What a day on Saturday!

What a day Saturday was!
The blog really hit the target with sole “win” selection BINOCULAR winning like a real good thing, romping home with the rescheduled Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I advised taking the 11/4 available in the morning, and if you had hung-on you would have been able to obtain 3/1 at about midday. Then the money started to come in, and the selection started the 13/8 fav. The result was never in any doubt and BINOCULAR had the opposition struggling fully half a mile out. The advised 2pts win returned a profit of 5.50pts at 11/4.
Before that, blog selection ZANIR ran a cracker to be 4th at 16/1 in a hot handicap, having been advised at odds of 22/1 eachway in the morning. That advised wager returned a profit of 1.25pts (½pt @ 22/1, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4), and the horse looks primed for a big run at the Festival in March.
The King George did not produce a return from the eachway selection in the race PLANET OF SOUND. At one point the horse moved into 4th place with under a mile to run and I thought he’d stay on into a place, but not to be. That race saw the defending champion KAUTO STAR beaten into 3rd behind the Henderson pair of Long Run and Riverside Theatre.
I said in my Saturday blog before the race that I did not think that KAUTO STAR was an odds-on chance as so much was against it, and I really think the decisive factor was Ruby Walsh not being in the saddle (due to injury) and replaced by AP McCoy. Fine rider tho’ he is, McCoy is a “driver” who pushes his mounts into fences, whereas I reckon KAUTO STAR likes to be his own boss, setting his own rhythm. To me, he lost a lot of energy at his fences and it told in the final half-mile when he could not go on with the eventual winner. The return of Ruby Walsh could show that this was a “blip”, but racegoers have to be honest, the horse isn’t getting any younger and has now past his peak.
As for Long Run, I was fully against the horse before the race, as I did not think it would stay 3-mile in this company. Whether or not Kauto Star ran to form, Long Run stuffed the likes of Nacarat, Planet Of Sound, and Albertas Run in what looked a true run race. He was given an RPR rating of 180 for this, which initially I thought was a bit rich, but he is certainly worthy of a rating better than 170 based on this form. For me, the big surprise was the run of Riverside Theatre. He was held up for a long way and sent after the leaders from 3-out; for a first run over 3-mile, this run confirmed his stamina. My immediate reaction was to enquire for eachway odds about him for the Gold Cup, but he’s not entered – he’s in the Ryanair tho’.
My afternoon ended on a high when JAMES DE VASSY won the Lazarote Hurdle. The Coral Cup 3rd went into this lightly raced for a 6yo, but he loves these competitive handicaps as he was also 4th in the Greatwood Hurdle (behind Khyber Kim). I didn’t post him as a selection, but he was the only horse that I mentioned in the race.

I took a look at the antepost markets for the Festival on Saturday evening, in light of the results that afternoon. My aim was to put together some multiple bets, the focus being on the following races:-
Arkle / Champion Hurdle / Ryanair / Gold Cup.

Arkle: For me, there is only one horse in this with the form in the book, and what good form it is too! GHIZAO, currently at 6/1 looks head’n’shoulders better than anything we’ve seen in the 2-mile division.

Champion Hurdle: Despite the performance of Binocular, the proximity of Overturn dimmed the form for me. I know he won the Galway H’cap Hurdle (Grade A) with 11:8 in a canter, but he’s only got one way of running, all-out from the front. Henderson’s Eradicate (OR143) beat him at Haydock in the Swinton Hurdle last May and I’m sure he’d expect Binocular to easily beat Eradicate over 2-mile. As such, with Overturn’s trainer Don McCain firmly on the side of his other horse PEDDLERS CROSS, I’m supporting this unbeaten and as yet unfathomed horse as my Champion Hurdle selection at 6/1.

Gold Cup: This is a tricky market. I would not write off Kauto Star just yet, especially with Ruby Walsh back in the saddle but, having to rekindle his form in the Gold Cup, with Denman in opposition is not the easiest of tasks. Denman, in my opinion, ran a career best effort when 3rd in the Hennessey LTO. History will prove that was a superlative effort. But, he has already been shown not able to match IMPERIAL COMMANDER whose re-appearance was exceptional given that he was completely unextended and won as he liked. As such, I don’t give much weight to the proximity of Planet Of Sound in that race, even tho’ he was well beaten on Saturday behind Long Run. For me, the Gold Cup trip plays right into the hands of IMPERIAL COMMANDER and he’s my 3rd leg.

Ryanair: If you consider that it will be very difficult for Henderson and Waley-Cohen not to go for the Gold Cup in March now; and with Master Minded almost certain to contest the QMCC; POQUELIN at the head of the market looks in a very strong position. Tranquil Sea needs soft/heavy going to show his best, and he’s not as good as POQUELIN anyway. There is the possibility that J’VOLE will return to Cheltenham in March in top form, but that was a particularly good run for her and she always seems to find one a bit too good. As I wrote earlier, RIVERSIDE THEATRE is only entered for this race at the Festival and he’s 16/1 with Boylesports. I am doubling him up with POQUELIN for this as at those sort of odds, having 1st & 2nd will bring a decent payday.

Arkle: GHIZAO @ 6/1
Champion Hurdle: PEDDLERS CROSS @ 6/1
Ryanair: POQUELIN @ 9/2 and RIVERSIDE THEATRE @ 16/1
Gold Cup: IMPERIAL COMMANDER @ 7/2
That’s
9 x doubles @ ¼pt = 2¼pts
7 x trebles @ ¼pt = 1¾pts
2 x accumulators @ ½pt = 1pt
Total = 5pts staked

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History in the making?

Today is the day that Kauto Star attempts to make racing history by winning the King George chase at Kempton for a remarkable 5th time, which is as much a training performance for Paul Nicholls as an equine performance for the horse.

I will not be backing the horse at today's odds tho' as for me he is not an odds-on chance, but I will not be laying him either. The reasons I consider Kauto Star not to be an odds-on chance are:-
jockey - I do not believe that AP McCoy's style of riding is suitable;
going - it is soft in places, and it will be the 3rd chase race run over the track today, it will be cutting up;
recent form - my opinion (which differs from that of Ruby Walsh) is that the run at Down Royal was disappointing;
age - time marches on and, sooner or later, age will start to tell.

I have previously advised that the eachway market is full of value and I'm on PLANET OF SOUND @ 20/1. You may even be tempted by the without the fav market, which has PLANET OF SOUND at 8/1 (5th odds) with Paddy Power. The horse could come 4th (with KS in the 1st-3) and you'd still collect more money that a straight win bet on Kauto Star (should he win of course).

My sole win bet today is on BINOCULAR @ 11/4. He has drifted from 2/1 earlier this week, but given the recent form of his trainer Nicky Henderson (3 wins from 3 runners y'day and 17 wins from 41 runners in past 14-days) I very much doubt that this horse will appear today unprepared to do his best. The winner of the Christmas Hurdle today (so long as it's Binocular or Kyber Kim) will immediately become the 3/1 fav for the Champion Hurdle, so it may be worth taking the odds for that race before this is run today.

In the handicap hardle at 1:20, ZANIR from my alert list runs. This is a perfect opportunity for the horse, a competitive handicap on a RH track. Claimer Ian Popham is worth every ounce of his 5lb claim and at odds of 22/1 (Bet365, but lots of 20's available), he is an eachway chance. The gamble on Ski Sunday has distorted the market somewhat for this, so take advantage of the place value available.

Finally, James De Vassy ran a cracker to be 3rd in the Coral Cup at the last Festival, and today's Lanzarote at 3:35 is the sort of race this lightly-raced 6yo will relish.

Selections:
Kempton 1:20, ZANIR, ½pt each way @ 22/1 (Bet365)
Kempton 2:25, BINOCULAR, 2pt win @ 11/4
Kempton 3:00, PLANET OF SOUND, ½pt each way @ 20/1
Total 3pts staked

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Antepost advice for the King George

Yesterday I wrote that HOBBS DREAM would take all the beating, and I was right. Unfortunately, I did not post it up as a selection! My advice was to see if you could get 7/2 or longer (it being 5/2 at the time of posting the blog). I noted that the odds on the horse drifted to 100/30 about 15 mins before the race, so if any of you readers took that then well done to you. Once Shannon’s Boy fell at the 5th – and he was the only realistic opposition to the horse – the rest was a mere formality and HOBBS DREAM won by 24-lengths having been clear before 2-out.

Today’s racing at Musselburgh and Huntingdon looks uninspiring, so I’m giving it a miss completely and looking ahead to Saturday’s tremendous cards at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby.

The rescheduled King George takes place at Kempton and is the headline event on a 9-race card. Before that is the rescheduled Christmas Hurdle which sees the Champion Hurdle 1st & 2nd meet head-to-head for the first time since. I really cannot see Kyber Kim reversing places with Binocular, nor can I see Starluck holding off Binocular, now that the latter has the benefit of a seasonal debut. For me 2/1 Binocular looks fair value.

In the King George, there is no way I can oppose Kauto Star, but the race for 2nd place will be very interesting. Last year it was filled by Madison Du Berlais, but he seems to have lost the plot since then. I am convinced that Long Run does not stay 3-mile at this level, so I cannot have him. Ditto, Forpadydeplasterer, who has not won beyond 2m2f despite many efforts. I’m not sure what Riverside Theatre is doing in this race seeing as he looks potentially Henderson’s Ryanair entry – can’t have him. The one I like the look of is PLANET OF SOUND who outstayed Nacarat LTO behind Imperial Commander, and that looks the best form on offer here. Odds of 20/1 (Tote, Stan James) at quarter-odds a place 1-2-3 look very generous as, other than Kauto Star, the only other horse likely to beat him is The Nightingale, but that’s a big “if” and I’m not convinced about that one.

Selection:
ANTEPOST for the King George (15th January)
PLANET OF SOUND, ½pt each way @ 20/1 (Tote or Stan James)

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FLAT OUT looks Arkle prospect

We did not do too well last Saturday (8th January) with the 3 selections given. Both Silver By Nature and Exmoor Ranger were beaten by the pace of the race (in my opinion), and Silver By Nature would have probably preferred softer going as well.
The other blog selection Free World blundered his way around and was always struggling. For a horse with plenty of talent, he is now proving frustrating. He heads for the Victor Chandler at Ascot on 22nd January but, in this sort of form, he has no chance in that. The only good thing is that he’s been dropped 3lb to 149 and you have to remember that just over 12 months ago he only failed by 1¼ lengths to give 2lb and a beating to French Opera who went on to only just fail to win the Johnny Henderson Chase at the Festival off OR154 (raised 4lbs to OR158 for that effort). He looks a handicap snip, but he seems to have “mental” problems.

I was pleased with another horse noted last Saturday - PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE. As I said, he is on a great rating of OR138, but the trip on Saturday was far too short for him and he should never have been the 3/1 fav for that race. As such, coming 3rd was a tremendous effort, and he is now primed for a big run, hopefully over 3-mile.

There was also a cracking run in Ireland from FLAT OUT. I have been a fan of this horse since I watched it win its debut hurdle last February. Always well regarded at home by Willie Mullins, this horse has never failed him on the track. It was, after all, a tremendous effort to run 5th in the Supreme Hurdle last March in only his 2nd hurdle race, with only Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky in front of him. On that form he’s worthy of a 20/1 quote for the Champion Hurdle! He’s quoted at 20/1 for the Arkle in March and, before that, he goes for the Irish equivalent at Leopardstown on the 23rd Jan. This bold front-runner will join GHIZAO at the head of the market for the Arkle should he win at Leopardstown, and as such he’s worth an eachway punt at those odds. I think it is also very relevant that FLAT OUT has not (in my knowledge) ever been longer than 40’s on the exchanges for the Arkle.

The final horse noted on Saturday’s blog was Midnight Haze and he was going like a good’un before a broken blood vessel did for his chances. Not a good sign this, and a long period of rest will be required.

Back on 15th September 2010, I wrote this on the blog about my winning selection MUSIC OF THE MOOR: “As expected, the step-up in trip to 12f really suited, but I think it was the soft going that really made the difference as the horse cruised through it. Due to go hurdling this winter, he looks a great prospect for the winter scene”. Well, I should have read my own notes as the horse made his hurdling debut last Saturday at Sandown on heavy going and, despite a last hurdle blunder, he cruised to a commanding victory at 8/1. I may not have given you a winner, but I hope you’ll forgive me.

Nothing takes my eye at either of today’s jump meetings at Catterick and Hereford, tho’ HOBBS DREAM will take all the beating in the 1:40 at Hereford. Sir Winston is as game as they come, and will be on the premises, but he’s very one-paced. Much will depend on the attitude of lightly raced 9yo Shannon’s Boy, as even his trainer was surprised by his win LTO. If he comes on for that run then he’s going to go close, but if he bounces? All-in-all, 5/2 about HOBBS DREAM isn’t value, but if you can get 7/2 or longer grab it.

Selection:
ANTEPOST for the Arkle
FLAT OUT, ½pt each way @ 20/1 (Hills or Chandlers)

Lastly, I learned yesterday that BURTON PORT is out for the rest of the season, so the ½pt each way on him for the Gold Cup has been lost.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad