Full steam ahead for Cheltenham

Last night I sent out the 4th and final handicap update to those who have made a donation to receive the Cheltenham Bulletin. This year, I've really burned the midnight oil in putting things together, it has been a "helluva" effort. That said, I reckon this year's information surpasses that I sent out last year, and I'm already making plans for how I'm going to spend the summer months preparing for next year's Festival.

If you want to receive the bulletin and all 4 handicap updates juts donate at least £8 using the "donate" button at the top of the screen and will issue as soon as the deposit is received. I've been a bit quiet  on the blogging front this week as Cheltenham has taken priority, but it's all back to normal now – until next Monday!

Regular readers will know that I operate an alert list using the easyodds.com alert system. Today, there are a couple of horses running from my alert list. I enjoy racing in this final week before the Festival as some races don't take an awful lot of winning as the better horses are waiting for the Festival.  At Carlisle in the 3:45 there is BEAU DANDY and at Wincanton in the 2:30 there is RUBEN COTTER.

Firstly, RUBEN COTTER; this Paul Nicholls novice chaser is currently odds-on at 2/5 to beat his 3 rivals having beaten the useful Vintage Star LTO on his chase debut. He looks a 150+ chaser in the making and should easily win this race. No recommended wager from me as he's at odds less than 9/4, but I really can't see him losing this unless for some unfortunate reason he does not finish the race.

BEAU DANDY looks more of a betting proposition. This 8yo won LTO at Newcastle on heavy ground over a 3-mile trip and, whereas this race is over 3m2f, he should have no problem with stamina today.  He's been raised 13lb for that win, which looks steep as before that win he'd been running consistently off a rating of OR92-93 without winning. That win LTO was attributed to 1st-time blinkers, but he was the subject of a significant gamble for that race so connections clearly thought he was well-in and, sure enough, he made-all and won fairly easily being in command a long way out. A lot of his opposition in this have been running poorly and it is difficult to see anything else that may produce a winning effort. Odds of 13/2 look far enough and he's worth an eachway wager.

Selection:
Carlisle 3:45, BEAU DANDY, ½pt eachway 13/2 (BetVictor & Stan James, ¼ odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Period of reflection

Saturday was another day without a degree of luck for the 3 selections posted on the blog.

First up was Night In Milan in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, and this was a horse who I thought would be in with a significant chance as I didn't expect the race to suit the race-fav Join Together. Well, I was right about Join Together as, despite suffering interference at the 3^rd fence, he just didn't have the speed to get involved.  I've always thought of him as a resolute galloper who prefers ether testing ground or a marathon trip to utilise his stamina. At Doncaster, he had no opportunity to get on terms on the unusually quick ground. My selection Night In Milan had started well enough and jumped the 3^rd fence perfectly, but he lost his footing on landing due to what appeared to be a patch of false ground. Sure enough, on the following circuit, Lord Villez blundered and skidded on-landing at the same fence losing his rider in a similar fashion. That was unlucky for Night In Milan, but that is how luck plays it's part in jump racing, and that is why I will not recommend a wager at odds of under 9/4.

  

That factor had stopped me advising a wager on TOUBAB in the earlier race at Doncaster. I did write on Saturday that TOUBAB was absolutely thrown-in off OR140 and that at the odds (at the time) of 6/4 he was probably the wager of the day. Sure enough, he made all to win comfortably, easily fending off his only realistic challenger. He should be followed for the remainder of the season so long as he races on similar ground.

At Newbury, my next selection The KNOXS looked the most likely winner approaching 4-out as he was going very easily. However, he made an error at that fence and seemed to lose all enthusiasm. If he'd have run to the form of his previous race at Newbury (when he fell at the final fence with the race in his pocket) then he'd have won this race fairly easily, but his confidence jumping seems to have taken a knock. Where next for him? Possibly a return to hurdles.

My final Saturday selection, BOLD SIR BRIAN, ran a stinker at Kelso. He seemed to be going easily enough for the first couple of miles at the tail of the field alongside the eventual winner Always Right but, when the pace picked-up, he quickly threw-in the towel. He did pretty much the same in his final race of last season, at Haydock mast March, and perhaps he can't take a lot of racing. I expect he'll be put away for the summer now, and I'd like to see him back for something like the Charlie Hall at Wetherby first-time-out next season as he's still only a 7yo and looks 160+ at his best. 

So then, how to cope with this losing run and bring it to an end? I have relied on my alert list for the majority of my selections this season to good effect. As such, it will be my alert list on which I will rely over the next week on the run-up to Cheltenham.

Preparations for the Cheltenham Festival continued over the weekend with the 2^nd issue of my handicap assessments focusing on days 2 & 3 of the festival being sent out yesterday (Sunday). There is just the assessment for the final days handicaps to come and then it is full steam ahead in finalising my selections for the Festival itself to have on the day. I am pretty sure which horses will be my main wagers of the 4-days of the Festival and I think I've managed to find some decent value in the handicap chases, it's just a question of will the horses on my shortlist line-up at the start of their respective races.

It seems that the weather is getting progressively milder and on Sunday the sun fell positively warm where I live, so we could see the ground dry out fairly quickly in the next week and a "good-to-soft" opening day looks on the cards, and probably "good" ground on Thursday and Friday a distinct likelihood. As such, given most of the racing this season has been soft/heavy ground, I expect we'll see a fair few long-odds winners next week.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Unfulfilled potential

It’s been a tricky week, and so I thought it best to take a day away from horseracing yesterday and try and come in the weekend fresh. There is plenty of decent racing today at Doncaster, Newbury and Kelso as we start to see horses running that will not be going to the Cheltenham Festival, but have other targets for the season, at Aintree in April for instance.

Doncaster holds the Grimthorpe Chase over 3m2f at 2:55 and Ruby Walsh rides there making a very rare visit. He’s only had 4 rides at Doncaster in the past 5 years and he rides several for Paul Nicholls today including JOIN TOGETHER in this race. I think Join Together has a great chance of taking the Grand National, he looks just the right sort of horse who will relish the ultimate test for horse and jockey, but I’m not sure about today’s race. The horse that win’s will need to produce a bit of speed on the run-in and for me, Join Together is one-paced. The horse I keep getting drawn to is NIGHT IN MILAN who finished with a rally here in December to go down by just a nose to Court By Surprise who he meets today on 1lb better terms. The fly in the ointment is Mr Moonshine who was also n that December race and is 7lb better off with NIGHT IN MILAN compared with that day. Mr Mooshine is slipping down the handicap but he looks a hard horse to win with and looks best when the going is “soft”. At the current odds, 15/2 looks fair value about NIGHT IN MILAN as the pace should be decent and suit his running style. Join Together will either win doing handsprings or flop, and I feel he’ll flop today on ground that is too quick for him over a trip that is too short.

The horse that I think Walsh is here to ride is TOUBAB who looks absolutely thrown-in with OR140 and finally gets his best ground. If this horses isn’t 155+ before the end of the season then Nicholls can’t do his job. Unfortunately, TOUBAB is only 6/4 so, as I don’t advise wagers at odds under 9/4, he’s not a blog selection. But, at 6/4 he could be the wager of the day.

At Newbury, the feature race is at 3:50the Greatwood Gold Cup handicap chase over 2m4f. The market thinks David Pipe has another handicap snip in Garynella, another French import who is 3/1 in the betting. Pepite Rose will have  a lot of support, but this horse seems to need racing and I’ll expect it to come on for today’s run. THE KNOXS has unfulfilled potential. Yes, he does have a problem with his jumping and took a heavy fall LTO when looking the likely winner, but he does look a lot better than OR145. At 6/1 (available Paddy Power, Stan James & Coral) he’s worth a wager.  

At Kelso, I expect BOLD SIR BRIAN to get the better of Harry Topper at level weights over a trip that may be on the short side for Harry Topper.  Odds of 100/30 (Bet Victor & Corals) is too big to resist in what is effectively a match.

Selections:

Doncaster 2:55, NIGHT IN MILAN, ½pt eachway @ 15/2 (various ¼odds a place, 1,2,3 all BOG)

Newbury 3:50, THE KNOXS, 1pt win @ 6/1 (available Paddy Power, Stan James & Coral, all BOG)

Kelso 4:15, BOLD SIR BRIAN, 1pt win @ 100/30 (Bet Victor & Corals, both BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Time to buck the trend

Regular readers will know that I operate an alert list using the easyodds.com alert system. The reason I use easyodds (and not another provider) is that it's a free service and, as far as I know, it is unlimited  in the number of horses you can enter onto it. I'm at 200 horses, all national hunt, and what it means to me is that I am able to know when those entered are due to run.  

 

Yesterday, there were 3 horses from my alert system running and, for various reasons, I chose not to make them selections and subject to a proper wager. That was a blunder as one ran 2^nd (Sustainability @ 7/2 in the 3:00 at Wincanton) and the other two won (Storm Survivor @ 7/1 in the 3:50 at Bangor, and Emperor's Choice @ 9/4 in the 4:10 at Lingfield).

I opted-out of a wager on Sustainability as there were only 4 horses in the race, and I really don't like having a wager in races with less than 6 runners. Storm Survivor was the surprise of the afternoon as, after he ran 2^nd on 6^th Feb, in my opinion he'd been harshly treated by the handicapper in being raised 10lb to OR120. I also did not think he'd drift to 7/1 as he was 5's in the morning with only one bookie and 9/2 or 4/1 with the others, as such he did not even look a worthwhile eachway wager in the morning. He stays 3-mile well (he beat Barafundle at 3-mile over hurdles on 29^th December) and in carrying 11st 12lb to victory in this, I reckon he can be followed NTO. Emperor's Choice was on the "cusp" of being a selection, but his morning odds were 2/1 and even tho' he started at 9/4 it looked too competitive a race on paper and I was hoping for 3/1. Emperor's Choice heads for the Festival and the 4-mile chase there, where he should run well.

 

Today, there are a couple of horses from my alert list running. One is FOX RUN in the 2:10 at Taunton, but he's already odds-on and won't be a wager for me. The other is BUCK MULLIGAN in the 3:30 at Ludlow, a 3-mile handicap chase. Currently at 6/1 with Bet365 (he's 11/2 with most other bookmakers) that to me is a fair price. Both Pearlysteps and Politeo will find this trip beyond their best, and Ballyoliver (who has been a wager of mine for his last 2 runs) is on a recovery mission today having been taken off my alert list. Nobody really knows what sort of mood Zarrafakt will arrive in; if he's on form then he could take some beating, but it is a big "if". The one who could give my selection most to do is the novice chaser Grove Pride. He won his debut chase over 3-mile at Exeter, but has been very highly tried since. Early money for him has resulted in his odds being cut from 12/1 to 7/1, but he does need to show that debut win was not a one-off. This 3-mile trip could stretch BUCK MULLIGAN, so I am loathe to take less than 6/1 as at 5^th odds there is the "saver" facility of an eachway wager. But, he ran so well when last seen in November that I reckon he'll be hard to beat. I've questioned his stamina, but he did win over 3m2f here at Ludlow in a chase way back in December 2010 in his debut chase as a novice.

 

Selection:

Ludlow 3:30, BUCK MULLIGAN, ½pt eachway 11/2 (Bet365, 5^th odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)

 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad