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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 15 March 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 4 (15th March)

What a cracking day it was yesterday. 
We started off with a winner in the opening race, when Grey Dawning stayed on best of all to win at odds of 5/2. Then we had a great ew wager on Emitom in the Pertemps Final at 28/1; the day was to get even better.  Protektorat, the selection in the Ryanair Chase, romped home at decent odds of 9/1 (recommended taking on the blog). Finally, we very nearly pulled-off a tremendous wager in the Stayers' Hurdle when Flooring Porter looked to be going on to win, only to be caught and passed on the run-in.

Let's look at Gold Cup day:
1:30pm Triumph Hurdle 4yo's only (2m1f)
This race isn't my usual hunting ground. 
This looks a tricky race for the punter. The fav is Majborough based on his promising debut when staying-on to be 3rd, and he's closely matched with Storm Heart who was 2nd in that race.  Personally, I don't think the winner of this is coming out of that race, which also cancels-out Kargesse who won, and Bunting who was 4th; these horses are too closely matched. I've had Nurburgring in my notebook since Xmas when he ran a cracker, giving weight away, to be 3rd to Kala Conti. Nurburgring is the horse with the most potential at today's trip and on the soft ground. I feel Majborough needs 2m4f already, and the others just aren't quick enough. 
William Hill offer 11/2 on Nurburgring, and there's plenty of 5/1 available; I'm having £5 win.

2:10pm County Hurdle (2m1f)
This is a difficult race. I was not happy Pied Piper (2nd in this race last year) didn't run in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, but he does run in this. It's a big ask to win this with 12st.  I feel trainer Gordon Elliott is using Pied Piper to allow a lesser-light a decent weight to run off. He has the race-fav King Of Kingsfield who has been running well in races similar to this and looks primed for a big run, but he's only 5/1. Dan Skelton, who won this last year with Faivoir, has had 4 winners this week, and is the handicap king at the Festival. Faivoir could emulate Langer Dan and become a double winner handicap winner, and the horses is in top form just failing to win the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. Skelton also has L'Eau Du Sud who looks to have been aimed at this race. However, I'm going left-field and Encanto Bruno trained by Gavin Cromwell also looks to have been aimed at this race since winning here over 2m4f last October. Kept quiet since, we know Cromwell can produce one on the day, and so long as he handles the ground, he won't be far away: odds of 33/1 are generally available and I'm having £2.50 eachway (6-places, 5th odds a place).
I would not put you off have a few win wagers on those heading the betting.

2:50pm Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (3-mile)
This looks like being another winner for Willie Mullins via the fav Readin Tommy Wrong, who looks a strong contender.  Personally, I don't think the 2nd-fav Gidleigh Park is the strongest of the British entries, I think it's Captain Teague, who has always been top-drawer, and looks sure to stay the trip well. There's 8/1 available (4-places, 5th odds a place) and I'm having £5 eachway; and I may well have Readin Tommy Wrong and Captain Teague in a Forecast.

3:30pm Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3m 2f)
Now that Shishkin is a non-runner, I feel that Galopin Des Champs is a near certainty to win this. Shiskin would have given the fav a race, of that there's no doubt following the win yesterday in the Ryanair Chase by Protektorat (beaten easily by Shishkin at Newbury LTO). The 2nd horse home is likely to be Fastorslow, as he's been consistently good over the past 12 months. There are some "exotic" markets on this race, and several bookies have odds to finish in the 1st-3 - so not an eachway wager (win & place), but place-only. To come 3rd maybe Bravemansgame, who was a good 2nd last year, and has been running a bit below that level since then but he's the only horse other that the fav and 2nd-fav who is (in my opinion) capable of running a high 160+ rating. 
William Hill offer 3/1 on Bravemansgame to be in the 1st-3, and I'm having £10 on.

That's it for me. I will probably watch the Hunter Chase and have a small wager on something (probably Premier Magic); and then I will head for the exit and the drive home.  It's been a great week.

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