when he last ran in a chase. As such, I'm surprised that Supreme Escape is 20/1: he may be 4lb out of the handicap, but he's 2 from 5 at Chepstow winning on good and heavy ground, and he's also a 3-mile hurdle winner at Doncaster. I can forgive him his run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, and it's likely he need his run LTO at Aintree in a 3-mile hurdle. He may not win this, but he's an interesting place-only wager (Skybet are 18/1 4-places ew). The most likely winner looks to be RUN TO MILAN in my opinion, and there's lots of 13/2 available.

At Sandown, there is a top-class card, and the Grade 1 novice chase before the "Tingle Creek" looks a belter.  At this time of the season, it does not pay to go-in too heavy as improvement in novice chasers can be rapid; that said, I do like the chance of Edwardstone to overturn the fav Third Time Lucki here. At Cheltenham, I thought TTL was fortunate to hold onto the race as last-fence-faller Captain Tom Cat was staying-on strong. Last season, Edwardstone was the better hurdler, and on level terms in this I'm seeing 11/4 (he was 7/2 yesterday afternoon) on him as better value than 9/4 on the fav.

In the Tingle Creek, my thoughts are we should see Chancun Pour Soi, Greaneteen and Nube Negra coming to the final fence align-abreast.  Greaneteen was disappointing LTO at Exeter, but a repeat of his win at Sandown in April puts him bang in here - so long as his jumping holds-up as that has let him down in the past. Not faults on that score for Chancun Pour Soi, who (possibly) ran too quickly after winning at the Dublin Festival Grade 1 when running 3rd in th QMCC at the Cheltenham Festival. He goes well fresh, and he should put in a faultless display, but will that be enough to beat Nube Negra? Forget his run at the Punchestown Festival, NUBE NEGRA ran 2nd (beating Chancun Pour Soi) at Cheltenham, and his seasonal debut win last month puts his in the driving seat in my opinion. Odds of 100/30 look very attractive to me.

In the "London National" at 3:00pm, a race over an extended 3m4f, the horse that looks the most likely winner to me is the top-weight Highland Hunter. Trainer Paul Nicholls knows he has a decent marathon chaser in his stable in this one, and he improved every run last season.  The form of the Midlands National at Uttoxeter is looking strong, and I was expecting to see a market move for this one.  As such, he's still available at 9/1 (with William Hill offering 4-places ew), and that looks cracking value in a race that looks fairly weak.  It could be one helluva day for Paul Nicholls.

It is not difficult to see Protektorat winning the "Many Clouds" Grade 2 chase over 3m1f at 2:05pm at Aintree and I cannot believe that he's available at 100/30 (and 7/2 with William Hill).

That looks enough races to be taking into consideration today. My wagers are going to be:
Chepstow 1:22pm RUN TO MILAN @ 13/2
Sandown 3:00pm HIGHLAND HUNTER @ 9/1
£5.00 eachway double with William Hill 

Aintree 2:05pm PROTEKTORAT: £10.00 win @ 7/2 with William Hill

1 comment:

  1. 6 races reviewed, the selections were:-
    Saint Palais - WON
    Run To Milan - 4th
    Edwardstone - WON
    Nube Negra - unplaced
    Protecktorat - WON
    Highland Hunter - WON