We hit the winners enclosure last Saturday with the 7/1 winner Falco Blitz at Kempton from the 2 selections posted on the blog. And then I only went and talked myself out of another good winner in Caribean Boy who won at 9/2. That was great value and I need to give myself a good taking to about missing him. As I wrote: if he stays he wins - and he had a 40% chance of staying the trip and so he was a 7/4 chance trading at odds of 9/2. Damn & blast!
We have a great day of racing today, especially at Ascot with the clash between Shishkin and Energumene in the Clarence House Stakes. For what it's worth, I think Shishkin has the better form in the book, but Energumene isn't far behind and has enormous potential - it should be a classic and I cannot split them.
I've taken a look at the handicap chases at Ascot, and they are both competitive affairs. The 2m5f h'cap chase at 2:55pm has just 7 runners, and the top-weight Fanion D'Estruval is running off OR159 and so giving at least 17lb to the rest of the field; and I think that's a tad too much. The 9yo Palmers Hill has won both starts this season, including over 2m3f here at Ascot in December; as such h's gone-up 12lb in the ratings to OR142. However, I think his owners other horse in the race Phoenix Way has a better chance of winning this. He was highly tried as a novice chaser last season, so connections obviously think he has potential, and his run here at Ascot over 3-miles in December was a significant step forward. Off the same mark of OR140 on the soft ground he could have the stamina required to take this. Odds of 11/2 look fair value and there is some 6/1 out there.
The other race at Ascot I've taken a look at is the 3-mile handicap chase at 1:10pm. I do not like the fav and top-weight in this race Cat Tiger: he is probably better than OR132, but not much - and he has some problems with his attitude as he does switch-off in races. The remainder of the field of 10 all have some issues about them, so I'm expecting this race to be won by a horse that is clearly better than his rating but appears to have lost his way: Port Of Mars. He has pulled-up in his last 2 races, and LTO that was behind Cat Tiger - so I realise there has to be a big turnaround here. But he won going right-handed at Hereford 12 months ago and was considered a potential Festival horse after that run so, off just OR133 here, he's worth an eachway fun punt at 16/1 to small money.
The Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock at 2:35pm is over 3, 1f & 125 yards and looks a cracker of a betting opportunity. It's no surprise to see Remastered as one of the market leaders along with Royal Pagaille, but I think Remastered could find this trip too much as he did LTP over C&D. As for Royal Pagaille, if he can win this off OR163 with 11st 10lb in the saddle then he has to be considered for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham (if there's any fuel left in the tank after the effort required to win this). For me, I am amazed that odds of 12/1 are available about 3-time (from 4 races) course winner Lord Du Mesnil for this race - he ran a cracker LTO at Wetherby on Boxing Day in the "Rowland Meyrick" and comes here in top form. Usually carrying over 11st (he had 11st 12lb LTO) he has just 10st 13b in the saddle today. We know he stays well, runs prominently, is consistent, jumps well - ticks a lot of boxes this horse!
My advised selections today:
Haydock 2:35pm LORD DU MESNIL : £5 eachway @ 12/1 (Bet 365)
Ascot 2:55pm PHOENIX WAY : £5 win @ 6/1 (Bet 365)
plus
£2.50 eachway double
Total staked = £20
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