The 472nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog yesterday as I had a particularly busy day at the office. It's a long day I'm putting in: up at 5:45 and leaving for the train station at 6:20 for the 7:00am train from Haywards Heath into London Bridge; then a half-hour journey via the Jubilee Line and the DLR to arrive at my office in East London at about 8:25am. The train journey at least gives me some time to review the horseracing, but that's about it.
Today, there are meetings at Ayr and Fontwell over the jumps, and at Newbury and Bath on the flat. There is nothing at Newbury that captures my interest as 2yo and 3yo races at this time of year are almost a lottery – the formbook can be almost thrown away. I've never been a fan of Bath (except for focusing on course specialists) and the meeting is an early evening one, so I may take a look at that this afternoon. The Fontwell meeting has an interesting handicap chase at 2:30 with an old friend of mine, Bishophill Jack, running. If "Jack" can re-produce his Boxing Day form when winning at Huntingdon then he'd be strongly supported today but, given his last couple of runs, that's unlikely. So, the 7yo BALLYVONEEN trained by Neil King who won well at Plumpton LTO, and whose form has been on an upward curve since Boxing Day, looks the most likely winner of this
The Ayr meeting has a couple of interesting races worth looking at, especially the 4:00 which is a Class 2 handicap chase over 2m4f. Topweight Divers is being well-supported in this race following his decent run LTO at the Cheltenham Festival, but I like the look of TORPHICHEN in this race. He has been lightly tried over fences since coming over from Ireland and his recent run over this trip (he has mainly raced over 2m – 2m2f) at Haydock suggest that he's unexposed. As such, odds of 6/1 look more than fair as I'd have him at under 4/1 for this.
The Grand National still seems to be commanding a presence on the twitter-sphere, but the tragic accident that befell the exciting handicap chaser GREAT ENDEAVOUR yesterday – while in a field with just one other horse having been "put-to-grass for the summer – demonstrates that accidents can and do happen in the most unlikely circumstances (to those ill-informed about the management of horses). Horses are not born to be looked at, they are bred to run and the "fight or flight" survival mechanism in their heads makes them jittery and prone to unexplainable behaviour through which they can (and do) suffer injuries which render them helpless. Thankfully, the media circus has moved onto this weekend's Formula One Bahrain Grand Prix and the human rights issues there which, to be fair, have a far greater importance than the Grand National in the greater scheme of things.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 20 April 2012
Wednesday, 18 April 2012
Taking a back seat
The 471st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I'm going to take a back seat from making horseracing selections for the next few days as (probably due to the upset in my personal life over the past couple of weeks) I am just not making the right decisions when it comes to selecting horses for wagering purposes – and that is expensive. Yesterday, after a couple of ill-prepared trades on the exchanges, I managed more by luck than judgement to still be in a break-even position on the day, and then I made a catastrophic wager. It was stupid of me, but I was trying to find an easy route to a profit from which I could build-on today. What was even more daft of me was that there were a couple of horses running yesterday that I've written positive words about – and they won (ie Imperial Circus and Sea Saffron).
We have some interesting horseracing over the next few days, especially on the Flat. The Craven Meeting at Newmarket isn't one of my favourites from a wagering point of view, but it is very worthwhile to watch and make notes for the future. Similarly, the Newbury meeting at the weekend is a meeting to have the notebook handy.
There is a great column written by Simon Holt in today's Weekender and it repeats much of what I wrote on my blog yesterday (are you a reader Simon?). I was not aware of it, but Simon writes that at Lingfield on Saturday there were ex-racehorses available for inspection by the public, and there were horseracing "ambassadors" answering the public's questions and helping those who want to know, learn more about the intricacies of the sport. Simon Holt is not wrong in saying this sort of positive response is what horseracing needs more of. Do not underestimate the power of public opinion when nearly 11 million people watched the Grand National on the BBC last Saturday (which is 2 million more people than the audience for the FA Cup Final last May). Compare that with the number of complaints about the race registered by the BBC - which will probably total under 500.
I am aware that the RSPCA are expecting an immediate reaction from horseracing with regards to the Grand National, and there are some who think that horseracing should be running-scared from a body like the RSPCA. I'm not one of that group as I'd like to see the RSPCA challenged as to where their priorities lie. For instance, do they support Animal Aid and other extremist groups? What are the aims of the RSPCA in these modern times as it appears (to me) that it has moved away from its original premise. It should be taken into account by everyone that there is no place for a working horse in the modern world – horses exist solely for the entertainment of people and so, if horseracing is cruel then so is every other form of owning and keeping horses today. Does the RSPCA only want to see horses kept in a zoo (there are no truly wild horses in Europe today)?
Let's work together to promote all that is good about horseracing.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I'm going to take a back seat from making horseracing selections for the next few days as (probably due to the upset in my personal life over the past couple of weeks) I am just not making the right decisions when it comes to selecting horses for wagering purposes – and that is expensive. Yesterday, after a couple of ill-prepared trades on the exchanges, I managed more by luck than judgement to still be in a break-even position on the day, and then I made a catastrophic wager. It was stupid of me, but I was trying to find an easy route to a profit from which I could build-on today. What was even more daft of me was that there were a couple of horses running yesterday that I've written positive words about – and they won (ie Imperial Circus and Sea Saffron).
We have some interesting horseracing over the next few days, especially on the Flat. The Craven Meeting at Newmarket isn't one of my favourites from a wagering point of view, but it is very worthwhile to watch and make notes for the future. Similarly, the Newbury meeting at the weekend is a meeting to have the notebook handy.
There is a great column written by Simon Holt in today's Weekender and it repeats much of what I wrote on my blog yesterday (are you a reader Simon?). I was not aware of it, but Simon writes that at Lingfield on Saturday there were ex-racehorses available for inspection by the public, and there were horseracing "ambassadors" answering the public's questions and helping those who want to know, learn more about the intricacies of the sport. Simon Holt is not wrong in saying this sort of positive response is what horseracing needs more of. Do not underestimate the power of public opinion when nearly 11 million people watched the Grand National on the BBC last Saturday (which is 2 million more people than the audience for the FA Cup Final last May). Compare that with the number of complaints about the race registered by the BBC - which will probably total under 500.
I am aware that the RSPCA are expecting an immediate reaction from horseracing with regards to the Grand National, and there are some who think that horseracing should be running-scared from a body like the RSPCA. I'm not one of that group as I'd like to see the RSPCA challenged as to where their priorities lie. For instance, do they support Animal Aid and other extremist groups? What are the aims of the RSPCA in these modern times as it appears (to me) that it has moved away from its original premise. It should be taken into account by everyone that there is no place for a working horse in the modern world – horses exist solely for the entertainment of people and so, if horseracing is cruel then so is every other form of owning and keeping horses today. Does the RSPCA only want to see horses kept in a zoo (there are no truly wild horses in Europe today)?
Let's work together to promote all that is good about horseracing.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 17 April 2012
Grand National 2012 - a look back
The 470th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There has been plenty of reaction to this year's Grand National and, as most who have an interest in horseracing would expect, not much of it has been good. It has come to the time when those who are involved in the sport at any level – be it owner, trainer, jockey, stable-lad or lass, farrier, vet, gambler or even the once a year punter – either gets behind the sport or accepts that horseracing in all its forms will come to an end sooner rather than later.
I'll make no bones about it, I cannot tell the difference between a horse jumping Bechers Brook and a show-jumper taking part in the "Puissance" high jump competition when horses are asked to jump a wooden wall set at a minimum height of 5ft 7in and the current record (set in 1991) is 7ft 10in. Remember, Bechers Brook on the take-off side is just 4ft 10in high and the "drop" on the landing side is 5ft 8in. Come the Olympics this summer in London, how many will be protesting about the show-jumping and 3-day event involving horses? Flat racing is also in grave danger of being abolished along with jump racing. There were 3 horses euthanized after breaking limbs at Meydan in the same race last week, a horse broke a limb and was euthanized at Royal Ascot last summer, and the last time I saw a statistical record on horse injuries in racing it was evident that far more horses suffer injury racing on the flat that they do over jumps.
What is the answer? I suppose we could sacrifice the Grand National as a loss leader but, realistically, we all know that it would not end there. We basically need to galvanise support for racing and demonstrate how much it contributes to the economy and to the British way of life as a whole.
I would like to see horseracing embark on a popularity campaign and bring more people into contact with the horses themselves. Every Saturday meeting should have a few retired horses available for the public to get close to. Ambassadors for the sport should be freely available at every Saturday meeting to answer the public's questions and concerns. The BHA need to become more transparent, more approachable and they need to distance themselves away from the hunting and shooting fraternity. In fact, I'd like to see a couple of positions on the BHA board voted in by those in the industry every couple of years.
Whatever happens, now is a time for all those who love horseracing to get behind the sport and make their feelings known. Nearly 11 million people watched the Grand National on the BBC last Saturday which is 2 million more people than the audience for the FA Cup Final last May. What did those 11 million watch the race for?
We are at a major crossroads as the financial model currently being used for horseracing does not work well enough to sustain the sport in the UK. Animal rights extremists (and that's what they are, extremists who want everyone to be vegetarian and to outlaw even pet ownership) are getting far too much media exposure for the views they represent, which are not reflected by the mass majority of the British public.
Let's work together to promote all that is good about horseracing.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
There has been plenty of reaction to this year's Grand National and, as most who have an interest in horseracing would expect, not much of it has been good. It has come to the time when those who are involved in the sport at any level – be it owner, trainer, jockey, stable-lad or lass, farrier, vet, gambler or even the once a year punter – either gets behind the sport or accepts that horseracing in all its forms will come to an end sooner rather than later.
I'll make no bones about it, I cannot tell the difference between a horse jumping Bechers Brook and a show-jumper taking part in the "Puissance" high jump competition when horses are asked to jump a wooden wall set at a minimum height of 5ft 7in and the current record (set in 1991) is 7ft 10in. Remember, Bechers Brook on the take-off side is just 4ft 10in high and the "drop" on the landing side is 5ft 8in. Come the Olympics this summer in London, how many will be protesting about the show-jumping and 3-day event involving horses? Flat racing is also in grave danger of being abolished along with jump racing. There were 3 horses euthanized after breaking limbs at Meydan in the same race last week, a horse broke a limb and was euthanized at Royal Ascot last summer, and the last time I saw a statistical record on horse injuries in racing it was evident that far more horses suffer injury racing on the flat that they do over jumps.
What is the answer? I suppose we could sacrifice the Grand National as a loss leader but, realistically, we all know that it would not end there. We basically need to galvanise support for racing and demonstrate how much it contributes to the economy and to the British way of life as a whole.
I would like to see horseracing embark on a popularity campaign and bring more people into contact with the horses themselves. Every Saturday meeting should have a few retired horses available for the public to get close to. Ambassadors for the sport should be freely available at every Saturday meeting to answer the public's questions and concerns. The BHA need to become more transparent, more approachable and they need to distance themselves away from the hunting and shooting fraternity. In fact, I'd like to see a couple of positions on the BHA board voted in by those in the industry every couple of years.
Whatever happens, now is a time for all those who love horseracing to get behind the sport and make their feelings known. Nearly 11 million people watched the Grand National on the BBC last Saturday which is 2 million more people than the audience for the FA Cup Final last May. What did those 11 million watch the race for?
We are at a major crossroads as the financial model currently being used for horseracing does not work well enough to sustain the sport in the UK. Animal rights extremists (and that's what they are, extremists who want everyone to be vegetarian and to outlaw even pet ownership) are getting far too much media exposure for the views they represent, which are not reflected by the mass majority of the British public.
Let's work together to promote all that is good about horseracing.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Grand National 2012
The 469th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.
But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.
For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)
Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.
Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.
But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.
For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)
Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.
Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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