This is it, the Grand National and the culmination of a tremendous season on the jumps for the Wayward Lad blog. Yesterdays selection La Vaticane ran very well, and was coaxed into the race looking likely to be in the 1st-4 crossing Melling Road (he touched 3.55 in-running on the exchanges from a "high" of 55) but he ran out of steam and
The ground is likely to be more good-to-soft than soft on the National course, and I have already reviewed the field of 40 runners on an earlier blog (on Wednesday). From that review, I came up with a shortlist of 7 runners:
My shortlist for the Grand National:
Silviniaco Conti - In 2012, Paul Nicholls sent Neptune Collonges to win the race, and this year he sends a better horse in Silviniaco Conti to try and repeat that win. "Conti" loves Aintree, as he's won the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl twice, and he's shown he's as good as ever this season. He's not quite at home around Cheltenham but, like Kempton, this flat Aintree track brings out the best in him. Receiving 2lb from Many Clouds, should they both finish I'd expect "Conti" to be about 5-lengths in front. There is some debate that he does not stay the Gold Cup trip but my impression is that he's a one-paced, resolute galloper. He ran 4th in the 2014 Gold Cup, and was a disappointing 7th in the 2015 Gold Cup (behind Holywell). He looks the sort who could win this race by 20-lengths if he gets into the right rhythm. He's 14/1 with several bookies, and most are quarter-odds to 5 places.
O'Faolains Boy - beat Many Clouds over 3-miles as a novice chaser when in-receipt of 4lb, and he's shown this season he still has plenty of ability being a lot better than his OR151 rating. He couldn't keep up the pace in the Gold Cup when he made a brave effort, but he's on my shortlist being a class horse running off a fair weight, and he should be a lot shorter odds than 33/1. On reflection, he probably does not have a winning chance, unless he gets some luck in running, and won't be one of today's wagers. As it happens, he is a non-runner.
Holywell - went into a lot of notebooks for this race when running a cracker to be 2nd in the handicap chase on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. He also beat a high-class novice field here in 2014 over 3m1f on the Mildmay course, with non-other than Don Cossack, Many Clouds and O'Faolains Boy behind him that day on level weights. A repeat of that form will see him win this race easily and, running off OR153 and carrying just 10st 12lb, he has been given every chance. Remember, he was 4th in the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Odds of 16/1 are still available and most bookies are at quarter-odds to 5 places. It would be no surprise to me to see a gamble on this horse on the run-up to the race.
Boston Bob - is the mount of Ruby Walsh, and he's been thought of as a National horse since winning here in 2014 over 2m4f, but a win in the Punchestown Gold Cup NTO (in April 2014) beating a strong field, meant he was aimed at the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup instead (which he missed). This year, this race has been the target all season, and his win in the Bobbyjo Chase LTO will mean he's in peak form. He's much better than OR151 on his day and I'm surprised he's drifted out to 33/1. Ruby Walsh did have the ride but he's not able to do it as he's injured; so Paul Townend takes the ride and he is a very able deputy. Can trainer Willie Mullins crown an already mighty season by winning the Grand National with this horse?
Just A Par - won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April and comes alive at this time of year with the sun on his back, and he ran his best race since that Sandown win LTO at Exeter last month carrying 11st 11lb. He has only 10st 6lb to carry in this and, at 50/1, Just A Par is a lively outsider, and on the shortlist. Take the odds with Bet Victor who are quarter-odds for 6 places, and I'd be very happy if he comes 6th at these odds with my money on him.
Hadrian's Approach - also won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, but in 2014. Very lightly raced since, his seasonal debut in February could have brought him back to peak fitness for this and Nicky Henderson will leave no stone unturned. He's another lively outsider at 66/1 as he's much better than OR147 on his day. The worry is that he may not have had enough racing and, as such, he's passed over.
Saint Are - looked an unlucky loser last year, and looks an even better horse with his win LTO at Doncaster. Running off OR146, just 3lb higher than last year, he has a tremendous chance of winning. This will be this 3rd Grand National and the 4th time he's attempted the National fences (he ran 3rd in the Becher Chase). The horse just loves this track (many don't) and odds of 16/1 look very reasonable, especially as his trainer Tom George is in top form.
The Grand National has changed recently, not just in trip (shorter) and fences (smaller) but in the quality of horses contesting the race. As such, in recent years 5 of the last 7 winners have carried 11st or more to victory. Horses that carry 11st or more to victory have the ability to either win a Cheltenham Gold Cup (L'Escargot in 1975 with 11st 3lb), or be placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (Mon Mome, Hedgehunter, and Neptune Collonges all carried 11st or more to win a Grand National and were placed in a Gold Cup). There are 3 horses in the races who could have gone close to winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup at their peak, and they are the 3 I am advising to place a wager on.
Advised Grand National selections
Silviniaco Conti @ 14/1
Holywell @ 16/1
Boston Bob @ 33/1
Wagers of £5 eachway on all 3, that's £30 staked.
I was going to advise another wager in the 3m1f handicap chase at 4:20pm, but the overnight rain has put me off as it will likely be more testing ground than I anticipated and that could mean an unpredictable race.
The best of luck to all the runners and riders, and let's hope all the horses come back safe to race another day.
Showing posts with label Aintree. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aintree. Show all posts
Saturday, 9 April 2016
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Grand National 2012
The 469th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.
But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.
For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)
Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.
Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.
But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.
For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)
Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.
Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
A look at the National runners
The 468th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I’m having a pretty rough time of it personally lately, and it’s taking a lot out of me. This is my favourite time of the year as a horseracing fan but, at the moment, I’m finding it difficult to generate enthusiasm. It’s likely that there will be no blog for the next few days as it’s my dear old mum’s funeral on Thursday and I will be travelling up to Liverpool for that tomorrow (Wednesday) and returning home on Friday. I do hope to have a blog on Saturday for the Grand National.
There are just a couple of flat racing meetings today and, as I’ve not looked at the flat yet, I’ll give them a miss. Once we have the Aintree meeting over on Saturday then I will do a recap of my tipping record for the 2011-12 jumps season, and from Monday I will concentrate on the flat.
I was disappointed to see Thursdays blog selection COOTEHILL beaten into 2nd. He hit the final fence hard when holding a slight advantage, but I’m not sure that cost him the race as the eventual winner Wessex King ran-on very well from the last fence. I overlooked Wessex King in this race which was a mistake. He’d won both his starts on good-to-firm going and I reckon the ground was faster than “good” at Ludlow last Thursday.
The Aintree meeting this week will be the final BBC televised Grand National meeting as, from next year, the meeting will be televised by Channel 4. The meeting opens with the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle featuring BIG BUCKS and it is unlikely that anything will trouble the champion staying hurdler. What is interesting is that Crack Away Jack is entered and has moved-on from Paul Nicholls to Tom George and this talented horse looks very well handicapped as a chaser. Later, the Betfred Bowl Chase over 3m1f looks a cracker and could provide a real turn-up of a result as plenty of these horses are entering unknown territory in terms of trip and class. The “Manifesto” novices chase over 2m4f looks tailor-made for CUE CARD, altho’ he may go for the Melling Chase over the same trip on Friday.
Saturday is all about the Grand National, and my early thoughts are to stick with one of my 3 selections in the race last year (when I advised Ballabriggs @ ½pt win, and ¼pt ew on both West End Rocker & The Tother One) and that is WEST END ROCKER. The likely soft going won’t phase him, he can jump the fences and he should stay the trip. The “National” is a race were it pays to be “in-the-van” as not many can get into contention from off the pace in the final circuit. I cannot really have any horses with a weight greater than 11st especially as it is likely that 30 of the 40 runners will be carrying less than 11st. Of those above the 11st thresh-hold, I do like PLANET OF SOUND who stays forever and will also handle the likely soft going. ACCORDING TO PETE definitely needs the going to be soft, but he’ll be up there and (providing he jumps the fences as he’s on the small side) he could sneak a place at 40/1. Another at the huge odds of 125/1 is MIDNIGHT HAZE who (for a 10yo) is lightly raced having had only 10 chase races of which he’s won 4. He likes to race prominently and he jumps well; he also stays 3-mile-plus and on just 10st he could give them all a run for their money. Remember, on Saturday morning it is likely that at least one bookmaker will offer eachway odds for 6-places on the race. So, we can look for long odds on some so-called no-hopers.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I’m having a pretty rough time of it personally lately, and it’s taking a lot out of me. This is my favourite time of the year as a horseracing fan but, at the moment, I’m finding it difficult to generate enthusiasm. It’s likely that there will be no blog for the next few days as it’s my dear old mum’s funeral on Thursday and I will be travelling up to Liverpool for that tomorrow (Wednesday) and returning home on Friday. I do hope to have a blog on Saturday for the Grand National.
There are just a couple of flat racing meetings today and, as I’ve not looked at the flat yet, I’ll give them a miss. Once we have the Aintree meeting over on Saturday then I will do a recap of my tipping record for the 2011-12 jumps season, and from Monday I will concentrate on the flat.
I was disappointed to see Thursdays blog selection COOTEHILL beaten into 2nd. He hit the final fence hard when holding a slight advantage, but I’m not sure that cost him the race as the eventual winner Wessex King ran-on very well from the last fence. I overlooked Wessex King in this race which was a mistake. He’d won both his starts on good-to-firm going and I reckon the ground was faster than “good” at Ludlow last Thursday.
The Aintree meeting this week will be the final BBC televised Grand National meeting as, from next year, the meeting will be televised by Channel 4. The meeting opens with the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle featuring BIG BUCKS and it is unlikely that anything will trouble the champion staying hurdler. What is interesting is that Crack Away Jack is entered and has moved-on from Paul Nicholls to Tom George and this talented horse looks very well handicapped as a chaser. Later, the Betfred Bowl Chase over 3m1f looks a cracker and could provide a real turn-up of a result as plenty of these horses are entering unknown territory in terms of trip and class. The “Manifesto” novices chase over 2m4f looks tailor-made for CUE CARD, altho’ he may go for the Melling Chase over the same trip on Friday.
Saturday is all about the Grand National, and my early thoughts are to stick with one of my 3 selections in the race last year (when I advised Ballabriggs @ ½pt win, and ¼pt ew on both West End Rocker & The Tother One) and that is WEST END ROCKER. The likely soft going won’t phase him, he can jump the fences and he should stay the trip. The “National” is a race were it pays to be “in-the-van” as not many can get into contention from off the pace in the final circuit. I cannot really have any horses with a weight greater than 11st especially as it is likely that 30 of the 40 runners will be carrying less than 11st. Of those above the 11st thresh-hold, I do like PLANET OF SOUND who stays forever and will also handle the likely soft going. ACCORDING TO PETE definitely needs the going to be soft, but he’ll be up there and (providing he jumps the fences as he’s on the small side) he could sneak a place at 40/1. Another at the huge odds of 125/1 is MIDNIGHT HAZE who (for a 10yo) is lightly raced having had only 10 chase races of which he’s won 4. He likes to race prominently and he jumps well; he also stays 3-mile-plus and on just 10st he could give them all a run for their money. Remember, on Saturday morning it is likely that at least one bookmaker will offer eachway odds for 6-places on the race. So, we can look for long odds on some so-called no-hopers.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Paul Nicholls in tip-top form
The 454th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.
We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.
At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.
As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.
Selection:
Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.
We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.
At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.
As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.
Selection:
Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 5 December 2011
INVICTUS to show he's worth £162,000
The 396th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.
Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.
SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.
At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.
At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.
Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.
At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.
The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?
I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.
There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.
Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.
SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.
At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.
At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.
Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.
At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.
The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?
I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.
There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 3 December 2011
Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!
The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)
Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.
Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.
Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.
The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.
Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.
The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.
Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.
I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.
Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)
Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.
Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.
Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.
The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.
Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.
The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.
Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.
I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.
Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Venetia Williams back on form
The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 20 November 2011
One selection, and it's an 8/1 winner!
The 384th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
3 to Follow for the Jumps - from Wayward Lad
The 366th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.
There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!
That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.
GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.
My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-
WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.
No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.
There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!
That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.
GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.
My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-
WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.
No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 24 October 2011
Horseracing needs to get its act together
The 365th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What a mess horseracing is in!
On Saturday morning, for the 1st time in ages, I watched the whole of Morning Line as the latest review by the BHA of the regulations regarding “whip” use were discussed. From that discussion and a “demonstration” of the use of the whip on a member of the public (if a whip is going to be demonstrated on tv, do it properly), it seemed to me that there are huge holes in the position from which the jockeys are taking.
Firstly, this is not solely a jockey problem – it is British Horseracing’s problem and involves ALL who take part or have an interest: owners, trainers, breeders, bookmakers, racecourse operators, valets, tack suppliers, and (of course) the racing public. And it is that racing public that (in my opinion) are the most important as if horseracing loses the confidence of that racing public in the sport, then horseracing in Britain will collapse like a pack of cards. Other countries, especially France and Ireland, will be happy to fill the gap left, and modern technology means that racing abroad can be watched and wagered on without much difficulty.
Horseracing as a whole needs to get it’s act together and the factions involved need to stop taking pot-shots at each other. Horseracing also needs to link-up with other sports and recreations that employ the use of animals. Animal lovers need to understand that groups like Animal Aid that hold extreme views will not be satisfied until every human in Britain is a vegan and no animals interact with humans in any way, be it horses for riding or a pet goldfish in a tank or bacon in a sandwich. There has to be a concerted effort to involve all animal lovers into acting together. There is no point in loving animals if (in the long run) humans have no interaction with them, and the general public need to understand that.
Onto horseracing, and I had a selection yesterday in GULLIBLE GORDON who ran well enough, but wasn’t good enough. It was almost certainly due to not having had a previous run as he was looking tired and his jumping was skewed from about 6 or 7 fences out. He is a gutsy performer tho’ and stayed-on, but had nothing more to give from the 2nd-last fence. The winner was GONE TO LUNCH who was able to recapture some of the level of form from his past (was 2nd in the Scottish National in April 2010 off OR140 - raced yesterday off OR122). If he can hold his form he should win again when reassessed, but that’s a big “if”. In 2nd was INTAC who ran a cracker of a race considering it was the furthest he’d ever run in public and had not shown any form in 4 previous attempts at trips beyond 2m5f, and had only won once from 6 attempts at 2m5f. What this race showed was that in races beyond 2m6f, horses which bowl-along in front galloping at their own pace without need of cajoling are still involved when the racing gets serious in the final half-mile. Other horses, such as Frosted Grape and Drybrook Bedouin were never able to get into the race and never would. Why? As they need constant cajoling to keep-up and, with only 8 uses of a “corrector” allowed, horses like these are destined for an early retirement.
No selections for the blog today as only flat racing available.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
What a mess horseracing is in!
On Saturday morning, for the 1st time in ages, I watched the whole of Morning Line as the latest review by the BHA of the regulations regarding “whip” use were discussed. From that discussion and a “demonstration” of the use of the whip on a member of the public (if a whip is going to be demonstrated on tv, do it properly), it seemed to me that there are huge holes in the position from which the jockeys are taking.
Firstly, this is not solely a jockey problem – it is British Horseracing’s problem and involves ALL who take part or have an interest: owners, trainers, breeders, bookmakers, racecourse operators, valets, tack suppliers, and (of course) the racing public. And it is that racing public that (in my opinion) are the most important as if horseracing loses the confidence of that racing public in the sport, then horseracing in Britain will collapse like a pack of cards. Other countries, especially France and Ireland, will be happy to fill the gap left, and modern technology means that racing abroad can be watched and wagered on without much difficulty.
Horseracing as a whole needs to get it’s act together and the factions involved need to stop taking pot-shots at each other. Horseracing also needs to link-up with other sports and recreations that employ the use of animals. Animal lovers need to understand that groups like Animal Aid that hold extreme views will not be satisfied until every human in Britain is a vegan and no animals interact with humans in any way, be it horses for riding or a pet goldfish in a tank or bacon in a sandwich. There has to be a concerted effort to involve all animal lovers into acting together. There is no point in loving animals if (in the long run) humans have no interaction with them, and the general public need to understand that.
Onto horseracing, and I had a selection yesterday in GULLIBLE GORDON who ran well enough, but wasn’t good enough. It was almost certainly due to not having had a previous run as he was looking tired and his jumping was skewed from about 6 or 7 fences out. He is a gutsy performer tho’ and stayed-on, but had nothing more to give from the 2nd-last fence. The winner was GONE TO LUNCH who was able to recapture some of the level of form from his past (was 2nd in the Scottish National in April 2010 off OR140 - raced yesterday off OR122). If he can hold his form he should win again when reassessed, but that’s a big “if”. In 2nd was INTAC who ran a cracker of a race considering it was the furthest he’d ever run in public and had not shown any form in 4 previous attempts at trips beyond 2m5f, and had only won once from 6 attempts at 2m5f. What this race showed was that in races beyond 2m6f, horses which bowl-along in front galloping at their own pace without need of cajoling are still involved when the racing gets serious in the final half-mile. Other horses, such as Frosted Grape and Drybrook Bedouin were never able to get into the race and never would. Why? As they need constant cajoling to keep-up and, with only 8 uses of a “corrector” allowed, horses like these are destined for an early retirement.
No selections for the blog today as only flat racing available.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 23 October 2011
Gordon! Don't be gullible.
The 364th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday – however, perhaps I should have had a wager given the results. I said I liked TATANIANO at Chepstow, but thought that his odds would be too short to represent value – and he had an SP of 5/2, incredible! Honest, I thought he’d start at 5/4 for this race and altho’ 9/4 was available when I wrote the blog yesterday I didn’t think readers would be able to get more than a “tenner” on him (if that) at those odds. Just goes to show that you have to keep your targets fixed during the day and step-in when the odds suggest that there is value. Remember, you don’t have to strike a bet, discretion lies with you.
The big story of the day was MASTER MINDED running well below form at Aintree. I did write on Friday that Master Minded was a bit of a character sometimes, and he certainly was not in the mood yesterday. Full marks tho’, go to Peter Bowen and connections of PURE FAITH who pushed eventual winner Albertas Run all the way to the final fence where he made a mistake which put paid to his chances – he still took 2nd place and £10,685 in prize-money. He is likely to be seen out at Aintree again today in a novice chase.
At Doncaster, CAMELOT trained in Ireland by AP O’Brien, took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and now heads the2012 Derby betting market at odds of 3/1 (which are bonkers). He showed a tremendous turn-of-foot to win this and is clearly an exceptional horse.
There is a very interesting h’cap chase at Wincanton at 2:50 over 3m3f. Last years winner Gullible Gordon returns and he is sure to be fit for this being sent here by Paul Nicholls. He carried 11st 8lb to win this last year, leading all-the-way. He has top-weight which is just another 4lb and he is the one to beat. Ballycarney does not look like he’ll stay much beyond 3-mile in a strong run race. Ballyvesey was 2nd in this race last year and meets Gullible Gordon on the same terms so its hard to see him reversing the places. Cullahill is another doubtful stayer beyond 3-mile, and whereas Templer will stay the trip, he struggles above OR128. Ethiopia will run his usual good race, but I feel the handicapper has him now, as is Frosted Grape. Of the others, Gone To Lunch needs to show he’s not “gone” at the game; Fortification is the 1st runner for trainer Kieran Burke and if he’s fit he could go very well off OR115 given he won a Class 2 chase off OR123 at Kempton in Dec 2009. As for Intac, this trip is a step into the unknown. Lastly, we have Drybrook Bedouin who is a horse I like as he stays all day long, but he’s up 11lb for a win last April and that’s tough. On reflection GULLIBLE GORDON at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) looks good value to repeat his win in the race of last season. The only doubt I have is the 7lb claimer who rides, David Pritchard, but that’s why GULLIBLE GORDON is 6/1 and not 7/2 fav.
Selection
Wincanton 2:50, GULLIBLE GORDON, 1pt win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday – however, perhaps I should have had a wager given the results. I said I liked TATANIANO at Chepstow, but thought that his odds would be too short to represent value – and he had an SP of 5/2, incredible! Honest, I thought he’d start at 5/4 for this race and altho’ 9/4 was available when I wrote the blog yesterday I didn’t think readers would be able to get more than a “tenner” on him (if that) at those odds. Just goes to show that you have to keep your targets fixed during the day and step-in when the odds suggest that there is value. Remember, you don’t have to strike a bet, discretion lies with you.
The big story of the day was MASTER MINDED running well below form at Aintree. I did write on Friday that Master Minded was a bit of a character sometimes, and he certainly was not in the mood yesterday. Full marks tho’, go to Peter Bowen and connections of PURE FAITH who pushed eventual winner Albertas Run all the way to the final fence where he made a mistake which put paid to his chances – he still took 2nd place and £10,685 in prize-money. He is likely to be seen out at Aintree again today in a novice chase.
At Doncaster, CAMELOT trained in Ireland by AP O’Brien, took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and now heads the2012 Derby betting market at odds of 3/1 (which are bonkers). He showed a tremendous turn-of-foot to win this and is clearly an exceptional horse.
There is a very interesting h’cap chase at Wincanton at 2:50 over 3m3f. Last years winner Gullible Gordon returns and he is sure to be fit for this being sent here by Paul Nicholls. He carried 11st 8lb to win this last year, leading all-the-way. He has top-weight which is just another 4lb and he is the one to beat. Ballycarney does not look like he’ll stay much beyond 3-mile in a strong run race. Ballyvesey was 2nd in this race last year and meets Gullible Gordon on the same terms so its hard to see him reversing the places. Cullahill is another doubtful stayer beyond 3-mile, and whereas Templer will stay the trip, he struggles above OR128. Ethiopia will run his usual good race, but I feel the handicapper has him now, as is Frosted Grape. Of the others, Gone To Lunch needs to show he’s not “gone” at the game; Fortification is the 1st runner for trainer Kieran Burke and if he’s fit he could go very well off OR115 given he won a Class 2 chase off OR123 at Kempton in Dec 2009. As for Intac, this trip is a step into the unknown. Lastly, we have Drybrook Bedouin who is a horse I like as he stays all day long, but he’s up 11lb for a win last April and that’s tough. On reflection GULLIBLE GORDON at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) looks good value to repeat his win in the race of last season. The only doubt I have is the 7lb claimer who rides, David Pritchard, but that’s why GULLIBLE GORDON is 6/1 and not 7/2 fav.
Selection
Wincanton 2:50, GULLIBLE GORDON, 1pt win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 22 October 2011
Master Minded to show who is boss
The 363rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday.
Today, we have 3 jumps meetings at Aintree, Chepstow and Stratford, and two flat meetings at Doncaster and Newbury. All-in-all, the day is set for a tremendous spectacle of horseracing.
Unfortunately, at Aintree (due, in no fault to the course) in what is the first major meeting of this jumps season, only 3 horse’s line-up for the feature race of the afternoon, the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. Now, I know MASTER MINDED is a class act but he is not unbeatable; and Albertas Run may be the one to beat in the “Ryanair“ come the Festival in March, but he is not normally at his best this early in the season. Both of these horses have the Festival next March as their prime targets – and so, this race at this time of year is when they should be best taken on. It’s obvious, isn’t it?
Fair play to Peter Bowen entering the outclassed novice Pure Faith to take the 3rd place money. However, I expect the Aintree management are wondering why the likes of Somersby, Mad Max, I’m So Lucky, Captain Cee Bee, Kalahari King, Tartak and others, are not here. None of them are ever going to be likely to win at the Festival in March, but they could claim a top race here when the best are at their weakest and, what’s more, race conditions are in their favour. It is very disappointing.
I cannot find a wager at Aintree today. I can see a few speculative “punts”, but nothing that I want to put my money on.
At Chepstow, I like Tataniano, but odds will be short.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday.
Today, we have 3 jumps meetings at Aintree, Chepstow and Stratford, and two flat meetings at Doncaster and Newbury. All-in-all, the day is set for a tremendous spectacle of horseracing.
Unfortunately, at Aintree (due, in no fault to the course) in what is the first major meeting of this jumps season, only 3 horse’s line-up for the feature race of the afternoon, the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. Now, I know MASTER MINDED is a class act but he is not unbeatable; and Albertas Run may be the one to beat in the “Ryanair“ come the Festival in March, but he is not normally at his best this early in the season. Both of these horses have the Festival next March as their prime targets – and so, this race at this time of year is when they should be best taken on. It’s obvious, isn’t it?
Fair play to Peter Bowen entering the outclassed novice Pure Faith to take the 3rd place money. However, I expect the Aintree management are wondering why the likes of Somersby, Mad Max, I’m So Lucky, Captain Cee Bee, Kalahari King, Tartak and others, are not here. None of them are ever going to be likely to win at the Festival in March, but they could claim a top race here when the best are at their weakest and, what’s more, race conditions are in their favour. It is very disappointing.
I cannot find a wager at Aintree today. I can see a few speculative “punts”, but nothing that I want to put my money on.
At Chepstow, I like Tataniano, but odds will be short.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 21 October 2011
Saturday lookahead
The 362nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Two selections for the blog yesterday with RAPID INCREASE taking 3rd place and the each-way spoils. Advised at 10/1 (SP 8/1), that’s 1.50pts profit (at quarter-odds).
The winner Horsham Lad had the benefit of a very lenient mark, and the front-3 pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a race run at a testing gallop. All-in-all, a good effort from the selection and he goes back into my private alert list. If he reappears over an extra couple of furlongs he will be very interesting.
Unfortunately, the other selection, GOING WRONG, was 4th and missed out on a place only for lack of fitness and so 2pts lost there, meaning an overall ½pt loss on the day. On reflection, this looks a strong race (despite my comments in the blog yesterday) and GOING WRONG is one I’ll keep an eye out for when he runs next, especially if he steps up in trip to 2m4f+, and it could pay to keep an eye out all the 1st-4 home in this race.
Just a solitary jump meeting at Fakenham today and tho’ there are a couple of decent handicaps being run there, the fields are small and the races could get tactical.
Looking ahead to Saturday, and the meeting at Aintree is the first major meeting of the jumps season with the highlight being the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. MASTER MINDED stands out in this race and I would be very surprised if anything in the race can challenge him. That said, he is his own worst enemy and can idle when in front which, given the new “whip” rules could make things interesting after the final fence.
The opening hurdle over 2m1f is one that should be watched as recent winners have done extremely well in follow-up races. From the early entries, one I like the look of is HIGHWAY CODE who is sent by Richard Lee, and he won the race in 2006.
The Veteran’s handicap over 3m1f could be interesting. I have been following DOUBLE DIZZY for a couple of seasons as when he’s in the mood he can run a big race, and this looks his sort of opportunity.
There are a couple of my old fav’s entered later in the afternoon; in the 4:05 SOUND STAGE makes his seasonal debut. He was given only 3-runs last season, but each was a solid effort, and I’m sure Caroline Keevil will have this horse fit to do the business. Then, we have another from last season’s Horses to Follow list – PICKAMUS.
The meeting at Chepstow opens with a 3-mile maiden hurdle that has been won by some decent horses in recent years, so another race to have your notebook handy. Later on, the Persian War Novices Hurdle over 2m4f looks a cracker and it is a race Paul Nichols has won 3 times in the past 4 years. However, I will probably be looking for the winner of the 4:50, a 2m½f class 2 h’cap chase.
The other jumps meeting on Saturday is at Stratford and it has a couple of interesting handicaps.
I will be watching the Doncaster meeting, but I doubt I will be having a wager there. I am more interested in the flat meeting at Newbury which has, what looks to be, a cracking card.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Two selections for the blog yesterday with RAPID INCREASE taking 3rd place and the each-way spoils. Advised at 10/1 (SP 8/1), that’s 1.50pts profit (at quarter-odds).
The winner Horsham Lad had the benefit of a very lenient mark, and the front-3 pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a race run at a testing gallop. All-in-all, a good effort from the selection and he goes back into my private alert list. If he reappears over an extra couple of furlongs he will be very interesting.
Unfortunately, the other selection, GOING WRONG, was 4th and missed out on a place only for lack of fitness and so 2pts lost there, meaning an overall ½pt loss on the day. On reflection, this looks a strong race (despite my comments in the blog yesterday) and GOING WRONG is one I’ll keep an eye out for when he runs next, especially if he steps up in trip to 2m4f+, and it could pay to keep an eye out all the 1st-4 home in this race.
Just a solitary jump meeting at Fakenham today and tho’ there are a couple of decent handicaps being run there, the fields are small and the races could get tactical.
Looking ahead to Saturday, and the meeting at Aintree is the first major meeting of the jumps season with the highlight being the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. MASTER MINDED stands out in this race and I would be very surprised if anything in the race can challenge him. That said, he is his own worst enemy and can idle when in front which, given the new “whip” rules could make things interesting after the final fence.
The opening hurdle over 2m1f is one that should be watched as recent winners have done extremely well in follow-up races. From the early entries, one I like the look of is HIGHWAY CODE who is sent by Richard Lee, and he won the race in 2006.
The Veteran’s handicap over 3m1f could be interesting. I have been following DOUBLE DIZZY for a couple of seasons as when he’s in the mood he can run a big race, and this looks his sort of opportunity.
There are a couple of my old fav’s entered later in the afternoon; in the 4:05 SOUND STAGE makes his seasonal debut. He was given only 3-runs last season, but each was a solid effort, and I’m sure Caroline Keevil will have this horse fit to do the business. Then, we have another from last season’s Horses to Follow list – PICKAMUS.
The meeting at Chepstow opens with a 3-mile maiden hurdle that has been won by some decent horses in recent years, so another race to have your notebook handy. Later on, the Persian War Novices Hurdle over 2m4f looks a cracker and it is a race Paul Nichols has won 3 times in the past 4 years. However, I will probably be looking for the winner of the 4:50, a 2m½f class 2 h’cap chase.
The other jumps meeting on Saturday is at Stratford and it has a couple of interesting handicaps.
I will be watching the Doncaster meeting, but I doubt I will be having a wager there. I am more interested in the flat meeting at Newbury which has, what looks to be, a cracking card.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Monday, 17 October 2011
Please register your interest - thanks!
The 358th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!
For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.
Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).
I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.
Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.
The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!
For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.
Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).
I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.
Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.
The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 21 September 2011
A time to bet like men
The 340th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
From time-to-time it pays to look back at recent events and take stock to see where you did things right and where it went wrong. I was particularly enamoured by the recent series of articles on successful “modern” punters – however, only Patrick Veitch was the only one to tick the box of being truly “modern-day”.
I’ve been punting on horses since I was 7-years-old, my first wager being a “bob” each-way on Ribocco ridden by L. Piggott in the 1967 Derby won by Royal Palace (Ribocco was 2nd so I turned a tiny profit – and the “seed” had been sown!). In the intervening years, I have always maintained and interest in horseracing, both flat and jumps. When I started working at the age of 20 in 1980, I immediately found a good use for the incoming wages tho’ success was sporadic as I insisted on having multiple bets. My favourite was a “Yankee” – and I had all 4 selections win for me once which brought-in the equivalent of a full weeks wages. However, experience has taught me that the only way to truly win is to have a significant amount on a horse that is under-valued by the markets and to get your money (proper money) down.
I think I read in a book by Clement Freud that his maxim was “don’t have a bet unless losing would hurt (financially)”. In other words, don’t have a token £10 each-way. If you are going to have a “bet”, do it properly and have a day’s wages (or the equivalent) on it. That is, if you are on £40,000 a year and take home (after tax and NIC) £550 a week (or £2,200 a month), then your minimum bet should be £110 – which is a day’s wages. If you’re not confident enough to do that – and confidence is a huge factor in playing the horses – then don’t place the bet.
In doing this you will learn several important lessons very quickly. (1) Discipline – unless you are made of money and you have so much it means nothing to you then, if you stick to the “day’s wages” rule, you won’t squander your valuable hard-earned on trivial wagers. You will develop the discipline to wait until an opportunity arrives. (2) Race-reading – if you are not betting on multiple races then you will (hopefully) watch them instead without a financial interest. As such, you will learn to race-read. It is only natural to focus your attention on the horse carrying your wager, and so miss other potential developments in the same race. Watch as much racing as you can and learn from it. (3) Character – not everyone is born to be a gambler, and gambling’s gut-instinct is not something that can be learned. If you cannot bring yourself to “put the money down” then really and truly, playing the horses is not for you. We are all capable of making valued judgements and we do it regularly when buying a car or house, or in choosing partner or a new job offer over another. It is another part of character that goes beyond these decisions as with gambling it’s all or nothing. You want a losing wager to hurt, but not so much you cannot recover from it and that it makes you feel bitter.
What took me to writing this was a race yesterday at Newton Abbot. Regular readers of the blog will know that last jumps season I posted a “Horses-to-Follow” list, nominating horses with potential to improve. By the looks of it, I spotted the potential a year too soon in some of them as Absolute Shambles has recently completed a hat-trick of wins during the summer months, and yesterday another from the list won – QHILIMAR. When looking at the following days races on Monday evening, QHILIMAR jumped-out at me as he had the right trip looked well-in off OR127. At the time, he had been price-up by one bookmaker at 10/1, but was between 8/1 – 9/1 with a few others. Given he’s won when fresh several times I considered him a 4/1 chance in the odds-line I prepared. I thought I’d leave it overnight before having a wager and see what the morning brought – wrong move! By the time I checked on oddschecker at 9:30am, the “value” had gone and the best I could find was 11/2. Although I felt confident in the horse’s ability, my confidence did not match my character to have a wager at my minimum stakes. Your see, even today, over 40 years since my first wager, I still sometimes lack the confidence to bet like a man.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
From time-to-time it pays to look back at recent events and take stock to see where you did things right and where it went wrong. I was particularly enamoured by the recent series of articles on successful “modern” punters – however, only Patrick Veitch was the only one to tick the box of being truly “modern-day”.
I’ve been punting on horses since I was 7-years-old, my first wager being a “bob” each-way on Ribocco ridden by L. Piggott in the 1967 Derby won by Royal Palace (Ribocco was 2nd so I turned a tiny profit – and the “seed” had been sown!). In the intervening years, I have always maintained and interest in horseracing, both flat and jumps. When I started working at the age of 20 in 1980, I immediately found a good use for the incoming wages tho’ success was sporadic as I insisted on having multiple bets. My favourite was a “Yankee” – and I had all 4 selections win for me once which brought-in the equivalent of a full weeks wages. However, experience has taught me that the only way to truly win is to have a significant amount on a horse that is under-valued by the markets and to get your money (proper money) down.
I think I read in a book by Clement Freud that his maxim was “don’t have a bet unless losing would hurt (financially)”. In other words, don’t have a token £10 each-way. If you are going to have a “bet”, do it properly and have a day’s wages (or the equivalent) on it. That is, if you are on £40,000 a year and take home (after tax and NIC) £550 a week (or £2,200 a month), then your minimum bet should be £110 – which is a day’s wages. If you’re not confident enough to do that – and confidence is a huge factor in playing the horses – then don’t place the bet.
In doing this you will learn several important lessons very quickly. (1) Discipline – unless you are made of money and you have so much it means nothing to you then, if you stick to the “day’s wages” rule, you won’t squander your valuable hard-earned on trivial wagers. You will develop the discipline to wait until an opportunity arrives. (2) Race-reading – if you are not betting on multiple races then you will (hopefully) watch them instead without a financial interest. As such, you will learn to race-read. It is only natural to focus your attention on the horse carrying your wager, and so miss other potential developments in the same race. Watch as much racing as you can and learn from it. (3) Character – not everyone is born to be a gambler, and gambling’s gut-instinct is not something that can be learned. If you cannot bring yourself to “put the money down” then really and truly, playing the horses is not for you. We are all capable of making valued judgements and we do it regularly when buying a car or house, or in choosing partner or a new job offer over another. It is another part of character that goes beyond these decisions as with gambling it’s all or nothing. You want a losing wager to hurt, but not so much you cannot recover from it and that it makes you feel bitter.
What took me to writing this was a race yesterday at Newton Abbot. Regular readers of the blog will know that last jumps season I posted a “Horses-to-Follow” list, nominating horses with potential to improve. By the looks of it, I spotted the potential a year too soon in some of them as Absolute Shambles has recently completed a hat-trick of wins during the summer months, and yesterday another from the list won – QHILIMAR. When looking at the following days races on Monday evening, QHILIMAR jumped-out at me as he had the right trip looked well-in off OR127. At the time, he had been price-up by one bookmaker at 10/1, but was between 8/1 – 9/1 with a few others. Given he’s won when fresh several times I considered him a 4/1 chance in the odds-line I prepared. I thought I’d leave it overnight before having a wager and see what the morning brought – wrong move! By the time I checked on oddschecker at 9:30am, the “value” had gone and the best I could find was 11/2. Although I felt confident in the horse’s ability, my confidence did not match my character to have a wager at my minimum stakes. Your see, even today, over 40 years since my first wager, I still sometimes lack the confidence to bet like a man.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 19 September 2011
Ginger McCain - National Legend
The 339th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
When the Grand National was floundering due to bad (not poor, plain bad) management and chronic under-investment in the early 1970’s, staring oblivion in the face; it required a unique combination of characters to save it. From stables hidden behind a garage in nearby Southport emerged a saviour and his protégé - Ginger McCain and Red Rum, a horse trained on the beach at low-tide, and perhaps the greatest jockey ever to ride the National course, Brian Fletcher.
I doubt many people under the age of 50 (60 even) today understand just how dire the situation was at Aintree, home of the greatest horserace on the planet: the Grand National. The last “development” at the track had occurred before the First World War and, like the ill-fated Titanic, Aintree was now (in 1973) captained by the inadequate Bill Davies of the Walton Group. He had purchased the course from the Topham family who had owned it for 125 years and it was no secret that his ultimate aim was to build a housing estate on the course. Aintree was on-course for its own iceberg. The attendance for Grand National day in 1973 was estimated at 5,000 (compare that with the estimated 100,000-plus at Aintree to watch in 2011).
And so the stage was set for perhaps the most dramatic Grand National of all time. Forget the pile-up at the 23rd fence in 1967. The Devon Loch incident of 1956 would be surpassed. The Grand National of 1973 featured the brilliance of the 2-mile globe-trotting New Zealand-bred chaser ‘Crisp’ with that of the rags-to-riches Red Rum.
Crisp knew only one way to run a race: boldly from the front at full pace, and so he did quickly establishing a 20+ length lead. Red Rum was a battler who was there for the long-haul, and he ran much of the 1st-circuit with the leaders of the following “peloton”. However, jumping the “Chair” before heading out for the 2nd circuit, jockey Brian Fletcher knew he had to go for it to have any chance of catching Crisp who was now probably 30-lengths ahead, full of running and jumping the fences like a stag. Watch a replay of the race and you will soon realise that Red Rum was galloping at full speed for the whole of the 2nd circuit, jumping fences with unnerving courage, and still not reducing the advantage held by Crisp.
It could not go on. After 4-miles the pace and the trip covered started to take its toll on the leader. Jumping the final fence, Crisp began to waver. To watch now is both heart-breaking and exhilarating. Crisp; a spent force struggling to hold a straight line. Red Rum; neck outstretched, galloping relentlessly on.
To the victor, the spoils! Red Rum, ridden by Brain Fletcher, trained by Ginger McCain were the names that went into the record books.
Despite being an outspoken chauvinist who was totally politically incorrect, McCain had the ability to keep Red Rum fit and well for another 4 attempts at the National. Because of his personality, McCain was almost certainly an embarrassment to “the establishment”. However, he managed to keep the National in the news, always prepared to comment on whatever developments took place and, for that; horseracing owes him a debt of gratitude.
When the Grand National was floundering due to bad (not poor, plain bad) management and chronic under-investment in the early 1970’s, staring oblivion in the face; it required a unique combination of characters to save it. From stables hidden behind a garage in nearby Southport emerged a saviour and his protégé - Ginger McCain and Red Rum, a horse trained on the beach at low-tide, and perhaps the greatest jockey ever to ride the National course, Brian Fletcher.
I doubt many people under the age of 50 (60 even) today understand just how dire the situation was at Aintree, home of the greatest horserace on the planet: the Grand National. The last “development” at the track had occurred before the First World War and, like the ill-fated Titanic, Aintree was now (in 1973) captained by the inadequate Bill Davies of the Walton Group. He had purchased the course from the Topham family who had owned it for 125 years and it was no secret that his ultimate aim was to build a housing estate on the course. Aintree was on-course for its own iceberg. The attendance for Grand National day in 1973 was estimated at 5,000 (compare that with the estimated 100,000-plus at Aintree to watch in 2011).
And so the stage was set for perhaps the most dramatic Grand National of all time. Forget the pile-up at the 23rd fence in 1967. The Devon Loch incident of 1956 would be surpassed. The Grand National of 1973 featured the brilliance of the 2-mile globe-trotting New Zealand-bred chaser ‘Crisp’ with that of the rags-to-riches Red Rum.
Crisp knew only one way to run a race: boldly from the front at full pace, and so he did quickly establishing a 20+ length lead. Red Rum was a battler who was there for the long-haul, and he ran much of the 1st-circuit with the leaders of the following “peloton”. However, jumping the “Chair” before heading out for the 2nd circuit, jockey Brian Fletcher knew he had to go for it to have any chance of catching Crisp who was now probably 30-lengths ahead, full of running and jumping the fences like a stag. Watch a replay of the race and you will soon realise that Red Rum was galloping at full speed for the whole of the 2nd circuit, jumping fences with unnerving courage, and still not reducing the advantage held by Crisp.
It could not go on. After 4-miles the pace and the trip covered started to take its toll on the leader. Jumping the final fence, Crisp began to waver. To watch now is both heart-breaking and exhilarating. Crisp; a spent force struggling to hold a straight line. Red Rum; neck outstretched, galloping relentlessly on.
To the victor, the spoils! Red Rum, ridden by Brain Fletcher, trained by Ginger McCain were the names that went into the record books.
Despite being an outspoken chauvinist who was totally politically incorrect, McCain had the ability to keep Red Rum fit and well for another 4 attempts at the National. Because of his personality, McCain was almost certainly an embarrassment to “the establishment”. However, he managed to keep the National in the news, always prepared to comment on whatever developments took place and, for that; horseracing owes him a debt of gratitude.
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Is horse welfare really on the agenda for "jump" racing?
This is the 325th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I’ve been occupied these past couple of weeks entertaining my 8yo son (whom I hardly see as he lives with his mum in far-west Cornwall, over 300 miles from me). Hence, my blog has been a bit quiet. Please accept my apologies.
There have been some developments in horseracing recently – developments that cannot be overlooked.
Last week we had the announcement of a 4-year ban on established “front-rank” jumps trainer Howard Johnson. He was found guilty of actions that were detrimental to a racehorse’s welfare, whilst in his care. Personally, I found the 4-year ban out of kilter with other recent disciplinary measures – such as the much shorter ban for doping handed-out last year to Nicky Henderson. I understand that there are measures of responsibility involved but, in my opinion, “bans” must be realistic and consistent if “horseracing” is to provide an acceptable face to the general public as well as its own community. A 4-year ban in any sport is pretty conclusive – and so it proved to Howard Johnson, as he immediately announced his retirement. I was saddened by this as it must be remembered that Johnson (thru’ his stable) brought “champion” hurdler Inglis Drever back from a career-threatening injury to win not one, but two further World Hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival. Yes, he made an error of judgment but, given his career history, are horses in his care fundamentally at risk? And is that risk enough to warrant his removal from the sport entirely? We’ve all seen the “riots” on tv last week, but are all those apprehended to be tarred with the same brush irrespective of the level of their individual crime? If you say yes to that, then we as a nation should apply the same level of blame in all areas – in other words, if you are guilty then there are no half-measures of punishment. However, I think that our strength as a nation is that we are compassionate, and the level of punishment levied at Howard Johnson was – in my opinion - over-the-top.
This week (yesterday, in fact) we’ve had the announcement of further modifications to the Aintree Grand National course, made in the effort to make the course “safer”. Some fences have been reduced in height and, at some fences – including Bechers Brook – the level of the “landing” side of the fence has been raised. After this year’s race was marred by the deaths of two horses, there was much media attention on whether it was worth it. At the time, and it has been repeated in media reports today, it was reported that more than half the number of fallers in the race occurred in the 1st-6 fences, ie up to and including Bechers Brook on the 1st circuit of the National. Jockeys and Trainers, as well as those experienced in “Jump” racing all sang from the same hymn sheet in blaming the speed the horses ran at over those 1st-6 fences as being the primary contributory factor of the fallers. With fallers comes the potential of injury and, in the case of broken bones, the death of the horse.
In my opinion, reducing the height of some fences and making then more inviting to jump by increasing the height of the “kick-board” in front of the fence will just mean the horses will run faster over the 1st-6 fences. As such, raising the level of the landing side will have no effect in reducing the number of fallers that fall due to the speed they are travelling at and, as the horses will be travelling quicker, the potential for injury will be increased.
There is always a risk involved with racing. It seems some people have already forgotten the scenes at Ascot a few weeks ago when Rewilding broke a leg when running at full speed in front of the stands. That was a “Flat” race by-the-way, and one of the most prestigious flat races of the season in Europe.
The hidden agenda for the Grand National is its future demise and removal from the racing calendar. In chipping away at its reason for being, support for the race within the industry will wither as it ceases to be the historic spectacular of past years. There is already apathy towards the event from some bookmakers, and the BBC only televise it because they feel obliged to. If racing wants to preserve the race and guarantee its future then it needs to think outside the box.
The pace of the race over the initial mile must be reduced. That could be done by:-
(a) fixing it’s date in the calendar. If it is always run on the last Saturday in March, that should provide softer (and slower) going. [The Gold Cup at Cheltenham could be run 15 days earlier – again, fixed in the calendar.] Another possibility is:-
(b) to move the starting position to a point alongside the Melling Road on the ‘back-straight’ of the Mildmay course. That way, the distance of race could be maintained but, rather than a sprint in a straight-line to the 1st-fence, the runners would have to negotiate a sharp left-turn after a furlong which should slow them enough to approach the 1st-fence at a more moderate gallop.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I’ve been occupied these past couple of weeks entertaining my 8yo son (whom I hardly see as he lives with his mum in far-west Cornwall, over 300 miles from me). Hence, my blog has been a bit quiet. Please accept my apologies.
There have been some developments in horseracing recently – developments that cannot be overlooked.
Last week we had the announcement of a 4-year ban on established “front-rank” jumps trainer Howard Johnson. He was found guilty of actions that were detrimental to a racehorse’s welfare, whilst in his care. Personally, I found the 4-year ban out of kilter with other recent disciplinary measures – such as the much shorter ban for doping handed-out last year to Nicky Henderson. I understand that there are measures of responsibility involved but, in my opinion, “bans” must be realistic and consistent if “horseracing” is to provide an acceptable face to the general public as well as its own community. A 4-year ban in any sport is pretty conclusive – and so it proved to Howard Johnson, as he immediately announced his retirement. I was saddened by this as it must be remembered that Johnson (thru’ his stable) brought “champion” hurdler Inglis Drever back from a career-threatening injury to win not one, but two further World Hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival. Yes, he made an error of judgment but, given his career history, are horses in his care fundamentally at risk? And is that risk enough to warrant his removal from the sport entirely? We’ve all seen the “riots” on tv last week, but are all those apprehended to be tarred with the same brush irrespective of the level of their individual crime? If you say yes to that, then we as a nation should apply the same level of blame in all areas – in other words, if you are guilty then there are no half-measures of punishment. However, I think that our strength as a nation is that we are compassionate, and the level of punishment levied at Howard Johnson was – in my opinion - over-the-top.
This week (yesterday, in fact) we’ve had the announcement of further modifications to the Aintree Grand National course, made in the effort to make the course “safer”. Some fences have been reduced in height and, at some fences – including Bechers Brook – the level of the “landing” side of the fence has been raised. After this year’s race was marred by the deaths of two horses, there was much media attention on whether it was worth it. At the time, and it has been repeated in media reports today, it was reported that more than half the number of fallers in the race occurred in the 1st-6 fences, ie up to and including Bechers Brook on the 1st circuit of the National. Jockeys and Trainers, as well as those experienced in “Jump” racing all sang from the same hymn sheet in blaming the speed the horses ran at over those 1st-6 fences as being the primary contributory factor of the fallers. With fallers comes the potential of injury and, in the case of broken bones, the death of the horse.
In my opinion, reducing the height of some fences and making then more inviting to jump by increasing the height of the “kick-board” in front of the fence will just mean the horses will run faster over the 1st-6 fences. As such, raising the level of the landing side will have no effect in reducing the number of fallers that fall due to the speed they are travelling at and, as the horses will be travelling quicker, the potential for injury will be increased.
There is always a risk involved with racing. It seems some people have already forgotten the scenes at Ascot a few weeks ago when Rewilding broke a leg when running at full speed in front of the stands. That was a “Flat” race by-the-way, and one of the most prestigious flat races of the season in Europe.
The hidden agenda for the Grand National is its future demise and removal from the racing calendar. In chipping away at its reason for being, support for the race within the industry will wither as it ceases to be the historic spectacular of past years. There is already apathy towards the event from some bookmakers, and the BBC only televise it because they feel obliged to. If racing wants to preserve the race and guarantee its future then it needs to think outside the box.
The pace of the race over the initial mile must be reduced. That could be done by:-
(a) fixing it’s date in the calendar. If it is always run on the last Saturday in March, that should provide softer (and slower) going. [The Gold Cup at Cheltenham could be run 15 days earlier – again, fixed in the calendar.] Another possibility is:-
(b) to move the starting position to a point alongside the Melling Road on the ‘back-straight’ of the Mildmay course. That way, the distance of race could be maintained but, rather than a sprint in a straight-line to the 1st-fence, the runners would have to negotiate a sharp left-turn after a furlong which should slow them enough to approach the 1st-fence at a more moderate gallop.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 4 July 2011
Back from holiday and a new way forward
This is the 305th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Friday, 10 June 2011
Sir Michael Stoute having poor run of form
This is the 296th edition of the daily blog page.
It is not often that I get annoyed with a jockey’s performance in the saddle as (not being a jockey myself) I reckon they have a difficult job, but Jim Crowley on FOUR NATIONS did not do a good job yesterday. Being a tall, long-striding horse FOUR NATIONS is not blessed with instant acceleration and needs to be ‘stoked-up’ for a run; but he was ridden yesterday as if he had speed to burn. Had he been shaken-up passing the 3f-pole rather than 250 yards later, he would not have been caught flat-footed when the winner quickened away at the 2f-pole. By the time FOUR NATIONS got going, it was all over bar the shouting, tho’ he managed to reduced the winning margin to under a length. On the bright side, the handicapper cannot raise FOUR NATIONS by more than a couple of pounds for this and he still looks like he can develop into a 90+ performer and so he stays in the Notebook.
Late last night at Haydock, we saw a stonking performance from GOOD BOY JACKSON. I wrote about him y’day then, just as I posted-up the blog, my confidence wavered and I deleted the planned wager at odds of 11/2 and suggested a “forecast” with the fav, May Be Some Time. Personally, I placed the forecast but also had a ‘saver’ on GOOD BOY JACKSON to win, and I’m glad I did as he romped home. He’s due out again at the weekend and if he runs he’ll be as good a banker as you’re likely to see. Even the professional race-readers get it wrong sometimes, as the “Notebook” comments from the Racing Post for the previous race won by GOOD BOY JACKSON were… “it is hard to believe this will prove strong 3yo handicap form.” Well, that 5-runner race has now produced 4 individual winners who have won 5 races in the past month, and GOOD BOY JACKSON was followed home in 2nd y’day by the only non-winner Number Theory to result in an Exacta payout of £48.40.
The moral is, if you find a strong race then follow the form.
Trainer Roger Varian continues in good form and his LDT yesterday, NAHRAIN won (as expected) at odds of 8/15.
I had a good day yesterday, despite my “nap” not winning, and it’s been a good week for me. What I tend to do on these very busy days of racing is look for horses at false prices and place-lay them. The first of these I came across by chance when I was sat in Ladbrokes waiting for some photos to be printed at Boots. The 2:20 class 6 h’cap at Nottingham over 6f had 14-runners, but the 9/2, 2nd-fav Delaware Dancer had the worst of the draw and had also been off the track 193-days. Throw-in that he starts his races slow and last ran over 7f, he was never a “evens” chance (2.00 on the exchanges) to be placed even if Betfair were still paying 4-places due to non-runners. I took those odds and my money was never at risk. I followed that up with a couple more successful place-lays on Sir Michael Stoute’s 3rd runner of the day Hairstyle (which I broadcast on Twitter) which I laid at 1.51 (SP 7/2) and later, the extremely slow Night Orbit in the 2-mile class 6 handicap at Yarmouth (this horse would be best in a 3-mile race).
Sir Michael Stoute is having a rotten time of late – as I wrote in yesterday’s blog – and I did say his horses, who were all at short odds, should be laid to lose. His 4/11 chance Floral Beauty was beaten in the opener at Newbury, and it was downhill from there. I was also right about the fav’s at Newbury yesterday when I said they should be opposed (laid on the exchanges). From the 8 races, only Rumh at 5/2 was a winning fav, with losing fav’s being at odds of 4/11, 5/4, 9/4, evens, 7/2, 11/4 and 5/2.
Plenty of racing again today with 2 meetings this afternoon at Sandown and York, and Goodwood and Chepstow this evening. There is nothing running from either my blog Notebook or my personal alert list today.
At Sandown, Sir Michael Stoute has only one runner MARKAZZI in the 4:35. Not sure what Stoute is up to with this one as it was a promising 2yo and it was his entry in the Craven as a 3yo. But, it wasn't supported that day and has run like a non-stayer ever since. The dam-line is filled with horses that have not won beyond 7-furlongs, and I reckon Stoute is barking up the wrong tree with it in this race as 10 of his 14 rivals have winning form at this 10 furlong trip. If there is a significant market move for him (and he starts under 9/2) then I'll think twice, but if he starts at 7/1 or about 2.45 - 2.55 in the place-only market, then I'll be laying him to run unplaced.
At York in the 2:40, I cannot get my head around why MOHEEB is the 5/1 fav. The horse has not won at York from 4 visits there, and has only won once in 17 attempts at trips beyond 1m1f & 170 yards. Add that he’s never won from 13 races on good-to-firm going (needs good or softer), and this has to be a weak favourite. Sure, he ran well at York when 3rd in Aug-2009 off OR91 (runs off OR78 today) but he was in the form of his life that summer. He looks like another that I will be place-laying.
An old friend that catches my eye is Peter Makin’s runner HAND PAINTED in the 7:30 at Chepstow. He was hampered at the start LTO, and on both his latest runs he looks like he needs a return to 7f (he won over the trip in Aug-09). He loves to hear his hooves rattle and GF going is what he needs. He has a fair bit of speed at this level as his close 2nd to Humidor last Sept proves, as he’d meet him on 19lb better terms now for a ½ length defeat. The more I look at HAND PAINTED, the more I think he should be a lot shorter in market than the 10/1 he is now. He is 6lb better-off with Emiratesdotcom on their last meeting and form of that run is good (Collect Art was in 2nd). He is a “grinder” and with Makin out of form and his rider Travis Block getting very few rides, I will probably just go place-only tonight.
No selections
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
It is not often that I get annoyed with a jockey’s performance in the saddle as (not being a jockey myself) I reckon they have a difficult job, but Jim Crowley on FOUR NATIONS did not do a good job yesterday. Being a tall, long-striding horse FOUR NATIONS is not blessed with instant acceleration and needs to be ‘stoked-up’ for a run; but he was ridden yesterday as if he had speed to burn. Had he been shaken-up passing the 3f-pole rather than 250 yards later, he would not have been caught flat-footed when the winner quickened away at the 2f-pole. By the time FOUR NATIONS got going, it was all over bar the shouting, tho’ he managed to reduced the winning margin to under a length. On the bright side, the handicapper cannot raise FOUR NATIONS by more than a couple of pounds for this and he still looks like he can develop into a 90+ performer and so he stays in the Notebook.
Late last night at Haydock, we saw a stonking performance from GOOD BOY JACKSON. I wrote about him y’day then, just as I posted-up the blog, my confidence wavered and I deleted the planned wager at odds of 11/2 and suggested a “forecast” with the fav, May Be Some Time. Personally, I placed the forecast but also had a ‘saver’ on GOOD BOY JACKSON to win, and I’m glad I did as he romped home. He’s due out again at the weekend and if he runs he’ll be as good a banker as you’re likely to see. Even the professional race-readers get it wrong sometimes, as the “Notebook” comments from the Racing Post for the previous race won by GOOD BOY JACKSON were… “it is hard to believe this will prove strong 3yo handicap form.” Well, that 5-runner race has now produced 4 individual winners who have won 5 races in the past month, and GOOD BOY JACKSON was followed home in 2nd y’day by the only non-winner Number Theory to result in an Exacta payout of £48.40.
The moral is, if you find a strong race then follow the form.
Trainer Roger Varian continues in good form and his LDT yesterday, NAHRAIN won (as expected) at odds of 8/15.
I had a good day yesterday, despite my “nap” not winning, and it’s been a good week for me. What I tend to do on these very busy days of racing is look for horses at false prices and place-lay them. The first of these I came across by chance when I was sat in Ladbrokes waiting for some photos to be printed at Boots. The 2:20 class 6 h’cap at Nottingham over 6f had 14-runners, but the 9/2, 2nd-fav Delaware Dancer had the worst of the draw and had also been off the track 193-days. Throw-in that he starts his races slow and last ran over 7f, he was never a “evens” chance (2.00 on the exchanges) to be placed even if Betfair were still paying 4-places due to non-runners. I took those odds and my money was never at risk. I followed that up with a couple more successful place-lays on Sir Michael Stoute’s 3rd runner of the day Hairstyle (which I broadcast on Twitter) which I laid at 1.51 (SP 7/2) and later, the extremely slow Night Orbit in the 2-mile class 6 handicap at Yarmouth (this horse would be best in a 3-mile race).
Sir Michael Stoute is having a rotten time of late – as I wrote in yesterday’s blog – and I did say his horses, who were all at short odds, should be laid to lose. His 4/11 chance Floral Beauty was beaten in the opener at Newbury, and it was downhill from there. I was also right about the fav’s at Newbury yesterday when I said they should be opposed (laid on the exchanges). From the 8 races, only Rumh at 5/2 was a winning fav, with losing fav’s being at odds of 4/11, 5/4, 9/4, evens, 7/2, 11/4 and 5/2.
Plenty of racing again today with 2 meetings this afternoon at Sandown and York, and Goodwood and Chepstow this evening. There is nothing running from either my blog Notebook or my personal alert list today.
At Sandown, Sir Michael Stoute has only one runner MARKAZZI in the 4:35. Not sure what Stoute is up to with this one as it was a promising 2yo and it was his entry in the Craven as a 3yo. But, it wasn't supported that day and has run like a non-stayer ever since. The dam-line is filled with horses that have not won beyond 7-furlongs, and I reckon Stoute is barking up the wrong tree with it in this race as 10 of his 14 rivals have winning form at this 10 furlong trip. If there is a significant market move for him (and he starts under 9/2) then I'll think twice, but if he starts at 7/1 or about 2.45 - 2.55 in the place-only market, then I'll be laying him to run unplaced.
At York in the 2:40, I cannot get my head around why MOHEEB is the 5/1 fav. The horse has not won at York from 4 visits there, and has only won once in 17 attempts at trips beyond 1m1f & 170 yards. Add that he’s never won from 13 races on good-to-firm going (needs good or softer), and this has to be a weak favourite. Sure, he ran well at York when 3rd in Aug-2009 off OR91 (runs off OR78 today) but he was in the form of his life that summer. He looks like another that I will be place-laying.
An old friend that catches my eye is Peter Makin’s runner HAND PAINTED in the 7:30 at Chepstow. He was hampered at the start LTO, and on both his latest runs he looks like he needs a return to 7f (he won over the trip in Aug-09). He loves to hear his hooves rattle and GF going is what he needs. He has a fair bit of speed at this level as his close 2nd to Humidor last Sept proves, as he’d meet him on 19lb better terms now for a ½ length defeat. The more I look at HAND PAINTED, the more I think he should be a lot shorter in market than the 10/1 he is now. He is 6lb better-off with Emiratesdotcom on their last meeting and form of that run is good (Collect Art was in 2nd). He is a “grinder” and with Makin out of form and his rider Travis Block getting very few rides, I will probably just go place-only tonight.
No selections
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 14 May 2011
Look for "value" today
Unable to post a blog yesterday as Blogger was down.
Plenty of racing on a Saturday, with the highlight being the “Lockinge” at Newbury, with other Flat Race meetings at Newmarket, Thirsk and Doncaster.
The Lockinge is the race of the day and CANFORD CLIFFS should take a deal of beating. I followed him after his 3rd in the Two Thousand Guineas, and he did me proud winning twice at 3/1 and 11/4 in the Irish Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes respectively (enter Canford Cliffs into the blog search facility and read what I wrote on 14th May 2010).
At Thirsk, and old friend of mine FAVOURITE GIRL (check her out using the blog search facility) runs in the 4:25 and tho’ she’d prefer the going a bit quicker (3 wins on GF) she can take this race having had the benefit of a seasonal debut.
At Newmarket, in the 3:25 runs a horse that really excited me when he won LTO – PARLOUR GAMES. Well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks), he looks best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. He showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader and won with a tonne in-hand. Only raised 6lb to OR85, the opposition will have a handful stopping him winning this.
At Newbury, the Class 2, 6f h’cap with 19-runners looks a nightmare to find the winner. LTO, ADDICTIVE DREAM was 2nd to Humidor, and that form looks rock solid. Humidor won that race at Goodwood in a time just 0.28 outside the 5-furlong track record, and ADDICTIVE DREAM was raised only 4lb to OR91. Having been beaten under a length, that looks fair as he could be a lot better than OR91 especially over this trip of 6-furlongs.
At Doncaster, in the 6-furlong Class 4 h’cap runs MUSIC FESTIVAL and I made a note of him when he won LTO. He ran a true race, kept on well and won in a fast time. For that, he was raised just 4lb to OR64. Interestingly, his dam won French Guineas in 2003, but after just one race for Mark Johnston under the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, he was sold for just £3,000. The trip and going will suit him, and he’s drawn 17 of 20 which is good. Even tho’ he’s 2lb out of the handicap, he can go close here and odds of 14/1 as I write (with Bet365) look more than fair.
In the final race on the card at Doncaster (the 8:40) runs one that I made a note of after he won LTO – MAVERIK. The worry is that his trainer Michael Dods is in an awful run of poor form and he also does not have a good strikerate at this Doncaster. Throw-in the decent rivals Bosambo and Falmouth Bay, and it does not look enticing.
Do I have a selection today? I am never entirely happy having wagers in races over 5 or 6-furlongs, so I cannot recommend wagers on FAVOURITE GIRL, ADDICTIVE DREAM or MUSIC FESTIVAL even tho’ I consider both FAVOURITE GIRL and ADDICTIVE DREAM hold winning chances, and MUSIC FESTIVAL is sure to be in the mix. There is no value in CANFORD CLIFFS, and PARLOUR GAMES is only 2/1 as I write and that is not value either (I was hoping for 3/1). MAVERIK has a difficult task, so 5/1 isn’t value either (I’d be looking for 7/1).
There are no selections today.
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Plenty of racing on a Saturday, with the highlight being the “Lockinge” at Newbury, with other Flat Race meetings at Newmarket, Thirsk and Doncaster.
The Lockinge is the race of the day and CANFORD CLIFFS should take a deal of beating. I followed him after his 3rd in the Two Thousand Guineas, and he did me proud winning twice at 3/1 and 11/4 in the Irish Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes respectively (enter Canford Cliffs into the blog search facility and read what I wrote on 14th May 2010).
At Thirsk, and old friend of mine FAVOURITE GIRL (check her out using the blog search facility) runs in the 4:25 and tho’ she’d prefer the going a bit quicker (3 wins on GF) she can take this race having had the benefit of a seasonal debut.
At Newmarket, in the 3:25 runs a horse that really excited me when he won LTO – PARLOUR GAMES. Well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks), he looks best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. He showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader and won with a tonne in-hand. Only raised 6lb to OR85, the opposition will have a handful stopping him winning this.
At Newbury, the Class 2, 6f h’cap with 19-runners looks a nightmare to find the winner. LTO, ADDICTIVE DREAM was 2nd to Humidor, and that form looks rock solid. Humidor won that race at Goodwood in a time just 0.28 outside the 5-furlong track record, and ADDICTIVE DREAM was raised only 4lb to OR91. Having been beaten under a length, that looks fair as he could be a lot better than OR91 especially over this trip of 6-furlongs.
At Doncaster, in the 6-furlong Class 4 h’cap runs MUSIC FESTIVAL and I made a note of him when he won LTO. He ran a true race, kept on well and won in a fast time. For that, he was raised just 4lb to OR64. Interestingly, his dam won French Guineas in 2003, but after just one race for Mark Johnston under the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, he was sold for just £3,000. The trip and going will suit him, and he’s drawn 17 of 20 which is good. Even tho’ he’s 2lb out of the handicap, he can go close here and odds of 14/1 as I write (with Bet365) look more than fair.
In the final race on the card at Doncaster (the 8:40) runs one that I made a note of after he won LTO – MAVERIK. The worry is that his trainer Michael Dods is in an awful run of poor form and he also does not have a good strikerate at this Doncaster. Throw-in the decent rivals Bosambo and Falmouth Bay, and it does not look enticing.
Do I have a selection today? I am never entirely happy having wagers in races over 5 or 6-furlongs, so I cannot recommend wagers on FAVOURITE GIRL, ADDICTIVE DREAM or MUSIC FESTIVAL even tho’ I consider both FAVOURITE GIRL and ADDICTIVE DREAM hold winning chances, and MUSIC FESTIVAL is sure to be in the mix. There is no value in CANFORD CLIFFS, and PARLOUR GAMES is only 2/1 as I write and that is not value either (I was hoping for 3/1). MAVERIK has a difficult task, so 5/1 isn’t value either (I’d be looking for 7/1).
There are no selections today.
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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