The 468th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I’m having a pretty rough time of it personally lately, and it’s taking a lot out of me. This is my favourite time of the year as a horseracing fan but, at the moment, I’m finding it difficult to generate enthusiasm. It’s likely that there will be no blog for the next few days as it’s my dear old mum’s funeral on Thursday and I will be travelling up to Liverpool for that tomorrow (Wednesday) and returning home on Friday. I do hope to have a blog on Saturday for the Grand National.
There are just a couple of flat racing meetings today and, as I’ve not looked at the flat yet, I’ll give them a miss. Once we have the Aintree meeting over on Saturday then I will do a recap of my tipping record for the 2011-12 jumps season, and from Monday I will concentrate on the flat.
I was disappointed to see Thursdays blog selection COOTEHILL beaten into 2nd. He hit the final fence hard when holding a slight advantage, but I’m not sure that cost him the race as the eventual winner Wessex King ran-on very well from the last fence. I overlooked Wessex King in this race which was a mistake. He’d won both his starts on good-to-firm going and I reckon the ground was faster than “good” at Ludlow last Thursday.
The Aintree meeting this week will be the final BBC televised Grand National meeting as, from next year, the meeting will be televised by Channel 4. The meeting opens with the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle featuring BIG BUCKS and it is unlikely that anything will trouble the champion staying hurdler. What is interesting is that Crack Away Jack is entered and has moved-on from Paul Nicholls to Tom George and this talented horse looks very well handicapped as a chaser. Later, the Betfred Bowl Chase over 3m1f looks a cracker and could provide a real turn-up of a result as plenty of these horses are entering unknown territory in terms of trip and class. The “Manifesto” novices chase over 2m4f looks tailor-made for CUE CARD, altho’ he may go for the Melling Chase over the same trip on Friday.
Saturday is all about the Grand National, and my early thoughts are to stick with one of my 3 selections in the race last year (when I advised Ballabriggs @ ½pt win, and ¼pt ew on both West End Rocker & The Tother One) and that is WEST END ROCKER. The likely soft going won’t phase him, he can jump the fences and he should stay the trip. The “National” is a race were it pays to be “in-the-van” as not many can get into contention from off the pace in the final circuit. I cannot really have any horses with a weight greater than 11st especially as it is likely that 30 of the 40 runners will be carrying less than 11st. Of those above the 11st thresh-hold, I do like PLANET OF SOUND who stays forever and will also handle the likely soft going. ACCORDING TO PETE definitely needs the going to be soft, but he’ll be up there and (providing he jumps the fences as he’s on the small side) he could sneak a place at 40/1. Another at the huge odds of 125/1 is MIDNIGHT HAZE who (for a 10yo) is lightly raced having had only 10 chase races of which he’s won 4. He likes to race prominently and he jumps well; he also stays 3-mile-plus and on just 10st he could give them all a run for their money. Remember, on Saturday morning it is likely that at least one bookmaker will offer eachway odds for 6-places on the race. So, we can look for long odds on some so-called no-hopers.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Thursday, 5 April 2012
Form your own opinion of betting markets
The 467th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Sometimes, when you are looking at the races, a wager of particular significance jumps out of the page at you. Yesterday (and I know I did not write a blog yesterday) such a wager came to my attention when I went thru' the day's runners in my local betting-shop (I was late for my morning train, hence I wasn't able to buy a Racing Post on the way to the office) at noon. It was at Hereford and in the 3:10 there – which was a 2m3f novice handicap chase – only 5 horses went to post. Of those, 3 had virtually no chance so it was a straight "match" between the proven chasing front-runner Chapel House, and the chasing debutant - the 5yo Getaway Driver. Given the situation I thought that CHAPEL HOUSE should have started the race at about 5/4 maybe even slightly odds-on at 10/11; therefore I was delighted to see 2/1 being offered at noon, and in the final minutes before the race I was able to obtain 3.70 (basically, odds of 5/2) on the exchanges. My 2pt stake was rewarded with a comfortable win that never looked in doubt from the off. I know that some will view this as after-timing, but I never recommend wagers on horses at odds less than 3/1 anyway so it would never have factored on the blog. The reason I'm writing about the race and the wager is that you have to make yourself aware of potential value in the betting markets at all times. I never look at the odds for a race before I've read the form. Once I have appraised the form and have a rudimentary odds-line for the race in my head; only then do I look at the odds.
The ability to appraise a race and allocate odds according to your own interpretation takes a bit of practise and a fair dollop of racing experience, it is not a skill picked-up overnight. It is tho', a skill worth developing and you should endeavour to form your own opinion of the betting markets in every race in which you have a wager, or consider having a wager in. In the past, I've used an odds-line spread-sheet attributing values to fitness, form and going (plus other factors such as jockey and trainer, course winner, distance winner and the X-factor) and then interpreting these values into odds. For instance, if you allocate values of 60 / 50 / 40 / 35 / 30 / 25 & 20 to the 7 runners in this example race, then the highest-rated at 60 would be fair value at odds of 100/30 (60 ÷ 260 = 23%) but good value at odds longer than 4/1. If the highest rated at 60 was at odds of 5/2 or shorter, then the best value in the race would be with another runner. If you prepare an odds-line spread-sheet, in my experience it is best to focus on the top-3 rated in your appraisal, for instance my allocation of the odds in the example race would be:
Top-rated @ 60 = 100/30 (60 ÷ 260 = 23%)
2nd-top @ 50 = 4/1 (50 ÷ 260 = 19%)
3nd-top @ 40 = 11/2 (40 ÷ 260 = 15%)
4th-top @ 35 = 13/2 (35 ÷ 260 = 13.5%)
If the actual odds were:
Top-rated = 5/2 (or 28.6% of the market)
2nd-top-rated = 9/2 (or 18.2% of the market)
3nd-top-rated = 7/2 (or 22.2% of the market)
4th-top-rated = 7/1 (or 12.50% of the market)
Then the "value" selection would be the 2nd top-rated at 9/2 with the 3rd top-rated a "lay" and possibly a "place-lay". This is a simplistic illustration of finding value in a race, but the principles are sound and never go out of fashion.
There is a good race today at Ludlow at 3:50. It's a 2m4f handicap chase and, as I write, the market is dominated by Marescsou – a recent French import running for the 2nd time in the UK for Venetia Williams – and Poliiteo who runs for trainer Nick Williams. Personally, I cannot see either of these horses winning this race unless they significantly improve on what they have shown recently. Politeo ran well last November over 2m3f at Ascot on good going and he will appreciate today's ground. The horse I like in this is the top-weight COOTEHILL who has run well all season and should be able to dominate the race from the front. Currently, he's 6/1 and I would have thought he should be a lot shorter odds for this race which looks fairly weak for the grade. He's more of a 4/1 chance in my book, and I'm having a small wager on him.
Selection:
Ludlow 3:50, COOTEHILL, ½pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sometimes, when you are looking at the races, a wager of particular significance jumps out of the page at you. Yesterday (and I know I did not write a blog yesterday) such a wager came to my attention when I went thru' the day's runners in my local betting-shop (I was late for my morning train, hence I wasn't able to buy a Racing Post on the way to the office) at noon. It was at Hereford and in the 3:10 there – which was a 2m3f novice handicap chase – only 5 horses went to post. Of those, 3 had virtually no chance so it was a straight "match" between the proven chasing front-runner Chapel House, and the chasing debutant - the 5yo Getaway Driver. Given the situation I thought that CHAPEL HOUSE should have started the race at about 5/4 maybe even slightly odds-on at 10/11; therefore I was delighted to see 2/1 being offered at noon, and in the final minutes before the race I was able to obtain 3.70 (basically, odds of 5/2) on the exchanges. My 2pt stake was rewarded with a comfortable win that never looked in doubt from the off. I know that some will view this as after-timing, but I never recommend wagers on horses at odds less than 3/1 anyway so it would never have factored on the blog. The reason I'm writing about the race and the wager is that you have to make yourself aware of potential value in the betting markets at all times. I never look at the odds for a race before I've read the form. Once I have appraised the form and have a rudimentary odds-line for the race in my head; only then do I look at the odds.
The ability to appraise a race and allocate odds according to your own interpretation takes a bit of practise and a fair dollop of racing experience, it is not a skill picked-up overnight. It is tho', a skill worth developing and you should endeavour to form your own opinion of the betting markets in every race in which you have a wager, or consider having a wager in. In the past, I've used an odds-line spread-sheet attributing values to fitness, form and going (plus other factors such as jockey and trainer, course winner, distance winner and the X-factor) and then interpreting these values into odds. For instance, if you allocate values of 60 / 50 / 40 / 35 / 30 / 25 & 20 to the 7 runners in this example race, then the highest-rated at 60 would be fair value at odds of 100/30 (60 ÷ 260 = 23%) but good value at odds longer than 4/1. If the highest rated at 60 was at odds of 5/2 or shorter, then the best value in the race would be with another runner. If you prepare an odds-line spread-sheet, in my experience it is best to focus on the top-3 rated in your appraisal, for instance my allocation of the odds in the example race would be:
Top-rated @ 60 = 100/30 (60 ÷ 260 = 23%)
2nd-top @ 50 = 4/1 (50 ÷ 260 = 19%)
3nd-top @ 40 = 11/2 (40 ÷ 260 = 15%)
4th-top @ 35 = 13/2 (35 ÷ 260 = 13.5%)
If the actual odds were:
Top-rated = 5/2 (or 28.6% of the market)
2nd-top-rated = 9/2 (or 18.2% of the market)
3nd-top-rated = 7/2 (or 22.2% of the market)
4th-top-rated = 7/1 (or 12.50% of the market)
Then the "value" selection would be the 2nd top-rated at 9/2 with the 3rd top-rated a "lay" and possibly a "place-lay". This is a simplistic illustration of finding value in a race, but the principles are sound and never go out of fashion.
There is a good race today at Ludlow at 3:50. It's a 2m4f handicap chase and, as I write, the market is dominated by Marescsou – a recent French import running for the 2nd time in the UK for Venetia Williams – and Poliiteo who runs for trainer Nick Williams. Personally, I cannot see either of these horses winning this race unless they significantly improve on what they have shown recently. Politeo ran well last November over 2m3f at Ascot on good going and he will appreciate today's ground. The horse I like in this is the top-weight COOTEHILL who has run well all season and should be able to dominate the race from the front. Currently, he's 6/1 and I would have thought he should be a lot shorter odds for this race which looks fairly weak for the grade. He's more of a 4/1 chance in my book, and I'm having a small wager on him.
Selection:
Ludlow 3:50, COOTEHILL, ½pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 3 April 2012
Heritage of World's greatest steeplechase
The 466th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
The jump season is now preparing for the finale of the Grand National meeting at Aintree next week. Being situated close to my home town of Maghull, the Grand National meeting has always been at the forefront of my racing thoughts. I did not know it at the time, but my early investigation into the history of the Grand National indicated that the initial running's of the great race were at a track at Maghull. This has subsequently proved to be incorrect (even tho' many books and even the Aintree Roll of Honour at the track states Maghull as the scene of the earliest runnings of the race). A great website at www.tbheritage.com details the earliest history of steeplechasing in the Liverpool area in some detail.
There was a racecourse at Maghull, and it was laid out on the ground that went on to form the playing field for my secondary school there (Ormonde Drive, now called Maghull high School). The area is criss-crossed with ditches so it would be no great surprise that the area was too marshy for horseracing to flourish. It did have a big advantage over the site of the track at Aintree tho' in its proximity to the hare-coursing grounds at Altcar where the Waterloo Cup was inaugurated in 1836. What most people nowadays fail to recognise was that Hare Coursing in the 1830's was the greatest spectator sport in operation. There was no football (the FA – Football Association – not being formed until 1863), nor cricket (the first County club being formed in Sussex in 1839) and tho' boxing drew huge crowds this was for the outlawed "bare-knuckle" prize-fighting. Hare coursing would be capable of drawing a crowd of 150,000 at its peak, who all stood out in the open walking across the fields and pole-vaulting the ditches to follow the action.
I'll be spending a bit of time this weekend looking at the form for the Grand National and producing a shortlist of potential winners. Hopefully, like last year, I will be able to focus on the one horse that goes on and wins the race. I remember last year that my early deliberations omitted eventual winner Ballabriggs as I thought he may lack the stamina to last out the extreme trip. But, on the eve of the race, I realised that being such a strong front-runner on going that clearly favoured those racing "in-the-van" was a far greater attribute than stamina and that he should be able to hold on to the advantage he had gained.
No selections today, as racing looks very ordinary.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
The jump season is now preparing for the finale of the Grand National meeting at Aintree next week. Being situated close to my home town of Maghull, the Grand National meeting has always been at the forefront of my racing thoughts. I did not know it at the time, but my early investigation into the history of the Grand National indicated that the initial running's of the great race were at a track at Maghull. This has subsequently proved to be incorrect (even tho' many books and even the Aintree Roll of Honour at the track states Maghull as the scene of the earliest runnings of the race). A great website at www.tbheritage.com details the earliest history of steeplechasing in the Liverpool area in some detail.
There was a racecourse at Maghull, and it was laid out on the ground that went on to form the playing field for my secondary school there (Ormonde Drive, now called Maghull high School). The area is criss-crossed with ditches so it would be no great surprise that the area was too marshy for horseracing to flourish. It did have a big advantage over the site of the track at Aintree tho' in its proximity to the hare-coursing grounds at Altcar where the Waterloo Cup was inaugurated in 1836. What most people nowadays fail to recognise was that Hare Coursing in the 1830's was the greatest spectator sport in operation. There was no football (the FA – Football Association – not being formed until 1863), nor cricket (the first County club being formed in Sussex in 1839) and tho' boxing drew huge crowds this was for the outlawed "bare-knuckle" prize-fighting. Hare coursing would be capable of drawing a crowd of 150,000 at its peak, who all stood out in the open walking across the fields and pole-vaulting the ditches to follow the action.
I'll be spending a bit of time this weekend looking at the form for the Grand National and producing a shortlist of potential winners. Hopefully, like last year, I will be able to focus on the one horse that goes on and wins the race. I remember last year that my early deliberations omitted eventual winner Ballabriggs as I thought he may lack the stamina to last out the extreme trip. But, on the eve of the race, I realised that being such a strong front-runner on going that clearly favoured those racing "in-the-van" was a far greater attribute than stamina and that he should be able to hold on to the advantage he had gained.
No selections today, as racing looks very ordinary.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 2 April 2012
End of an era
The 465th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Last week wasn't the best of weeks for me. Not only was I laid-low with a severe bout of the "flu" but, on Saturday 31st March at about 1:45pm, my dear old mum died at the age of 89.
Marjorie had not had an easy life. Born in 1922, she grew-up in the aftermath of the Great War in a world whose economy was ravaged by the Great Depression. Pleasures, such as they were, could only be simple ones for the youngest girl in a family of 6 children who was sent out to work in a laundry at 14 and, in going out to work, she was the only member of the household bringing a wage in. My mother's life started hard and never seemed to get any easier; but she always provided a dependable, solid, proud and determined outlook on life. She was always friendly and accepting of all-comers.
I'll miss my mum as she was always there providing a comfort, a refuge, a cup of tea and a chair to sit and be silent in.
She was very tired at the end, and I hope she woke yesterday morning to be greeted by a beautiful Spring day with birds singing, a light breeze rustling the new leaves and that the smile I knew and loved came out and lit the twinkle in her eye.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
Wayward Lad.
Last week wasn't the best of weeks for me. Not only was I laid-low with a severe bout of the "flu" but, on Saturday 31st March at about 1:45pm, my dear old mum died at the age of 89.
Marjorie had not had an easy life. Born in 1922, she grew-up in the aftermath of the Great War in a world whose economy was ravaged by the Great Depression. Pleasures, such as they were, could only be simple ones for the youngest girl in a family of 6 children who was sent out to work in a laundry at 14 and, in going out to work, she was the only member of the household bringing a wage in. My mother's life started hard and never seemed to get any easier; but she always provided a dependable, solid, proud and determined outlook on life. She was always friendly and accepting of all-comers.
I'll miss my mum as she was always there providing a comfort, a refuge, a cup of tea and a chair to sit and be silent in.
She was very tired at the end, and I hope she woke yesterday morning to be greeted by a beautiful Spring day with birds singing, a light breeze rustling the new leaves and that the smile I knew and loved came out and lit the twinkle in her eye.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
Wayward Lad.
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