After a quiet period of horseracing, we have a fairly decent day to take a look at with good meetings at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby. There are a couple of top races on: at Kempton there's the £100,000 Lanzarote handicap hurdle over 2m5f; and at Warwick there is the £100,000 "Classic" handicap chase over 3m5f. My preference is to stick with the chase races.
In the "Classic" at Warwick at 3:00pm; last years winner Notachance runs off the same rating of OR139, but while last year he carried 10st 5lb this year he carries 11st 9lb. This looks a tricky race to fathom, but I keep coming back to the topweight Corach Rambler @ 6/1 and Gericault Roque, the fav @ 4/1. Those odd do not look value to me, and if I was pushed to have a wager on the race then I'd be looking at taking an ew punt on something like Minella Encore who - while he is unlikely to win - should be in the 1st-5 should he complete the race, and 14/1 (5-places ew) with several bookies looks fair.
Kempton has a cracking card of races, but it's a bit disappointing that the 2m4f chase at 1:32pm has been reduced to just 7 runners from 16 entered midweek. I'm happy to oppose the fav Champagne Court on two counts: he's the oldest horse in the race at 9yo, and I think this trip could just stretch him a bit. The 2nd-fav Foxboro looks a horse who is hard-work for the jockey, and so I don't think putting a 5ln claimer in the saddle is a good idea. Just over 12 months ago, it was an impossible task for Falco Blitz (OR139) to concede 7lb to Killer Clown (now OR142) over C&D, and he had no chance over 3-mile on his seasonal debut LTO. This trip could see him go well, and odds of 5/1 (11/2 in places) look fair. I also like Kap Auteuil but think this trip could be a bit sharp for him and he probably will want a strongly run race to figure at the finish, but I think his next win will be over a trip of 3-miles. I just cannot see the other 3 runners - Fanzio, Lock's Corner or Twenty Twenty - winning this race. So, for me, the Nicky Henderson trained FALCO BLITZ @ 5/1 (sorry, the 11/2 has gone while writing, and he's 9/2 in places now) looks the WIN wager - £10 on.
Kempton's 3-mile handicap chase at 3:15pm looks a good race for a punt: just 8 runners and they are all well-known chasers. The fav for the race is Caribean Boy trained by Nicky Henderson, and question is will the horse stay this 3-mile trip? His best race (on my ratings) was when 7th in the "Plate" handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival last March carrying 11st 11lb in this top class handicap. He was running off OR153 that day, and he has a real chance today off OR145 if his stamina holds out. There are no stamina issue's about Kitty's Light, but will he handle the soft ground well enough to show his best form? The consistent Smarty Wild won his only chase (from 9 starts) here at Kempton, but that was over an extended 2m4f. Again, the question is will he stay the trip? I'm never happy placing my money on 12yo horses, and although Double Shuffle who loves it here at Kempton could run a big race (and the emphasis is on the word "Could") I'm passing over on A Toi Phil and Wishing And Hoping. Christian Williams has done well finding 3 races to win for Strictlydancer, but this looks a tough ask given he isn't the quickest of horses. The Peter Bowen trained Mac Tottie is interesting, as he stays this trip, handles soft ground, and he's won going right-handed at Market Rasen. I just feel he was flattered when winning over the National fences at Aintree in November, and a rating of OR141 is possibly 7lb too high - but he does tick a lot of boxes, in a race with many having question marks. If Caribean Boy stays this trip then he's the most likely winner, but with just 8 runners and Skybet offering 4-places and 11/1 about MAC TOTTIE, that has to be the value eachway wager for me.
Selections:
Kempton 1:32pm FALCO BLITZ - £10 win @ 5/1 (available generally)
Kempton 3:15pm MAC TOTTIE - £5 ew @ 11/1 (Skybet 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Hit the back of the net with FALCO BLITZ who ran-out a good winner at the unbelievable SP of 7/1 - there was no need to scoop-up the early 5/1. I can't understand odds drifts like this, but there was strong support for the front-3 in the market. And I only went and talked myself out of another good winner in Caribean Boy who won at 9/2. That was great value and I need to give myself a good taking to about missing him. As I wrote: if he stays he wins - and he had a 40% chance of staying the trip and so he was a 7/4 chance trading at odds of 9/2. Damn & blast!
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