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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday, 28 February 2013

Time to buck the trend

Regular readers will know that I operate an alert list using the easyodds.com alert system. The reason I use easyodds (and not another provider) is that it's a free service and, as far as I know, it is unlimited  in the number of horses you can enter onto it. I'm at 200 horses, all national hunt, and what it means to me is that I am able to know when those entered are due to run.  
Yesterday, there were 3 horses from my alert system running and, for various reasons, I chose not to make them selections and subject to a proper wager. That was a blunder as one ran 2nd (Sustainability @ 7/2 in the 3:00 at Wincanton) and the other two won (Storm Survivor @ 7/1 in the 3:50 at Bangor, and Emperor's Choice @ 9/4 in the 4:10 at Lingfield).
I opted-out of a wager on Sustainability as there were only 4 horses in the race, and I really don't like having a wager in races with less than 6 runners. Storm Survivor was the surprise of the afternoon as, after he ran 2nd on 6th Feb, in my opinion he'd been harshly treated by the handicapper in being raised 10lb to OR120. I also did not think he'd drift to 7/1 as he was 5's in the morning with only one bookie and 9/2 or 4/1 with the others, as such he did not even look a worthwhile eachway wager in the morning. He stays 3-mile well (he beat Barafundle at 3-mile over hurdles on 29th December) and in carrying 11st 12lb to victory in this, I reckon he can be followed NTO. Emperor's Choice was on the "cusp" of being a selection, but his morning odds were 2/1 and even tho' he started at 9/4 it looked too competitive a race on paper and I was hoping for 3/1. Emperor's Choice heads for the Festival and the 4-mile chase there, where he should run well.
Today, there are a couple of horses from my alert list running. One is FOX RUN in the 2:10 at Taunton, but he's already odds-on and won't be a wager for me. The other is BUCK MULLIGAN in the 3:30 at Ludlow, a 3-mile handicap chase. Currently at 6/1 with Bet365 (he's 11/2 with most other bookmakers) that to me is a fair price. Both Pearlysteps and Politeo will find this trip beyond their best, and Ballyoliver (who has been a wager of mine for his last 2 runs) is on a recovery mission today having been taken off my alert list. Nobody really knows what sort of mood Zarrafakt will arrive in; if he's on form then he could take some beating, but it is a big "if". The one who could give my selection most to do is the novice chaser Grove Pride. He won his debut chase over 3-mile at Exeter, but has been very highly tried since. Early money for him has resulted in his odds being cut from 12/1 to 7/1, but he does need to show that debut win was not a one-off. This 3-mile trip could stretch BUCK MULLIGAN, so I am loathe to take less than 6/1 as at 5th odds there is the "saver" facility of an eachway wager. But, he ran so well when last seen in November that I reckon he'll be hard to beat. I've questioned his stamina, but he did win over 3m2f here at Ludlow in a chase way back in December 2010 in his debut chase as a novice.
Ludlow 3:30, BUCK MULLIGAN, ½pt eachway 11/2 (Bet365, 5th odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)
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1 comment:

  1. There was a time when Venetia Williams best time of the year was January, this season she has been on top form throughout and you ignore her horses at your peril, she could be in for a good festival.


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