My couple of selections ran fairly well without winning on Saturday, the best of the pair being CALETT MAD who was the subject of a bit of a gamble from 10/1 in to 7/1 co-fav and looked (in my opinion) like being involved in the finish on the approach to the 3rd-last but was unable to keep up with the leading pair on the rising ground on the run to the 2nd last. He did stay on to be 4th which meant my advised wager on him returned a profit.
I'm not sure what to make of the winner, Relentless Dreamer, as this was the 9yo's 24th chase race and he had never won off as high a rating as OR134 before (previous wins were off OR132 and OR128). However, he is a consistent performer on "good" ground around this 3-mile trip (does not really stay beyond 3m2f well enough to win races). The runner-up Cogry ran a cracker, right up to last years winning performance, but (going forward) his best performances have also been on "good" ground and so a soft/heavy ground winter season may not be to his advantage: Also, he's not won over trips beyond 3m2f despite many attempts.
My other selection Bigmatre, ran below expectation and perhaps needed the run when you consider the performance of the runner-up Duke Of Arran - on a line through that horse he should really have been in the frame.
On Sunday at Aintree, I missed recommending a good winner in Frodon, who had very little to beat if you thought Flying Angel was unlikely to return to the form of his novice season. It seems a long time ago now since he powered past Cloudy Dream at Aintree in April 2017 - with Frodon back in 5th and non-other than Top Notch in 3rd. The race fav was Cloudy Dream and although this horse is (to his credit) a model of consistency, he is no better than OR150 at best - you have to remember the horse has not won since April 2017 at Ayr. By comparison, Frodon ran over 10lb superior (in my opinion) to Cloudy Dream twice last season and ran better than 150 on another 3 occassions. With Frodon recieving 2lb on Sunday from Cloudy Dream, so long as he was fit enough he was more than good enough - I just wish I'd taken the early 7/1 that was available, but the SP of 9/2 was very generous.
We have the Charlie Hall Chase on Saturday at Wetherby, and the current fav is Thistlecrack at 7/4. This horse will have to be at his peak to win and - must as I'd love it to happen - I can't see this 10yo pulling a career-best out of the bag in his first run in nearly 11 months. Last year I tipped Bristol De Mai for this, but he ran without a 6lb penalty and on soft ground. He is not the same horse on good ground but I'm sure he will run well. Clan Des Obeaux just isn't good enough based on his form last season, unless he's found about 10lb of improvement over the summer. However, Nicholls other entry BLACK CORTON is capable of winning based on his defeat of Ms Parfois by 8-lengths at Ascot in February, and he was giving that mare 7lb. Definitly Red is another horse that needs mud, and if we have mud I'd rather be on Bristol De Mai. Double Shuffle is another who just isn't good enough to win this, unless better quality rivals don't finish the race.
Of the Gordon Elliot entries, Outlander appears to have been aimed at this race and he will go close. But the one who could take a lot of beating if he is able to come to the races fit to run is DON POLI who will be returning from a 629-day break.
At this time, BLACK CORTON on 8/1 with Paddy Power looks the best value. He should handle the ground and providing he is not run ragged from the front, and Bryony Frost knows what she is doing in the saddle, then this horse has a great chance. I expect Thistlecrack not to last home (as happened at Kempton LTO), and I think Bristol De Mai will not "quicken" in the final half-mile on the "good" ground. OUTLANDER at 20/1 with Paddy Power could be a cracking wager for a place, but I'm not sure any of the Elliot horses will come over for the race.
Tuesday, 30 October 2018
Friday, 26 October 2018
Cheltenham - Saturday 27th October
The first big Saturday of the jumps season sees racing return to Cheltenham, and we also have a supporting jumps meeting at Kelso. The ground looks perfect at Cheltenham and we should be set for a great day’s racing. The plan this jumps season is to follow the lead set last year writing a blog at the weekends and focusing mainly on the major Saturday races. This paid-off well last season, and I found some decent winners. Already this season I’ve provided profitable wagers, for instance yesterday my narrative on the blog only highlighted one race, the 20-runner 2m 5f handicap hurdle run at Cheltenham and my shortlist of 2 against the field were FIRST ASSIGNMENT who won at 9/2 (was 8/1 when the blog went online) and CHRISTMAS IN APRIL who was 3rd at 7/1 (was 10/1 when the blog went online). So, if you find the advice I provide to be useful and profitable, please use the donate button and “spread the wealth”.
The action gets off to a bang with a 3m1f Class 2 handicap chase at 2:10pm and a good place to start is last year’s winner Cogry who returns to run off a rating just 2lb higher at OR135. With Sam Twiston-Davies back in the saddle there is no reason the horse cannot run a similar – or better – performance than last year. The 8yo Laurium showed LTO that he should not be underestimated but whether he can repeat that effort off a 7lb higher rating is debateable. A better show may come from Shantou Village who was a decent novice chaser and comes here having had a busy summer. There’s no reason he won’t stay this trip on this ground (the soft beat him LTO).
Another interesting runner is Calett Mad (stablemate of Cogry) who looked a top novice chaser but then reverted to hurdling last season. He was the fav for the 2m5f Class 1 “Summer Plate” h’cap chase LTO but that trip was too short for this multiple 3-mile hurdle winner. He looks well handicapped on OR142.
At the bottom of the handicap, For Good Measure carries just 10st 1lb but he looks a tad one-paced for me. He should improve for the step-up in trip to 3-mile but this is only his 3rd chase race and there will be no hiding place for him.
Finally, if the wind operation works for Braqueur D’Or then he could be on a lenient rating of OR135 as he ran a couple of decent races this time last year at Ascot and Newbury. However, all things considered, I’m favouring CALETT MAD @ 10/1 especially as Daryl Jacob rides and he has a 30% strike-rate when riding for Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Some bookies are paying 5 places to a 5th odds a place.
Another interesting runner is Calett Mad (stablemate of Cogry) who looked a top novice chaser but then reverted to hurdling last season. He was the fav for the 2m5f Class 1 “Summer Plate” h’cap chase LTO but that trip was too short for this multiple 3-mile hurdle winner. He looks well handicapped on OR142.
At the bottom of the handicap, For Good Measure carries just 10st 1lb but he looks a tad one-paced for me. He should improve for the step-up in trip to 3-mile but this is only his 3rd chase race and there will be no hiding place for him.
Finally, if the wind operation works for Braqueur D’Or then he could be on a lenient rating of OR135 as he ran a couple of decent races this time last year at Ascot and Newbury. However, all things considered, I’m favouring CALETT MAD @ 10/1 especially as Daryl Jacob rides and he has a 30% strike-rate when riding for Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Some bookies are paying 5 places to a 5th odds a place.
At 3:10pm we have a disappointing turn-out for the 2-mile Class 2 handicap chase with just 7 runners going to post – but the race does look competitive. I don’t like either of the Paul Nicholls entries: Modus and Tommy Silver. Of the pair, Modus is (in my opinion) the better horse over hurdles but he still has to prove himself as a chaser at this level. I like the look of BIGMATRE who won 3 of 5 chase races last season so we know he jumps well. He finished ahead of Modus when they met at Cheltenham and some may consider him to be badly handicapped on that run as Modus was rated a 5lb better horse going into that race, and Modus was given an easy time when he was beat. However, I think this trip will suit BIGMATRE well and Modus does not look a natural chaser, he certainly didn’t at Cheltenham in March. Odds of 7/2 this morning (he was 3/1 last night) look fair and it would not surprise me if BIGMATRE started at shorter than 5/2.
Selections
Cheltenham 2:00pm CALETT MAD - £5 eachway @ 10/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Cheltenham 3:10pm BIGMATRE - £10 win @ 7/2 (Bet365, BetVictor, etc)
Selections
Cheltenham 2:00pm CALETT MAD - £5 eachway @ 10/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Cheltenham 3:10pm BIGMATRE - £10 win @ 7/2 (Bet365, BetVictor, etc)
Thursday, 25 October 2018
Weekend review: 26th October - 28th October
An exciting weekend of jump racing lies ahead, with the opening meetings of the season from premier tracks Cheltenham (Friday and Saturday) and Aintree (Sunday), as well as supporting meetings at Kelso (Saturday) and Wincanton (Sunday). Let me remind you that there is no hurry to get involved with a wager - there is plenty of racing so pick and choose your wagers, and, with that in mind, the educated punter holds the advantage.
Time constraints prevented me from posting a blog last Saturday, but the suggested wager which I posted on twitter and on this blog, very nearly came off. It was an eachway double on CORONET at Ascot, and LE PREZIEN at Ffos Las and both horses came home in 2nd placed which meant the place double was successful. If you had placed a £5 eachway double (£10 staked) you would have left the bookies with over £28 in your hand. When considering an eachway double both of your selections must have a realistic chance of winning. I really thought that CORONET was the strongest horse in her race and she ran bang to form; I rate her a solid OR110 horse, very consistent, and that's what I reckon she ran on Saturday. Unfortunately, the Aidan O'Brien trained Magician managed to transfer her form over a mile to the 12-furlong trip and that was something I did not anticipate.
LE PREZIEN is another consistent performer, and although seen over fences last season, he has improved in stature and I thought he was on a lenient rating for hurdles, but he met a well-handicapped rival in the 5yo Silver Streak.
Back to racing on Friday, and the meeting at Cheltenham offers few wagering opportunities unless you fancy taking a chance on the several novice races on the card. The 20-runners handicap hurdle over 2m5f looks particularly tough to solve. What's interesting is that only one winner in the past 10 years was older than 6yo; all the other 9 winners were 5yo or 6yo. Also, the market has been a good guide, with no winner at odds longer than 12/1. Currently, only the 5yo First Assignment @ 8/1 and the 6yo Christmas In April @ 10/1 fit those criteria, and the unexposed FIRST ASSIGNMENT looks an interesting runner.
The amateur riders handicap chase at 4:55pm run over 3m1f is a race that I usually have a wager in, but this years race looks wide open. There will be other days to have a wager.
Keep your powder dry.
Time constraints prevented me from posting a blog last Saturday, but the suggested wager which I posted on twitter and on this blog, very nearly came off. It was an eachway double on CORONET at Ascot, and LE PREZIEN at Ffos Las and both horses came home in 2nd placed which meant the place double was successful. If you had placed a £5 eachway double (£10 staked) you would have left the bookies with over £28 in your hand. When considering an eachway double both of your selections must have a realistic chance of winning. I really thought that CORONET was the strongest horse in her race and she ran bang to form; I rate her a solid OR110 horse, very consistent, and that's what I reckon she ran on Saturday. Unfortunately, the Aidan O'Brien trained Magician managed to transfer her form over a mile to the 12-furlong trip and that was something I did not anticipate.
LE PREZIEN is another consistent performer, and although seen over fences last season, he has improved in stature and I thought he was on a lenient rating for hurdles, but he met a well-handicapped rival in the 5yo Silver Streak.
Back to racing on Friday, and the meeting at Cheltenham offers few wagering opportunities unless you fancy taking a chance on the several novice races on the card. The 20-runners handicap hurdle over 2m5f looks particularly tough to solve. What's interesting is that only one winner in the past 10 years was older than 6yo; all the other 9 winners were 5yo or 6yo. Also, the market has been a good guide, with no winner at odds longer than 12/1. Currently, only the 5yo First Assignment @ 8/1 and the 6yo Christmas In April @ 10/1 fit those criteria, and the unexposed FIRST ASSIGNMENT looks an interesting runner.
The amateur riders handicap chase at 4:55pm run over 3m1f is a race that I usually have a wager in, but this years race looks wide open. There will be other days to have a wager.
Keep your powder dry.
Saturday, 20 October 2018
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