In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
The master horseman Nigel Twiston-Davies (NTD) continued his terrific form yesterday, producing Major Malarkey to win off a 573-day break at Chepstow from a field of race-fit rivals. It reminded me of the win by Jump Jet about this time last year who he produced to win by 17-lengths off a 532-day break (beating the progressive Sound Stage), but he was unable to conjure up a similar performance from the horse in 6 subsequent races. The blog selection JUSTABOUT was unable to cope with the soft going (changed from good-to-soft due to sustained rain for over an hour before the race). In the circumstances (I couldn’t predict the going change when I wrote the blog in the morning) as JUSTABOUT has never shown any form in 4 runs on soft going, I am going to give the horse one last chance – but only on good going and over less than 3-mile.
That means the blog is now 4pts down for November.
The other horses mentioned on the blog did no better than the selection, tho’ PAVILLON BLEU was trying a trip that looked beyond his proven stamina and he was a gallant 2nd. SHADOW DANCER never got a look-in (I would expect the 5yo to revert to hurdles soon), but I was right that the fav Dan Breen wasn’t an “evens” chance – he actually started odds-on at 4/5 – and he finished 2nd.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Haydock and Towcester today.
Heavy rain forecast at Haydock and, with the ground already good-to-soft in places, it may be best to wait until closer to the race-times before making your selections there today. The 3-mile h’cap chase could turn into a real slog and you will need one that stays this trip and can handle rain-sodden going. Several are in with chances; DARK BEN who comes to hand early and won on his seasonal debut last November, is one. Ernst Blofeld and Maktu are both in with real chances on the formbook and I expect Jason Maguire will be looking for a winning return on Ernst Blofeld. But I think the weight they are both giving to DARK BEN may tell today.
GIFTED LEADER should have won more than one hurdle race last season. He’s on a fair mark of OR122 and should be fit for his trip to Aintree last week. Today’s 2-mile will suit, as will rain when it comes. Throw-in the talented Dougie Costello and we have the makings of a wager.
BORN AGAIN was a horse I noted last season who never seemed to stop improving. He was going well in his Festival race till a mistake put paid to his chances, and now he’s novice chasing. I’m hoping he’ll have learnt a lot from his debut run to make an impression here.
The finishing hill at Towcester is the graveyard of punters hopes. Many a leader at the final fence has been caught on the run-in, so ability to stay the trip (and more) is to be held at a premium. Jonjo O’Neill has a tremendous strike-rate in chases here (20 wins from 59 runners, or 34%) and he has two chasers running today; AZTEC TREASURE and FOXESBOW, both in the 3-mile chase at 2:20. I’ve never thought Foxesbow stayed 3-mile, but Aztec Treasure looks harshly-treated on OR92 as well. Looking thru’ this field, there are some dodgy characters and my eye is caught by SIR PETER. He’s not won a chase in 6 attempts, but he’s been held-back by his debut chase run when 3rd after which he was rated OR108. Now down to OR95 he looks fairly treated, and we know he stays 3-mile on soft/heavy as he beat Quattrocento at Exeter over hurdles in March-08. He appears to be a solid enough jumper who could grind out a win today. The only downside are the odds; just 5/1 (with Ladbrokes) and I would want more than 7’s for this race at least.
When you are having a poor run of wagers you can either rein-in the stakes, or double-up selections in a race, or just take a back-seat. Of the races and horse I’ve looked at, GIFTED LEADER has for me the most potential and looks the most fairly treated and today may be the day to catch him. At 6/1 he looks a fair proposition, but with money coming for Laredo Sound (who I think will want another half-mile to show his best form) you may get 7’s or more.
Selection:
Haydock 2:40 GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 (various, best odds guaranteed)
Current monthly points total = (-4.00pts)
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Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Wednesday, 3 November 2010
Vamizi 2nd - another near miss!
In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
Paul Nicholls had 1st & 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup with Tchico Polos and a rejuvenated Twist Magic. Somersby plugged-on to be 3rd having looked capable of winning on approaching the 2nd-last, but when he landed after that his effort quickly petered out. Prior to that he looked very strong and this run should bring him right up to race fitness NTO. Twist Magic hit a couple of fences hard (as he is apt to do as he’s never been the cleanest jumper of a fence) and with a cleaner round he could well have won. As for Chaninbar, ignore this run as he was left at the start and was 25-lengths adrift as the leaders jumped the 2nd fence; he had no chance at all – and let’s hope the starter got a good rollicking from connections of Chaninbar.
It was yet another 2nd for the blog selection when VAMIZI failed to hold-off the winner Iconoclast, and went down by ¾ of a length. He drifted to 9/2 before the off (which I took advantage of) and hit 1.40 in-running when he grabbed the lead on landing after the final fence. But he’d been making the pace thru’out the race and the effort told on what looked very soft going. Iconoclast had previously won on soft going over the 3-mile trip last January at Kempton beating some consistent handicappers. Then NTO - despite being 2nd-fav - he jumped poorly and was pulled-up. His last run was a fair effort in hindsight, and his rating today of OR121 looks lenient now. I would expect both these horses to come on for this run, and they both finished well clear of the 3rd (Son Histoire, who also ran a fair race) and can be expected to run well NTO. Unfortunately, that means the blog is now 3pts down for November, and it’s only the 3rd of the month!
The other horse mentioned on the blog, COURT IN MOTION, won his race in a canter @ 4/6.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Chepstow and Warwick today.
At Chepstow, previous blog selection JUSTABOUT runs again. LTO he looked like being involved in the finish till a mistake at the 2nd-last put paid to his chances. It’s 3-mile today and I did think a drop to 22f would suit him better, but trainer Charlie Tizzard must reckon he stays this trip as he’s entered for a 3m2f chase next Monday. We know the horse is fit, and can jump and is capable of winning off his mark of OR95. Current odds of 9/2 look fair as joint-fav Mister Wiseman has to prove his stamina at this trip, 3rd fav Dunkelly Castle looks weighted out of this, and it’s a big ask of Major Malarky to win off a 573-day break.
Phil Hobbs sent subsequent Welsh National winner Dream Alliance for the 3-mile hurdle last year, and perhaps he has similar intentions for PAVILLON BLEU. He does have stamina to prove tho’ and I may be tempted on a long-odds wager on Two Miles West who has won twice at this trip and can run a decent race if his mind is on it.
At Warwick, I made a note of SHADOW DANCER last season, and he did well on his novice chase debut last month to suggest he may prove hard to beat today. The short-priced fav is Dan Breen and if he takes to jumps today he should win (based on hurdles form) but the jumps game is not as straight-forward as that and 7/1 SHADOW DANCER and “evens” Dan Breen is not truly representive of their chances today – I’d have it 7/2 and 9/4 respectively.
Selection:
Chepstow 2:45 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 9/2 (various)
Current monthly points total = (-3.00pts)
Lastly, a plug for another blog I follow "Sprinterstogo" (see adjacent link) who hit the target with an 8/1 winner yesterday with resident tipster The Laird's only selection. Well done!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
Paul Nicholls had 1st & 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup with Tchico Polos and a rejuvenated Twist Magic. Somersby plugged-on to be 3rd having looked capable of winning on approaching the 2nd-last, but when he landed after that his effort quickly petered out. Prior to that he looked very strong and this run should bring him right up to race fitness NTO. Twist Magic hit a couple of fences hard (as he is apt to do as he’s never been the cleanest jumper of a fence) and with a cleaner round he could well have won. As for Chaninbar, ignore this run as he was left at the start and was 25-lengths adrift as the leaders jumped the 2nd fence; he had no chance at all – and let’s hope the starter got a good rollicking from connections of Chaninbar.
It was yet another 2nd for the blog selection when VAMIZI failed to hold-off the winner Iconoclast, and went down by ¾ of a length. He drifted to 9/2 before the off (which I took advantage of) and hit 1.40 in-running when he grabbed the lead on landing after the final fence. But he’d been making the pace thru’out the race and the effort told on what looked very soft going. Iconoclast had previously won on soft going over the 3-mile trip last January at Kempton beating some consistent handicappers. Then NTO - despite being 2nd-fav - he jumped poorly and was pulled-up. His last run was a fair effort in hindsight, and his rating today of OR121 looks lenient now. I would expect both these horses to come on for this run, and they both finished well clear of the 3rd (Son Histoire, who also ran a fair race) and can be expected to run well NTO. Unfortunately, that means the blog is now 3pts down for November, and it’s only the 3rd of the month!
The other horse mentioned on the blog, COURT IN MOTION, won his race in a canter @ 4/6.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Chepstow and Warwick today.
At Chepstow, previous blog selection JUSTABOUT runs again. LTO he looked like being involved in the finish till a mistake at the 2nd-last put paid to his chances. It’s 3-mile today and I did think a drop to 22f would suit him better, but trainer Charlie Tizzard must reckon he stays this trip as he’s entered for a 3m2f chase next Monday. We know the horse is fit, and can jump and is capable of winning off his mark of OR95. Current odds of 9/2 look fair as joint-fav Mister Wiseman has to prove his stamina at this trip, 3rd fav Dunkelly Castle looks weighted out of this, and it’s a big ask of Major Malarky to win off a 573-day break.
Phil Hobbs sent subsequent Welsh National winner Dream Alliance for the 3-mile hurdle last year, and perhaps he has similar intentions for PAVILLON BLEU. He does have stamina to prove tho’ and I may be tempted on a long-odds wager on Two Miles West who has won twice at this trip and can run a decent race if his mind is on it.
At Warwick, I made a note of SHADOW DANCER last season, and he did well on his novice chase debut last month to suggest he may prove hard to beat today. The short-priced fav is Dan Breen and if he takes to jumps today he should win (based on hurdles form) but the jumps game is not as straight-forward as that and 7/1 SHADOW DANCER and “evens” Dan Breen is not truly representive of their chances today – I’d have it 7/2 and 9/4 respectively.
Selection:
Chepstow 2:45 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 9/2 (various)
Current monthly points total = (-3.00pts)
Lastly, a plug for another blog I follow "Sprinterstogo" (see adjacent link) who hit the target with an 8/1 winner yesterday with resident tipster The Laird's only selection. Well done!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 2 November 2010
SOMERSBY to take Haldon Gold Cup
In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
More than once I’ve read that if you’re going to have a “bet”, don’t bother unless the stake means something. Yesterday, I thought FREE WORLD was worthy of a substantial wager, and I got it wrong.
I thought the horse was a sub-2/1 chance and that the horse with something to prove in the race was Riverside Theatre (the eventual winner). As such, when 4/1 was put up first by Stan James, and then by Corals, I jumped in with both feet. The horse looked (according to paddock observers) superb. It was the only runner of Paul Nicholls on the day, and the only ride for Ruby Walsh. It was Walsh who voiced the only concern, suggesting the horse may not stay the 2m4f trip. There was a minor jumping error early-on, but for the rest of the race he jumped well; and when he improved to dispute 2nd before the 3rd-last fence I thought “here goes”. Not to be – a blunder at that fence and his chance was dented, but his lack of effort thereon suggests he did not stay another yard. On reflection, Riverside Theatre merely had to run up to last season’s form to win this, and it was (in the end) a facile victory.
That made it a double for Nicky Henderson, who’s hurdler Working Title won the class 2 h’cap hurdle. He was aided considerably by the fall at the 2nd-last of Alderluck who was just leading at the time. There has been talk of Henderson’s horses being under a cloud (probably a rumour spread by those who had their money on Barbers Shop in the Charlie Hall last Saturday), but with 6 winners from his last 19 runners since 27th October (the last 5-days) his horses seem well-enough to me, and the odds of 2/1 to be top British jumps trainer have been trimmed to 7/4 this morning.
I’m sure I acknowledged the emergence of Neil Mulholland the other day, but I cannot find the reference now. Anyway, he had another winner y’day at Plumpton @ 20/1 with Just The Job. Mulholland is in tip-top form (as he was at this time last year) and, in the last 14-days, apart from Big Knickers who pulled-up (there's a joke in here somewhere!) when a 7/2 fav; from his other 9 runners he’s had 3 wins, 4 x 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th. He’s a man with a big future.
Today’s horseracing
We have the highlight of the Exeter season today with the Haldon Gold Cup over 2m1f &110yards.
I was on Tchico Polos at this meeting last year when he “stole” the novice chase by taking an extended lead early-on. I expect the same tactics will be used today but he was found out by SOMERSBY at Sandown over 2-mile and the 3lb pull he has will not be enough today. I expect SOMERSBY to win today, mainly as the others are all exposed and shown not to be up to this level – other than Twist Magic, but he is not racing at his beloved Sandown today. Looking at the betting, the one that jumps off the page is CHANINBAR who ran a cracker at Cheltenham 17-days ago over a trip half-a-mile too far for him (0 from 4). Dropped back to today’s trip will suit him, tho’ the going may be a bit on the soft side. Since returning to chasing he has improved leaps’n’bounds, and at 12/1 he could be value for a place.
Later on the card in the novice hurdle at 4:35 is a potential improver in COURT IN MOTION who is a half-brother to Bensalem (OR153 hurdles). Bensalem improved considerably in his 5-6yo season, and I’ve heard a rumour that COURT IN MOTION has come-on a bundle this summer. Current odds of 5/6 mean I cannot recommend him as a selection for the blog, but I would not put anyone off having a wager on him.
The h’cap chase over 3-mile at 3:35 looks a good opportunity for VAMIZI. The horse who beat him LTO, has won since and the form has held-up well. Today’s trip and going both suit VAMIZI and apart from Swing Bill who will run his usual solid race, it is difficult to see another challenger. Swing Bill looks to need some respite from the handicapper, and is one-paced. At current odds of 100/30, VAMIZI looks fair value.
Selection:
Exeter 3:35 VAMIZI, 1pt win @ 100/30 (various)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
More than once I’ve read that if you’re going to have a “bet”, don’t bother unless the stake means something. Yesterday, I thought FREE WORLD was worthy of a substantial wager, and I got it wrong.
I thought the horse was a sub-2/1 chance and that the horse with something to prove in the race was Riverside Theatre (the eventual winner). As such, when 4/1 was put up first by Stan James, and then by Corals, I jumped in with both feet. The horse looked (according to paddock observers) superb. It was the only runner of Paul Nicholls on the day, and the only ride for Ruby Walsh. It was Walsh who voiced the only concern, suggesting the horse may not stay the 2m4f trip. There was a minor jumping error early-on, but for the rest of the race he jumped well; and when he improved to dispute 2nd before the 3rd-last fence I thought “here goes”. Not to be – a blunder at that fence and his chance was dented, but his lack of effort thereon suggests he did not stay another yard. On reflection, Riverside Theatre merely had to run up to last season’s form to win this, and it was (in the end) a facile victory.
That made it a double for Nicky Henderson, who’s hurdler Working Title won the class 2 h’cap hurdle. He was aided considerably by the fall at the 2nd-last of Alderluck who was just leading at the time. There has been talk of Henderson’s horses being under a cloud (probably a rumour spread by those who had their money on Barbers Shop in the Charlie Hall last Saturday), but with 6 winners from his last 19 runners since 27th October (the last 5-days) his horses seem well-enough to me, and the odds of 2/1 to be top British jumps trainer have been trimmed to 7/4 this morning.
I’m sure I acknowledged the emergence of Neil Mulholland the other day, but I cannot find the reference now. Anyway, he had another winner y’day at Plumpton @ 20/1 with Just The Job. Mulholland is in tip-top form (as he was at this time last year) and, in the last 14-days, apart from Big Knickers who pulled-up (there's a joke in here somewhere!) when a 7/2 fav; from his other 9 runners he’s had 3 wins, 4 x 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th. He’s a man with a big future.
Today’s horseracing
We have the highlight of the Exeter season today with the Haldon Gold Cup over 2m1f &110yards.
I was on Tchico Polos at this meeting last year when he “stole” the novice chase by taking an extended lead early-on. I expect the same tactics will be used today but he was found out by SOMERSBY at Sandown over 2-mile and the 3lb pull he has will not be enough today. I expect SOMERSBY to win today, mainly as the others are all exposed and shown not to be up to this level – other than Twist Magic, but he is not racing at his beloved Sandown today. Looking at the betting, the one that jumps off the page is CHANINBAR who ran a cracker at Cheltenham 17-days ago over a trip half-a-mile too far for him (0 from 4). Dropped back to today’s trip will suit him, tho’ the going may be a bit on the soft side. Since returning to chasing he has improved leaps’n’bounds, and at 12/1 he could be value for a place.
Later on the card in the novice hurdle at 4:35 is a potential improver in COURT IN MOTION who is a half-brother to Bensalem (OR153 hurdles). Bensalem improved considerably in his 5-6yo season, and I’ve heard a rumour that COURT IN MOTION has come-on a bundle this summer. Current odds of 5/6 mean I cannot recommend him as a selection for the blog, but I would not put anyone off having a wager on him.
The h’cap chase over 3-mile at 3:35 looks a good opportunity for VAMIZI. The horse who beat him LTO, has won since and the form has held-up well. Today’s trip and going both suit VAMIZI and apart from Swing Bill who will run his usual solid race, it is difficult to see another challenger. Swing Bill looks to need some respite from the handicapper, and is one-paced. At current odds of 100/30, VAMIZI looks fair value.
Selection:
Exeter 3:35 VAMIZI, 1pt win @ 100/30 (various)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Monday, 1 November 2010
FREE WORLD: only runner for Nicholls & Walsh
In today’s blog:-
Today’s horseracing
October’s highlight’s
Today’s horseracing
There are a couple of decent jump meetings today at Kempton and Plumpton – why have both jump meetings in the South-East of England? In fact, there isn’t a meeting north of Birmingham until Haydock on Thursday – bonkers!
There are a couple of good races at Kempton, the highlight being the graduation chase at 3:10 over 2m4f & 110yards. There are 3 horses in this that I noted last season, Bakbenscher, Riverside Theatre and from my C&H Alert List, FREE WORLD. Today’s good going is likely to be too quick for Bakbenscher, tho’ he will stay this trip. I do have my doubts that Riverside Theatre will stay today’s trip, and he also has to give 3lb to FREE WORLD. I really like FREE WORLD and this small field could bring about an improved display of jumping which has been his undoing in recent runs. Odds of 7/2 look tremendous for a horse with bags of improvement to come and one that goes well when fresh. In my opinion, it will take a superlative performance to beat FREE WORLD at these weights and, take note, this is the only runner for Paul Nicholls today and the only booked ride for Ruby Walsh.
The race at 2:40, a handicap hurdle (class 2) also looks interesting. The fav Working Title is probably too short at 5/2, and I would favour his stable-mate Tasheba over him anyway. There’s been a move for Always Bold, and King’s Forest and Alderluck have claims too. For me, Working Title is a “lay”, as it’s too competitive to find a winner in this.
The meeting at my local track Plumpton is fair enough, but nothing jumps off the page at me. Venetia Williams sends just Mannlichen to the track for the opener at 12:50 and this could be a decent novice hurdler, so 9/2 looks fair value.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10 FREE WORLD, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
October’s highlight’s
October was a fairly quiet month on the selection front for the blog.
Even so, I did come up with a few cracking winners, and they weren’t all about racing either!
He may no longer best the World’s No.1 golfer, but Tiger Woods produced the best individual round of golf at the Ryder Cup and - as I predicted – ended up the joint-top US point’s scorer. If you took the advice and the odds of 11/2, you would have been rewarded with a 5.50pt profit.
Headline of the month was “TWICE OVER to make it twice over” and he did too, winning the Champions Stakes in style on a fantastic day for trainer Henry Cecil. I advised taking the odds of 9/2 in the morning (SP was 7/2).
Another winning wager was on SIR IAN (advised @ 7/2) who never looked in danger when winning. There were near misses with eachway wagers on OUZBECK (3rd @ 12/1) and ROCKITEER (2nd @ 11/1) and I feel that we can’t be far away from a winner at good odds soon to fill the coffers.
The Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List found the winners enclosure for the 1st time this season when WEIRD AL won yesterday, and there will be a lot more to come.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Today’s horseracing
October’s highlight’s
Today’s horseracing
There are a couple of decent jump meetings today at Kempton and Plumpton – why have both jump meetings in the South-East of England? In fact, there isn’t a meeting north of Birmingham until Haydock on Thursday – bonkers!
There are a couple of good races at Kempton, the highlight being the graduation chase at 3:10 over 2m4f & 110yards. There are 3 horses in this that I noted last season, Bakbenscher, Riverside Theatre and from my C&H Alert List, FREE WORLD. Today’s good going is likely to be too quick for Bakbenscher, tho’ he will stay this trip. I do have my doubts that Riverside Theatre will stay today’s trip, and he also has to give 3lb to FREE WORLD. I really like FREE WORLD and this small field could bring about an improved display of jumping which has been his undoing in recent runs. Odds of 7/2 look tremendous for a horse with bags of improvement to come and one that goes well when fresh. In my opinion, it will take a superlative performance to beat FREE WORLD at these weights and, take note, this is the only runner for Paul Nicholls today and the only booked ride for Ruby Walsh.
The race at 2:40, a handicap hurdle (class 2) also looks interesting. The fav Working Title is probably too short at 5/2, and I would favour his stable-mate Tasheba over him anyway. There’s been a move for Always Bold, and King’s Forest and Alderluck have claims too. For me, Working Title is a “lay”, as it’s too competitive to find a winner in this.
The meeting at my local track Plumpton is fair enough, but nothing jumps off the page at me. Venetia Williams sends just Mannlichen to the track for the opener at 12:50 and this could be a decent novice hurdler, so 9/2 looks fair value.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10 FREE WORLD, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
October’s highlight’s
October was a fairly quiet month on the selection front for the blog.
Even so, I did come up with a few cracking winners, and they weren’t all about racing either!
He may no longer best the World’s No.1 golfer, but Tiger Woods produced the best individual round of golf at the Ryder Cup and - as I predicted – ended up the joint-top US point’s scorer. If you took the advice and the odds of 11/2, you would have been rewarded with a 5.50pt profit.
Headline of the month was “TWICE OVER to make it twice over” and he did too, winning the Champions Stakes in style on a fantastic day for trainer Henry Cecil. I advised taking the odds of 9/2 in the morning (SP was 7/2).
Another winning wager was on SIR IAN (advised @ 7/2) who never looked in danger when winning. There were near misses with eachway wagers on OUZBECK (3rd @ 12/1) and ROCKITEER (2nd @ 11/1) and I feel that we can’t be far away from a winner at good odds soon to fill the coffers.
The Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List found the winners enclosure for the 1st time this season when WEIRD AL won yesterday, and there will be a lot more to come.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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