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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 24 October 2013

Hole in the net

I've said it before and will say it again (no doubt), but I probably should follow my horse alerts without question.
There were 4 alerts yesterday;

Spanish Arch ran 3rd at 5/1 - he had disappointed a couple of times last season and this was his debut chase.

Fox Appeal ran 2nd at 7/4 - as I don't wager at odds less than 9/4 he was passed over and it was also his chase debut.

Black Thunder won at 11/4 - he beat Fox Appeal and was Paul Nicholls' only runner of the day. I did consider him as an advise but it looked too competitive a novice chase for his debut.
Both of these novice chasers look to have a bright future this season.

Bally Legend won at 20/1 - this was somewhat fortuitous as the fav and 3rd-fav both fell at the first hurdle. Bally Legend had been chasing last season,  and I thought this hurdle was a pipe opener for the season.  I overlooked that Caroline Keevil always has her horses fit to race and well prepared. This was the furthest trip Bally Legend had won over and, as a hurdler,  he'd struggled beyond 2m3f. As such, I didn't expect a winning run but he probably was worth a place-only wager.

The jumps season really gets going with 3 meetings today at Carlisle,  Ludlow and Southwell.
There are 3 horse alerts for PENDRA,  BILLY CUCKOO,  and PARSNIP PETE.

PENDRA - Carlisle 2:20 - should win this chase debut easily, and is destined for the Cheltenham Festival and probably the 3-mile RSA Chase.  He's odds-on today and I will be watching only.

BILLY CUCKOO - Carlisle 4:30 - is a consistent trier at his level. He won at Carlisle last Feb over this trip tho' today's GS ground may be too lively. His OR109 rating is very lenient as he's about 120-125 at best as a chaser. The big doubt is his amateur rider, as such 8/1 is not value and I'm looking for 10/1 plus.

PARSNIP PETE - Southwell 3:05 - returns to hurdles after a decent chase season (2 wins from 5 races). Rated OR133 as a chaser, he could easily win this if up for it, and 4/1 is fair but more than 5/1 would be more realistic.

Other potential wagers are:-
Carlisle 3:25 ABNAKI - only 4 chase runs but a 3-mile hurdle winner at Cheltenham, this 3m2f trip should be within his compass.  This trip will test The Friary and Pyjama Game,  tho' the latter looks the stronger to me. The danger could be old-timer Vic Venturi if allowed an easy lead.

Southwell 3:35 BENEFIT CUT - trainer Renee Robeson had Paddy Brennan booked to ride her only runner. Stamina has to be taken on trust, as such I'd want 8/1 at least for a wager.

Carlisle 3:20 ABNAKI, £10 win @ 11/2 (available generally,  use BOG bookie)

All the best from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. The first two from the alert list to run both won: Pendra @ 4/5 (easily) and Parsnip Pete @ 7/2 (left clear when leader fell at the last hurdle).
    Unfortunately, the third runner from the alert list - Billy Cuckoo - ran a poor race; and the blog selection ABNAKI was pulled-up when not looking at all comfortable.