The 468th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I’m having a pretty rough time of it personally lately, and it’s taking a lot out of me. This is my favourite time of the year as a horseracing fan but, at the moment, I’m finding it difficult to generate enthusiasm. It’s likely that there will be no blog for the next few days as it’s my dear old mum’s funeral on Thursday and I will be travelling up to Liverpool for that tomorrow (Wednesday) and returning home on Friday. I do hope to have a blog on Saturday for the Grand National.
There are just a couple of flat racing meetings today and, as I’ve not looked at the flat yet, I’ll give them a miss. Once we have the Aintree meeting over on Saturday then I will do a recap of my tipping record for the 2011-12 jumps season, and from Monday I will concentrate on the flat.
I was disappointed to see Thursdays blog selection COOTEHILL beaten into 2nd. He hit the final fence hard when holding a slight advantage, but I’m not sure that cost him the race as the eventual winner Wessex King ran-on very well from the last fence. I overlooked Wessex King in this race which was a mistake. He’d won both his starts on good-to-firm going and I reckon the ground was faster than “good” at Ludlow last Thursday.
The Aintree meeting this week will be the final BBC televised Grand National meeting as, from next year, the meeting will be televised by Channel 4. The meeting opens with the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle featuring BIG BUCKS and it is unlikely that anything will trouble the champion staying hurdler. What is interesting is that Crack Away Jack is entered and has moved-on from Paul Nicholls to Tom George and this talented horse looks very well handicapped as a chaser. Later, the Betfred Bowl Chase over 3m1f looks a cracker and could provide a real turn-up of a result as plenty of these horses are entering unknown territory in terms of trip and class. The “Manifesto” novices chase over 2m4f looks tailor-made for CUE CARD, altho’ he may go for the Melling Chase over the same trip on Friday.
Saturday is all about the Grand National, and my early thoughts are to stick with one of my 3 selections in the race last year (when I advised Ballabriggs @ ½pt win, and ¼pt ew on both West End Rocker & The Tother One) and that is WEST END ROCKER. The likely soft going won’t phase him, he can jump the fences and he should stay the trip. The “National” is a race were it pays to be “in-the-van” as not many can get into contention from off the pace in the final circuit. I cannot really have any horses with a weight greater than 11st especially as it is likely that 30 of the 40 runners will be carrying less than 11st. Of those above the 11st thresh-hold, I do like PLANET OF SOUND who stays forever and will also handle the likely soft going. ACCORDING TO PETE definitely needs the going to be soft, but he’ll be up there and (providing he jumps the fences as he’s on the small side) he could sneak a place at 40/1. Another at the huge odds of 125/1 is MIDNIGHT HAZE who (for a 10yo) is lightly raced having had only 10 chase races of which he’s won 4. He likes to race prominently and he jumps well; he also stays 3-mile-plus and on just 10st he could give them all a run for their money. Remember, on Saturday morning it is likely that at least one bookmaker will offer eachway odds for 6-places on the race. So, we can look for long odds on some so-called no-hopers.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Showing posts with label Ginger McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ginger McCain. Show all posts
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Saturday, 7 January 2012
Pasco to hurdle to victory
The 417th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I always find it interesting, having appraised the Saturday entries on a Thursday evening, just where the horses end up running – if they run at all. We have 3 interesting meetings today at Sandown, Wincanton and Newcastle, and hopefully by the end of this blog I am going to have a wager as I have not posted one since Boxing Day.
At Sandown, if the opening mares hurdle does not go to KAFFIE then something must have gone amiss. The soft going will really suit this front-running mare and if she does not win then she will only have herself to blame. Kells Belle and The Strawberry One both want going quicker than soft to show their best, and the others are outclassed and exposed. You can still get 7/4 in KAFFIE and that looks good to me as I would have her at slight odds-on. In the 2:05, I was going to go with top-weight Tanks For That who meets Rileyev on 5lb better terms than LTO and he looked to have the beating of that horse prior to falling in the race. It is a tight race tho and I am also taken with HOLD FAST who comes here (rather than Wincanton) and has a 12lb pull with Rileyev on their last meeting. Too close to call.
The Tolworth Hurdle looks tricky and, if pushed, I would go for PROSPECT WELLS for whom odds of 7/4 (Blue Square) could seem very generous later on.
For the feature race at 3:10, I cannot believe that QHILIMAR is 18/1 (William Hill). He is a C&D winner who has won on soft going, and while outclassed in the Hennessey off OR142, he races today off OR137 and he is capable of winning off this mark. He had no sort of race LTO on heavy going when unseating and he should enjoy the strong pace that will be set today which will be nothing like that he had to cope with in the Hennessey. I would have him at 7/1 for this race, maybe even shorter.
In the last race on the card we see Havingotascoobydo who I hoped would be chasing over 2m4f, but he runs in this 2-mile hurdle instead. I cannot have a wager on him in this, but he may well be worth a punt.
At Wincanton, as per yesterdays comments, in the opener REDBRIDGE REBEL for Phi Hobbs is worth a “place-only” wager. In the 2:50, PASCO is Paul Nicholls only runner at Wincanton and he could finally do the biz. He has nothing to fear in this race and could end his long losing run of 10 races back to Feb ’09. He should stay this trip and appreciate the going, as such 13/2 (Vic Chandler) looks worthwhile. In the 3:25, GALLOX BRIDGE looks an exciting handicap prospect and he looks thrown-in here off OR120 and Michael Byrne is worth every pound of his 5lb claim. Odds of 6/1 look very generous as I’d have him a lot shorter than that.
The only horse I’ll be watching (wagering?) today at Newcastle is in the last race, the bumper, and it’s MADAME BLAVATSKY who should prove too good for these.
Selections:
Wincanton 2:50, PASCO, 1pt win @ 13/2 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:35, GALLOX BRIDGE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
I think QHILIMAR is well worth an eachway wager, but this is a tough race and there may be one or two that are too good for him – or he may win!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I always find it interesting, having appraised the Saturday entries on a Thursday evening, just where the horses end up running – if they run at all. We have 3 interesting meetings today at Sandown, Wincanton and Newcastle, and hopefully by the end of this blog I am going to have a wager as I have not posted one since Boxing Day.
At Sandown, if the opening mares hurdle does not go to KAFFIE then something must have gone amiss. The soft going will really suit this front-running mare and if she does not win then she will only have herself to blame. Kells Belle and The Strawberry One both want going quicker than soft to show their best, and the others are outclassed and exposed. You can still get 7/4 in KAFFIE and that looks good to me as I would have her at slight odds-on. In the 2:05, I was going to go with top-weight Tanks For That who meets Rileyev on 5lb better terms than LTO and he looked to have the beating of that horse prior to falling in the race. It is a tight race tho and I am also taken with HOLD FAST who comes here (rather than Wincanton) and has a 12lb pull with Rileyev on their last meeting. Too close to call.
The Tolworth Hurdle looks tricky and, if pushed, I would go for PROSPECT WELLS for whom odds of 7/4 (Blue Square) could seem very generous later on.
For the feature race at 3:10, I cannot believe that QHILIMAR is 18/1 (William Hill). He is a C&D winner who has won on soft going, and while outclassed in the Hennessey off OR142, he races today off OR137 and he is capable of winning off this mark. He had no sort of race LTO on heavy going when unseating and he should enjoy the strong pace that will be set today which will be nothing like that he had to cope with in the Hennessey. I would have him at 7/1 for this race, maybe even shorter.
In the last race on the card we see Havingotascoobydo who I hoped would be chasing over 2m4f, but he runs in this 2-mile hurdle instead. I cannot have a wager on him in this, but he may well be worth a punt.
At Wincanton, as per yesterdays comments, in the opener REDBRIDGE REBEL for Phi Hobbs is worth a “place-only” wager. In the 2:50, PASCO is Paul Nicholls only runner at Wincanton and he could finally do the biz. He has nothing to fear in this race and could end his long losing run of 10 races back to Feb ’09. He should stay this trip and appreciate the going, as such 13/2 (Vic Chandler) looks worthwhile. In the 3:25, GALLOX BRIDGE looks an exciting handicap prospect and he looks thrown-in here off OR120 and Michael Byrne is worth every pound of his 5lb claim. Odds of 6/1 look very generous as I’d have him a lot shorter than that.
The only horse I’ll be watching (wagering?) today at Newcastle is in the last race, the bumper, and it’s MADAME BLAVATSKY who should prove too good for these.
Selections:
Wincanton 2:50, PASCO, 1pt win @ 13/2 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:35, GALLOX BRIDGE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
I think QHILIMAR is well worth an eachway wager, but this is a tough race and there may be one or two that are too good for him – or he may win!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 2 January 2012
Chilworth Lass runs at Plumpton
The 413th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
The start of a new year and I’m off to Plumpton.
Today, being part of the White diamond Racing Partnership, I’ll be watching our horse CHILWORTH LASS having her first run over hurdles in the opening race.
The going at Plumpton is heavy (soft in places) and that could be tough on the little mare. She is a game and resilient horse tho’, judging by her performances on the all-weather, and she could well handle the ground as her half-bro’ won on very soft going at Saint-Cloud in France over 1m2½f as a 4yo. Her dam’s half-sister also acted on soft going.
It will be a tough “ask” today as Alan King’s Balder Success could be a decent horse based on his sole run – and win – in France. Gary Moore’s Jodawes also looks a capable novice hurdler and comes here with experience. However, the rest of this field look nothing special at all, and the fact that CHILWORTH LASS receives at least 12lb from the others, and 19lb from both Balder Success and Jodawes means that I reckon the current 28/1 is worth a small eachway wager from me on the course.
The next couple of races I reckon I will pass over, but the 2m5f hurdle at 2:15 looks interesting. Most of these look real back-numbers but the latest run from PUR DE SIVOLA, who was a decent horse when with Alan King a few years back, suggests that he may go close in this. He likes to be up with the pace, which is no bad thing on going like today, and he has won on very soft going over 2m4f on hurdles at Taunton. For me, 14/1 looks too long and I’d have him at half those odds considering he’s 49lb below his peak NH rating of OR138.
The Sussex National at 2:45 will be a gruelling race, and so stamina will be the most important requirement. RATE OF KNOTS has won twice (from 3 starts ) on heavy going and can also stay this extreme trip (3rd in Kent National over 3m7f at Folkestone, btn 3-lengths). He is my selection in this race.
After that, if I’m still warm enough to stand up, then I’ll likely have a punt on GORING TWO in the 3:20 before calling it a day. GORING TWO is trained just up the road from Plumpton at Jevington near Eastbourne and Anna Newton-Smith does well with her runners at local tracks like Plumpton.
All the best to my readers, and let’s make 2012 a profitable year.
The start of a new year and I’m off to Plumpton.
Today, being part of the White diamond Racing Partnership, I’ll be watching our horse CHILWORTH LASS having her first run over hurdles in the opening race.
The going at Plumpton is heavy (soft in places) and that could be tough on the little mare. She is a game and resilient horse tho’, judging by her performances on the all-weather, and she could well handle the ground as her half-bro’ won on very soft going at Saint-Cloud in France over 1m2½f as a 4yo. Her dam’s half-sister also acted on soft going.
It will be a tough “ask” today as Alan King’s Balder Success could be a decent horse based on his sole run – and win – in France. Gary Moore’s Jodawes also looks a capable novice hurdler and comes here with experience. However, the rest of this field look nothing special at all, and the fact that CHILWORTH LASS receives at least 12lb from the others, and 19lb from both Balder Success and Jodawes means that I reckon the current 28/1 is worth a small eachway wager from me on the course.
The next couple of races I reckon I will pass over, but the 2m5f hurdle at 2:15 looks interesting. Most of these look real back-numbers but the latest run from PUR DE SIVOLA, who was a decent horse when with Alan King a few years back, suggests that he may go close in this. He likes to be up with the pace, which is no bad thing on going like today, and he has won on very soft going over 2m4f on hurdles at Taunton. For me, 14/1 looks too long and I’d have him at half those odds considering he’s 49lb below his peak NH rating of OR138.
The Sussex National at 2:45 will be a gruelling race, and so stamina will be the most important requirement. RATE OF KNOTS has won twice (from 3 starts ) on heavy going and can also stay this extreme trip (3rd in Kent National over 3m7f at Folkestone, btn 3-lengths). He is my selection in this race.
After that, if I’m still warm enough to stand up, then I’ll likely have a punt on GORING TWO in the 3:20 before calling it a day. GORING TWO is trained just up the road from Plumpton at Jevington near Eastbourne and Anna Newton-Smith does well with her runners at local tracks like Plumpton.
All the best to my readers, and let’s make 2012 a profitable year.
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Venetia Williams back on form
The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 21 October 2011
Saturday lookahead
The 362nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Two selections for the blog yesterday with RAPID INCREASE taking 3rd place and the each-way spoils. Advised at 10/1 (SP 8/1), that’s 1.50pts profit (at quarter-odds).
The winner Horsham Lad had the benefit of a very lenient mark, and the front-3 pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a race run at a testing gallop. All-in-all, a good effort from the selection and he goes back into my private alert list. If he reappears over an extra couple of furlongs he will be very interesting.
Unfortunately, the other selection, GOING WRONG, was 4th and missed out on a place only for lack of fitness and so 2pts lost there, meaning an overall ½pt loss on the day. On reflection, this looks a strong race (despite my comments in the blog yesterday) and GOING WRONG is one I’ll keep an eye out for when he runs next, especially if he steps up in trip to 2m4f+, and it could pay to keep an eye out all the 1st-4 home in this race.
Just a solitary jump meeting at Fakenham today and tho’ there are a couple of decent handicaps being run there, the fields are small and the races could get tactical.
Looking ahead to Saturday, and the meeting at Aintree is the first major meeting of the jumps season with the highlight being the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. MASTER MINDED stands out in this race and I would be very surprised if anything in the race can challenge him. That said, he is his own worst enemy and can idle when in front which, given the new “whip” rules could make things interesting after the final fence.
The opening hurdle over 2m1f is one that should be watched as recent winners have done extremely well in follow-up races. From the early entries, one I like the look of is HIGHWAY CODE who is sent by Richard Lee, and he won the race in 2006.
The Veteran’s handicap over 3m1f could be interesting. I have been following DOUBLE DIZZY for a couple of seasons as when he’s in the mood he can run a big race, and this looks his sort of opportunity.
There are a couple of my old fav’s entered later in the afternoon; in the 4:05 SOUND STAGE makes his seasonal debut. He was given only 3-runs last season, but each was a solid effort, and I’m sure Caroline Keevil will have this horse fit to do the business. Then, we have another from last season’s Horses to Follow list – PICKAMUS.
The meeting at Chepstow opens with a 3-mile maiden hurdle that has been won by some decent horses in recent years, so another race to have your notebook handy. Later on, the Persian War Novices Hurdle over 2m4f looks a cracker and it is a race Paul Nichols has won 3 times in the past 4 years. However, I will probably be looking for the winner of the 4:50, a 2m½f class 2 h’cap chase.
The other jumps meeting on Saturday is at Stratford and it has a couple of interesting handicaps.
I will be watching the Doncaster meeting, but I doubt I will be having a wager there. I am more interested in the flat meeting at Newbury which has, what looks to be, a cracking card.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Two selections for the blog yesterday with RAPID INCREASE taking 3rd place and the each-way spoils. Advised at 10/1 (SP 8/1), that’s 1.50pts profit (at quarter-odds).
The winner Horsham Lad had the benefit of a very lenient mark, and the front-3 pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a race run at a testing gallop. All-in-all, a good effort from the selection and he goes back into my private alert list. If he reappears over an extra couple of furlongs he will be very interesting.
Unfortunately, the other selection, GOING WRONG, was 4th and missed out on a place only for lack of fitness and so 2pts lost there, meaning an overall ½pt loss on the day. On reflection, this looks a strong race (despite my comments in the blog yesterday) and GOING WRONG is one I’ll keep an eye out for when he runs next, especially if he steps up in trip to 2m4f+, and it could pay to keep an eye out all the 1st-4 home in this race.
Just a solitary jump meeting at Fakenham today and tho’ there are a couple of decent handicaps being run there, the fields are small and the races could get tactical.
Looking ahead to Saturday, and the meeting at Aintree is the first major meeting of the jumps season with the highlight being the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. MASTER MINDED stands out in this race and I would be very surprised if anything in the race can challenge him. That said, he is his own worst enemy and can idle when in front which, given the new “whip” rules could make things interesting after the final fence.
The opening hurdle over 2m1f is one that should be watched as recent winners have done extremely well in follow-up races. From the early entries, one I like the look of is HIGHWAY CODE who is sent by Richard Lee, and he won the race in 2006.
The Veteran’s handicap over 3m1f could be interesting. I have been following DOUBLE DIZZY for a couple of seasons as when he’s in the mood he can run a big race, and this looks his sort of opportunity.
There are a couple of my old fav’s entered later in the afternoon; in the 4:05 SOUND STAGE makes his seasonal debut. He was given only 3-runs last season, but each was a solid effort, and I’m sure Caroline Keevil will have this horse fit to do the business. Then, we have another from last season’s Horses to Follow list – PICKAMUS.
The meeting at Chepstow opens with a 3-mile maiden hurdle that has been won by some decent horses in recent years, so another race to have your notebook handy. Later on, the Persian War Novices Hurdle over 2m4f looks a cracker and it is a race Paul Nichols has won 3 times in the past 4 years. However, I will probably be looking for the winner of the 4:50, a 2m½f class 2 h’cap chase.
The other jumps meeting on Saturday is at Stratford and it has a couple of interesting handicaps.
I will be watching the Doncaster meeting, but I doubt I will be having a wager there. I am more interested in the flat meeting at Newbury which has, what looks to be, a cracking card.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 18 October 2011
The BHA vs PJA
The 359th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but it was an informative day for horseracing.
Firstly, many thanks to the 21 readers of the blog who ticked one of the reaction boxes. According to my stats page, yesterday’s page was viewed (and hopefully read) by 41 visitors. There were a total of 499 “hits” on the blog, of which 287 came from 2 websites (one in the USA and one in Vietnam). This couple of websites have been flooding my blog with “pings” for about 3 weeks and I don’t know why or how to stop it. The balance of 171 “hits” is the usual background noise of the internet – search engines (I assume) pinging the blog when one of the labels is mentioned in a search on google or yahoo etc.
The BHA (British Horseracing Authority) met the PJA (Professional Jockeys Association) yesterday to discuss the implications of the whip rules. I expect that the whip rules are here to stay and there will be little (if any) respite. What I would expect there to be is a re-dressing of the penalties for infringements. Something along the lines of:-
Whip-use +1 (ie, 6 strikes in final furlong): jky caution & fine of 50% of riding fee/winnings;
Whip-use +2: Jockey gets 2-day ban & 75% fine;
Whip-use +3: Jockey gets 3-day ban & 100% fine;
Whip-use +4 and over: Jockey gets a day for every over-use of the whip.
At the moment, I feel the punishments levied have been draconian and unless the punishment is tempered then there will be trouble ahead.
The jump racing at Exeter is poorly attended today, probably due to the good-to-firm going. There is only one horse from my Alert List running, and it is CAPTAIN DASH in the 3:40 (won on Friday in a canter). There is a front-runner in the race who could set a fast early pace - Run Along Boy - and he may take some catching. It is a pity there are only 6 running as the rank outsider - Consulate - looked like he was recapturing some form LTO and he'll be staying-on. All-in-all, I cannot have CAPTAIN DASH at 13/8 as I think he’s more of a 9/4 chance. Being a hold-up horse early-on, he will likely trade much longer in-running and I may leave a small wager on after the off (say at 9.00) and see if it’s taken.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but it was an informative day for horseracing.
Firstly, many thanks to the 21 readers of the blog who ticked one of the reaction boxes. According to my stats page, yesterday’s page was viewed (and hopefully read) by 41 visitors. There were a total of 499 “hits” on the blog, of which 287 came from 2 websites (one in the USA and one in Vietnam). This couple of websites have been flooding my blog with “pings” for about 3 weeks and I don’t know why or how to stop it. The balance of 171 “hits” is the usual background noise of the internet – search engines (I assume) pinging the blog when one of the labels is mentioned in a search on google or yahoo etc.
The BHA (British Horseracing Authority) met the PJA (Professional Jockeys Association) yesterday to discuss the implications of the whip rules. I expect that the whip rules are here to stay and there will be little (if any) respite. What I would expect there to be is a re-dressing of the penalties for infringements. Something along the lines of:-
Whip-use +1 (ie, 6 strikes in final furlong): jky caution & fine of 50% of riding fee/winnings;
Whip-use +2: Jockey gets 2-day ban & 75% fine;
Whip-use +3: Jockey gets 3-day ban & 100% fine;
Whip-use +4 and over: Jockey gets a day for every over-use of the whip.
At the moment, I feel the punishments levied have been draconian and unless the punishment is tempered then there will be trouble ahead.
The jump racing at Exeter is poorly attended today, probably due to the good-to-firm going. There is only one horse from my Alert List running, and it is CAPTAIN DASH in the 3:40 (won on Friday in a canter). There is a front-runner in the race who could set a fast early pace - Run Along Boy - and he may take some catching. It is a pity there are only 6 running as the rank outsider - Consulate - looked like he was recapturing some form LTO and he'll be staying-on. All-in-all, I cannot have CAPTAIN DASH at 13/8 as I think he’s more of a 9/4 chance. Being a hold-up horse early-on, he will likely trade much longer in-running and I may leave a small wager on after the off (say at 9.00) and see if it’s taken.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 21 September 2011
A time to bet like men
The 340th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
From time-to-time it pays to look back at recent events and take stock to see where you did things right and where it went wrong. I was particularly enamoured by the recent series of articles on successful “modern” punters – however, only Patrick Veitch was the only one to tick the box of being truly “modern-day”.
I’ve been punting on horses since I was 7-years-old, my first wager being a “bob” each-way on Ribocco ridden by L. Piggott in the 1967 Derby won by Royal Palace (Ribocco was 2nd so I turned a tiny profit – and the “seed” had been sown!). In the intervening years, I have always maintained and interest in horseracing, both flat and jumps. When I started working at the age of 20 in 1980, I immediately found a good use for the incoming wages tho’ success was sporadic as I insisted on having multiple bets. My favourite was a “Yankee” – and I had all 4 selections win for me once which brought-in the equivalent of a full weeks wages. However, experience has taught me that the only way to truly win is to have a significant amount on a horse that is under-valued by the markets and to get your money (proper money) down.
I think I read in a book by Clement Freud that his maxim was “don’t have a bet unless losing would hurt (financially)”. In other words, don’t have a token £10 each-way. If you are going to have a “bet”, do it properly and have a day’s wages (or the equivalent) on it. That is, if you are on £40,000 a year and take home (after tax and NIC) £550 a week (or £2,200 a month), then your minimum bet should be £110 – which is a day’s wages. If you’re not confident enough to do that – and confidence is a huge factor in playing the horses – then don’t place the bet.
In doing this you will learn several important lessons very quickly. (1) Discipline – unless you are made of money and you have so much it means nothing to you then, if you stick to the “day’s wages” rule, you won’t squander your valuable hard-earned on trivial wagers. You will develop the discipline to wait until an opportunity arrives. (2) Race-reading – if you are not betting on multiple races then you will (hopefully) watch them instead without a financial interest. As such, you will learn to race-read. It is only natural to focus your attention on the horse carrying your wager, and so miss other potential developments in the same race. Watch as much racing as you can and learn from it. (3) Character – not everyone is born to be a gambler, and gambling’s gut-instinct is not something that can be learned. If you cannot bring yourself to “put the money down” then really and truly, playing the horses is not for you. We are all capable of making valued judgements and we do it regularly when buying a car or house, or in choosing partner or a new job offer over another. It is another part of character that goes beyond these decisions as with gambling it’s all or nothing. You want a losing wager to hurt, but not so much you cannot recover from it and that it makes you feel bitter.
What took me to writing this was a race yesterday at Newton Abbot. Regular readers of the blog will know that last jumps season I posted a “Horses-to-Follow” list, nominating horses with potential to improve. By the looks of it, I spotted the potential a year too soon in some of them as Absolute Shambles has recently completed a hat-trick of wins during the summer months, and yesterday another from the list won – QHILIMAR. When looking at the following days races on Monday evening, QHILIMAR jumped-out at me as he had the right trip looked well-in off OR127. At the time, he had been price-up by one bookmaker at 10/1, but was between 8/1 – 9/1 with a few others. Given he’s won when fresh several times I considered him a 4/1 chance in the odds-line I prepared. I thought I’d leave it overnight before having a wager and see what the morning brought – wrong move! By the time I checked on oddschecker at 9:30am, the “value” had gone and the best I could find was 11/2. Although I felt confident in the horse’s ability, my confidence did not match my character to have a wager at my minimum stakes. Your see, even today, over 40 years since my first wager, I still sometimes lack the confidence to bet like a man.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
From time-to-time it pays to look back at recent events and take stock to see where you did things right and where it went wrong. I was particularly enamoured by the recent series of articles on successful “modern” punters – however, only Patrick Veitch was the only one to tick the box of being truly “modern-day”.
I’ve been punting on horses since I was 7-years-old, my first wager being a “bob” each-way on Ribocco ridden by L. Piggott in the 1967 Derby won by Royal Palace (Ribocco was 2nd so I turned a tiny profit – and the “seed” had been sown!). In the intervening years, I have always maintained and interest in horseracing, both flat and jumps. When I started working at the age of 20 in 1980, I immediately found a good use for the incoming wages tho’ success was sporadic as I insisted on having multiple bets. My favourite was a “Yankee” – and I had all 4 selections win for me once which brought-in the equivalent of a full weeks wages. However, experience has taught me that the only way to truly win is to have a significant amount on a horse that is under-valued by the markets and to get your money (proper money) down.
I think I read in a book by Clement Freud that his maxim was “don’t have a bet unless losing would hurt (financially)”. In other words, don’t have a token £10 each-way. If you are going to have a “bet”, do it properly and have a day’s wages (or the equivalent) on it. That is, if you are on £40,000 a year and take home (after tax and NIC) £550 a week (or £2,200 a month), then your minimum bet should be £110 – which is a day’s wages. If you’re not confident enough to do that – and confidence is a huge factor in playing the horses – then don’t place the bet.
In doing this you will learn several important lessons very quickly. (1) Discipline – unless you are made of money and you have so much it means nothing to you then, if you stick to the “day’s wages” rule, you won’t squander your valuable hard-earned on trivial wagers. You will develop the discipline to wait until an opportunity arrives. (2) Race-reading – if you are not betting on multiple races then you will (hopefully) watch them instead without a financial interest. As such, you will learn to race-read. It is only natural to focus your attention on the horse carrying your wager, and so miss other potential developments in the same race. Watch as much racing as you can and learn from it. (3) Character – not everyone is born to be a gambler, and gambling’s gut-instinct is not something that can be learned. If you cannot bring yourself to “put the money down” then really and truly, playing the horses is not for you. We are all capable of making valued judgements and we do it regularly when buying a car or house, or in choosing partner or a new job offer over another. It is another part of character that goes beyond these decisions as with gambling it’s all or nothing. You want a losing wager to hurt, but not so much you cannot recover from it and that it makes you feel bitter.
What took me to writing this was a race yesterday at Newton Abbot. Regular readers of the blog will know that last jumps season I posted a “Horses-to-Follow” list, nominating horses with potential to improve. By the looks of it, I spotted the potential a year too soon in some of them as Absolute Shambles has recently completed a hat-trick of wins during the summer months, and yesterday another from the list won – QHILIMAR. When looking at the following days races on Monday evening, QHILIMAR jumped-out at me as he had the right trip looked well-in off OR127. At the time, he had been price-up by one bookmaker at 10/1, but was between 8/1 – 9/1 with a few others. Given he’s won when fresh several times I considered him a 4/1 chance in the odds-line I prepared. I thought I’d leave it overnight before having a wager and see what the morning brought – wrong move! By the time I checked on oddschecker at 9:30am, the “value” had gone and the best I could find was 11/2. Although I felt confident in the horse’s ability, my confidence did not match my character to have a wager at my minimum stakes. Your see, even today, over 40 years since my first wager, I still sometimes lack the confidence to bet like a man.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 19 September 2011
Ginger McCain - National Legend
The 339th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
When the Grand National was floundering due to bad (not poor, plain bad) management and chronic under-investment in the early 1970’s, staring oblivion in the face; it required a unique combination of characters to save it. From stables hidden behind a garage in nearby Southport emerged a saviour and his protégé - Ginger McCain and Red Rum, a horse trained on the beach at low-tide, and perhaps the greatest jockey ever to ride the National course, Brian Fletcher.
I doubt many people under the age of 50 (60 even) today understand just how dire the situation was at Aintree, home of the greatest horserace on the planet: the Grand National. The last “development” at the track had occurred before the First World War and, like the ill-fated Titanic, Aintree was now (in 1973) captained by the inadequate Bill Davies of the Walton Group. He had purchased the course from the Topham family who had owned it for 125 years and it was no secret that his ultimate aim was to build a housing estate on the course. Aintree was on-course for its own iceberg. The attendance for Grand National day in 1973 was estimated at 5,000 (compare that with the estimated 100,000-plus at Aintree to watch in 2011).
And so the stage was set for perhaps the most dramatic Grand National of all time. Forget the pile-up at the 23rd fence in 1967. The Devon Loch incident of 1956 would be surpassed. The Grand National of 1973 featured the brilliance of the 2-mile globe-trotting New Zealand-bred chaser ‘Crisp’ with that of the rags-to-riches Red Rum.
Crisp knew only one way to run a race: boldly from the front at full pace, and so he did quickly establishing a 20+ length lead. Red Rum was a battler who was there for the long-haul, and he ran much of the 1st-circuit with the leaders of the following “peloton”. However, jumping the “Chair” before heading out for the 2nd circuit, jockey Brian Fletcher knew he had to go for it to have any chance of catching Crisp who was now probably 30-lengths ahead, full of running and jumping the fences like a stag. Watch a replay of the race and you will soon realise that Red Rum was galloping at full speed for the whole of the 2nd circuit, jumping fences with unnerving courage, and still not reducing the advantage held by Crisp.
It could not go on. After 4-miles the pace and the trip covered started to take its toll on the leader. Jumping the final fence, Crisp began to waver. To watch now is both heart-breaking and exhilarating. Crisp; a spent force struggling to hold a straight line. Red Rum; neck outstretched, galloping relentlessly on.
To the victor, the spoils! Red Rum, ridden by Brain Fletcher, trained by Ginger McCain were the names that went into the record books.
Despite being an outspoken chauvinist who was totally politically incorrect, McCain had the ability to keep Red Rum fit and well for another 4 attempts at the National. Because of his personality, McCain was almost certainly an embarrassment to “the establishment”. However, he managed to keep the National in the news, always prepared to comment on whatever developments took place and, for that; horseracing owes him a debt of gratitude.
When the Grand National was floundering due to bad (not poor, plain bad) management and chronic under-investment in the early 1970’s, staring oblivion in the face; it required a unique combination of characters to save it. From stables hidden behind a garage in nearby Southport emerged a saviour and his protégé - Ginger McCain and Red Rum, a horse trained on the beach at low-tide, and perhaps the greatest jockey ever to ride the National course, Brian Fletcher.
I doubt many people under the age of 50 (60 even) today understand just how dire the situation was at Aintree, home of the greatest horserace on the planet: the Grand National. The last “development” at the track had occurred before the First World War and, like the ill-fated Titanic, Aintree was now (in 1973) captained by the inadequate Bill Davies of the Walton Group. He had purchased the course from the Topham family who had owned it for 125 years and it was no secret that his ultimate aim was to build a housing estate on the course. Aintree was on-course for its own iceberg. The attendance for Grand National day in 1973 was estimated at 5,000 (compare that with the estimated 100,000-plus at Aintree to watch in 2011).
And so the stage was set for perhaps the most dramatic Grand National of all time. Forget the pile-up at the 23rd fence in 1967. The Devon Loch incident of 1956 would be surpassed. The Grand National of 1973 featured the brilliance of the 2-mile globe-trotting New Zealand-bred chaser ‘Crisp’ with that of the rags-to-riches Red Rum.
Crisp knew only one way to run a race: boldly from the front at full pace, and so he did quickly establishing a 20+ length lead. Red Rum was a battler who was there for the long-haul, and he ran much of the 1st-circuit with the leaders of the following “peloton”. However, jumping the “Chair” before heading out for the 2nd circuit, jockey Brian Fletcher knew he had to go for it to have any chance of catching Crisp who was now probably 30-lengths ahead, full of running and jumping the fences like a stag. Watch a replay of the race and you will soon realise that Red Rum was galloping at full speed for the whole of the 2nd circuit, jumping fences with unnerving courage, and still not reducing the advantage held by Crisp.
It could not go on. After 4-miles the pace and the trip covered started to take its toll on the leader. Jumping the final fence, Crisp began to waver. To watch now is both heart-breaking and exhilarating. Crisp; a spent force struggling to hold a straight line. Red Rum; neck outstretched, galloping relentlessly on.
To the victor, the spoils! Red Rum, ridden by Brain Fletcher, trained by Ginger McCain were the names that went into the record books.
Despite being an outspoken chauvinist who was totally politically incorrect, McCain had the ability to keep Red Rum fit and well for another 4 attempts at the National. Because of his personality, McCain was almost certainly an embarrassment to “the establishment”. However, he managed to keep the National in the news, always prepared to comment on whatever developments took place and, for that; horseracing owes him a debt of gratitude.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)