Time to buck the trend

Regular readers will know that I operate an alert list using the easyodds.com alert system. The reason I use easyodds (and not another provider) is that it's a free service and, as far as I know, it is unlimited  in the number of horses you can enter onto it. I'm at 200 horses, all national hunt, and what it means to me is that I am able to know when those entered are due to run.  

 

Yesterday, there were 3 horses from my alert system running and, for various reasons, I chose not to make them selections and subject to a proper wager. That was a blunder as one ran 2^nd (Sustainability @ 7/2 in the 3:00 at Wincanton) and the other two won (Storm Survivor @ 7/1 in the 3:50 at Bangor, and Emperor's Choice @ 9/4 in the 4:10 at Lingfield).

I opted-out of a wager on Sustainability as there were only 4 horses in the race, and I really don't like having a wager in races with less than 6 runners. Storm Survivor was the surprise of the afternoon as, after he ran 2^nd on 6^th Feb, in my opinion he'd been harshly treated by the handicapper in being raised 10lb to OR120. I also did not think he'd drift to 7/1 as he was 5's in the morning with only one bookie and 9/2 or 4/1 with the others, as such he did not even look a worthwhile eachway wager in the morning. He stays 3-mile well (he beat Barafundle at 3-mile over hurdles on 29^th December) and in carrying 11st 12lb to victory in this, I reckon he can be followed NTO. Emperor's Choice was on the "cusp" of being a selection, but his morning odds were 2/1 and even tho' he started at 9/4 it looked too competitive a race on paper and I was hoping for 3/1. Emperor's Choice heads for the Festival and the 4-mile chase there, where he should run well.

 

Today, there are a couple of horses from my alert list running. One is FOX RUN in the 2:10 at Taunton, but he's already odds-on and won't be a wager for me. The other is BUCK MULLIGAN in the 3:30 at Ludlow, a 3-mile handicap chase. Currently at 6/1 with Bet365 (he's 11/2 with most other bookmakers) that to me is a fair price. Both Pearlysteps and Politeo will find this trip beyond their best, and Ballyoliver (who has been a wager of mine for his last 2 runs) is on a recovery mission today having been taken off my alert list. Nobody really knows what sort of mood Zarrafakt will arrive in; if he's on form then he could take some beating, but it is a big "if". The one who could give my selection most to do is the novice chaser Grove Pride. He won his debut chase over 3-mile at Exeter, but has been very highly tried since. Early money for him has resulted in his odds being cut from 12/1 to 7/1, but he does need to show that debut win was not a one-off. This 3-mile trip could stretch BUCK MULLIGAN, so I am loathe to take less than 6/1 as at 5^th odds there is the "saver" facility of an eachway wager. But, he ran so well when last seen in November that I reckon he'll be hard to beat. I've questioned his stamina, but he did win over 3m2f here at Ludlow in a chase way back in December 2010 in his debut chase as a novice.

 

Selection:

Ludlow 3:30, BUCK MULLIGAN, ½pt eachway 11/2 (Bet365, 5^th odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)

 

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