Tricky day, play it safe

Altho’ there was no selection yesterday, the alert list came good with a couple of short-priced winners. While I’m not a great believer in following short-priced runners, a successful £10 double on a couple of horses at “evens” returns the equivalent of a 3/1 winner. So, with the horse alerts flying in as regular winners, albeit at short prices, it may be worth combining them in doubles and trebles to small stakes.

So, straight off with the horse alert runners:-

Aintree:

1:55 – IFANDBUTWHYNOT

3:05 – VIVA COLONIA

3:40 – KRUZHLINIIN, SAVED BY JOHN

4:50 – YESYOUCAN

Chepstow

3:00 – SKI SUNDAY

4:10 – NOTUS DE LA TOUR

4:45 – MAJALA, SIRE DE GRUGY and THEATRICAL STAR

Stratford

3:20 – AL ALFA

Aintree, my “hometown” track (I was brought-up in Maghull just 3-miles north of the course) has a tricky card on paper. Possibly the strongest wager from my alert list is in the opening race with IFANDBUTWHYNOT. Firstly, the fav Karinga Bay is rated on the vastly improved form he showed over 2m4f when he last raced. IFANDBUTWHYNOT is a 2-mile specialist who went to the Festival as favourite for the County Hurdle where he raced respectably. Dropped 2lb for this, I think he has an excellent chance and I was expecting him to be 2/1.
Having Karinga Bay in the race means the odds for IFANDBUTWHYNOT are a generous 7/2.

The veterans chase looks very tricky and I’m not tempted by it.

The Old Roan Chase (a pub I used to drink in) is interesting. I reckon Walkon is overated at OR151, and that make this a wagering race. Last year, For Non Stop ran away with the race, but I can’t see anything similar in the race this year. My horse alert runner VIVA COLONIA is better than OR139 but I fear he’ll be outclassed in this. The horse that takes my eye is WISHFUL THINKING and, since I started writing this, his odds have shortened from 13/2 to 11/2. He will not run a poor race and will be on the premises at the finish.  There are a some potential rivals to him, mainly Astracad who will come good on one day this season, but on which day?  If he could be guaranteed to run to his best, my money would be on Astracad, but he’s too indifferent, hence being available at 10/1 with Ladbrokes as I write.

The 3:40 could be another wagering race as SAVED BY JOHN, currently 9/2 with Corals (BOG), will appreciate the trip and ground whereas Kruzhlinin would appreciate softer ground. This horse is another with a big future this season.  

At Chepstow, SKI SUNDAY looks like he’s found his winning opportunity. His jumping is getting better and his rating is well below his hurdle rating. This trip could suit him a lot better than his rivals, but his odds leave no room for error at just 7/2. Watch out for the ground at Chepstow as it’s heavy in places. Similar odds are available about MAJALA, bit we know this ground will be in his favour over this trip and he’s unexposed with some potential to improve. I like MAJALA, and I think he’s going to do well this season, especially when the ground is testing.

The day’s racing is very tricky and nothing stands-out as huge value as it did last week. So, I’d suggest smaller stakes and spread the load.

Selections

Aintree 1:55 IFANDBUTWHYNOT, £10 win @ 7/2 with Bet Victor or Paddy Power, both go BOG

Aintree 3:40 SAVED BY JOHN, £10 win @ 9/2 with Corals BOG (generally 4/1 elasewhere)

Chepstow 4:45 MAJALA, £10 win @ 100/30 with Paddy Power, BOG (generally 3/1 elsewhere)

Total = £30 staked

Fw: McCoy High Five

Here's me thinking that yesterday was a tricky day for finding winners, when all we had to do was follow AP McCoy at Carlisle where he rode 5 winners from 7 rides. In fact, the only horse he rode that properly disappointed, was the one I chose as the blog selection for the day. ABNAKI never got going, despite being a bit of a gamble starting as the 9/2, 3^rd fav. This performance was too bad to be true, and I hope that on a better day we will see ABNAKI recover the loss. The main thing from my point of view was that I was right to oppose the market leaders.

 

Of the 3 runners from my alert list, 2 won in Pendra @ 4/5 and Parsnip Pete @ 7/2; the latter looking fortunate when being left in a clear lead at the final flight when his rival fell. Personally tho' I think he'd have won anyway. It is not easy to decide whether a return to hurdles for a seasonal debut for a chaser is just a prep race or a proper attempt to win. With Parsnip Pete, the horse was ready to win, but for the other horse alert runner, Billy Cuckoo, he clearly wasn't ready to race as he was soon struggling. I know from twitter that some of you were on the alert runners anyway and scored an 8/1 double with Pendra and Parsnip Pete.

 

PENDRA remains on the alert list as he looks destined to be a high class chaser. PARSNIP PETE also remains on the alert list and is being aimed at a chase at the Cheltenham Open Meeting in November. I think Billy Cuckoo has had his day in the sun and I'll think on him over the weekend as to whether he stays on.

 

Onto today and we have a meeting at Fakenham.  

WONDERFUL CHARM is on my alert list, and he makes his chase debut today in the 2:20 but he looks head & shoulders better than these and is odds on at 8/11, so no wager from me (my minimum odds for a bet are 9/4).

In the 2:50, FIRST IN THE QUEUE is also on the alert list after winner LTO so emphatically, but he's also odd-on at 5/6.  I do like the look of LIGHTENING ROD in this race as he's  a very capable hurdler on his day. While I doubt he'll win this race (unless the race-fav has a mishap) he should be up for the runners-up spot.

is odds are also

The handicap chase over 3-mile at 3:25 looks interesting and I'm not sure why there is the drift on the Nicholls runner Current Event, now trading at 11/1.  The trip is an unknown, but claimer Harry Derham is well worth his 5lb claim. One that looks interesting is VICTOR LEUDORUM ridden by AP McCoy. Mr McCoy only has one other ruide at the meeting , and trainer Charlie Mann has sent out only 3 runners from his stable in the past 14-day but 2 have won! This is his only runner today, and current odds of 10/1 look fair for this unexposed chaser who will stay the trip and enjoy the ground. There are only 10 runners and at least 4 will be trying to prove their stamina and another couple are outclassed (unless they have turned a corner) so, there's a fair chance of being placed, yet currently 3.60 (5/2) is available on the place-only market.

Finally, I think RIddlestown with confirm the placings when he re-opposes Plum Pudding in the 2m5f chase at 4:30. Riddlestown is an unexposed horse as a chaser, and more likely to improve for the recent winning run , which was only his 3^rd chase. It's a class 5 race tho' and I'm never happy wagering on such lowly horses.

 

No recommended selections from me today, but I will probably have a place-only wager on Victor Leudorum.

 

Hole in the net

I've said it before and will say it again (no doubt), but I probably should follow my horse alerts without question.
There were 4 alerts yesterday;

Spanish Arch ran 3rd at 5/1 - he had disappointed a couple of times last season and this was his debut chase.

Fox Appeal ran 2nd at 7/4 - as I don't wager at odds less than 9/4 he was passed over and it was also his chase debut.

Black Thunder won at 11/4 - he beat Fox Appeal and was Paul Nicholls' only runner of the day. I did consider him as an advise but it looked too competitive a novice chase for his debut.
Both of these novice chasers look to have a bright future this season.

Finally,
Bally Legend won at 20/1 - this was somewhat fortuitous as the fav and 3rd-fav both fell at the first hurdle. Bally Legend had been chasing last season,  and I thought this hurdle was a pipe opener for the season.  I overlooked that Caroline Keevil always has her horses fit to race and well prepared. This was the furthest trip Bally Legend had won over and, as a hurdler,  he'd struggled beyond 2m3f. As such, I didn't expect a winning run but he probably was worth a place-only wager.

The jumps season really gets going with 3 meetings today at Carlisle,  Ludlow and Southwell.
There are 3 horse alerts for PENDRA,  BILLY CUCKOO,  and PARSNIP PETE.

PENDRA - Carlisle 2:20 - should win this chase debut easily, and is destined for the Cheltenham Festival and probably the 3-mile RSA Chase.  He's odds-on today and I will be watching only.

BILLY CUCKOO - Carlisle 4:30 - is a consistent trier at his level. He won at Carlisle last Feb over this trip tho' today's GS ground may be too lively. His OR109 rating is very lenient as he's about 120-125 at best as a chaser. The big doubt is his amateur rider, as such 8/1 is not value and I'm looking for 10/1 plus.

PARSNIP PETE - Southwell 3:05 - returns to hurdles after a decent chase season (2 wins from 5 races). Rated OR133 as a chaser, he could easily win this if up for it, and 4/1 is fair but more than 5/1 would be more realistic.

Other potential wagers are:-
Carlisle 3:25 ABNAKI - only 4 chase runs but a 3-mile hurdle winner at Cheltenham, this 3m2f trip should be within his compass.  This trip will test The Friary and Pyjama Game,  tho' the latter looks the stronger to me. The danger could be old-timer Vic Venturi if allowed an easy lead.

Southwell 3:35 BENEFIT CUT - trainer Renee Robeson had Paddy Brennan booked to ride her only runner. Stamina has to be taken on trust, as such I'd want 8/1 at least for a wager.

Selections
Carlisle 3:20 ABNAKI, £10 win @ 11/2 (available generally,  use BOG bookie)

All the best from Wayward Lad.

You lucky people!

You happy few! 
On Saturday, there were just 68 downloads of my blog page with the recommended selection of JOHNS SPIRIT @ 14/1 prior to the race at 2:35pm. 
After the race, when we'd all witnessed JOHNS SPIRIT cruise thru' the field like a knife thru' butter, there were a further 76 downloads of the page but they were too late. 
It has been a great start to the jumps season for the blog. I thought last season was a great one for profits but these last couple of weeks I've selected 3 winners at 14/1, 15/2 and 5/1 and a place-only selection at the equivalent odds of 7/2, plus an eachway placed, from just 9 selections. 

30th Sept: SPORTING BOY £10 ew @ 15/2 - WON - profit £90 
1st Oct: Cinevator £10 ew @ 12/1 - U/P - lost £20
4th Oct: HI NOTE £10 place-only @ 4.38 (ave) - WON (2nd) - profit £31.60
9th Oct: Lucys Girl £20 win @ 7/2 - U/P - lost £20
12th Oct: Merrion Square £5 ew @ 12/1 - U/P - lost £10
15th Oct: MULDOONS PICNIC £10 win @ 5/1 - WON - profit £50
16th Oct: NO PLANNING £5 ew @ 10/1 - 3rd - profit £5
18th Oct: Handy Andy £5 ew @ 16/1 - 4th (of 15) - lost £10
19th Oct: JOHNS SPIRIT £5 ew & £5 win @ 14/1 - WON - Profit £157.50

Current Bank = £2,274.10
profit = £274.10 from 9 wagers
staked = £125

The only disappointment has been the level of donations following this series of winners, especially Saturdays selection which was my only advised wager of the day. I felt really confident about JOHNS SPIRIT. So much so that I gave the advice to a very select few on the evening before when there were several bookies offering 14/1, not just Ladbrokes. I don't have to do this. I could have held onto my selection until an hour before the race when the odds had tumbled to 8/1, but I didn't. I posted at 8:21am giving all who read the blog ample time to get on.

I think that, after blogging my selections since March 2010,  that I've proven my integrity as a horseracing tipster as I've never made a loss over the course of a season,  jumps or flat.  So, if you benefitted from reading my blog on Saturday morning and made some money on the back of my selection,  do the right thing and make a donation.  

Many thanks to all those who have made a donation.  It is greatly appreciated. 

For those who donate more than £10 before Valentines Day (14th February 2014) I'll send you a free copy of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2014 when it's ready.  Last year's included a recommendation for CUE CARD for the Ryanair Chase.