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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday 30 October 2018

Big weekend coming up

My couple of selections ran fairly well without winning on Saturday, the best of the pair being CALETT MAD who was the subject of a bit of a gamble from 10/1 in to 7/1 co-fav and looked (in my opinion) like being involved in the finish on the approach to the 3rd-last but was unable to keep up with the leading pair on the rising ground on the run to the 2nd last.  He did stay on to be 4th which meant my advised wager on him returned a profit.
I'm not sure what to make of the winner, Relentless Dreamer, as this was the 9yo's 24th chase race and he had never won off as high a rating as OR134 before (previous wins were off OR132 and OR128). However, he is a consistent performer on "good" ground around this 3-mile trip (does not really stay beyond 3m2f well enough to win races).  The runner-up Cogry ran a cracker, right up to last years winning performance, but (going forward) his best performances have also been on "good" ground and so a soft/heavy ground winter season may not be to his advantage: Also, he's not won over trips beyond 3m2f despite many attempts.
My other selection Bigmatre, ran below expectation and perhaps needed the run when you consider the performance of the runner-up Duke Of Arran - on a line through that horse he should really have been in the frame. 
On Sunday at Aintree, I missed recommending a good winner in Frodon, who had very little to beat if you thought Flying Angel was unlikely to return to the form of his novice season.  It seems a long time ago now since he powered past Cloudy Dream at Aintree in April 2017 - with Frodon back in 5th and non-other than Top Notch in 3rd. The race fav was Cloudy Dream and although this horse is (to his credit) a model of consistency, he is no better than OR150 at best - you have to remember the horse has not won since April 2017 at Ayr.  By comparison, Frodon ran over 10lb superior (in my opinion) to Cloudy Dream twice last season and ran better than 150 on another 3 occassions. With Frodon recieving 2lb on Sunday from Cloudy Dream, so long as he was fit enough he was more than good enough - I just wish I'd taken the early 7/1 that was available, but the SP of 9/2 was very generous.
We have the Charlie Hall Chase on Saturday at Wetherby, and the current fav is Thistlecrack at 7/4. This horse will have to be at his peak to win and - must as I'd love it to happen - I can't see this 10yo pulling a career-best out of the bag in his first run in nearly 11 months. Last year I tipped Bristol De Mai for this, but he ran without a 6lb penalty and on soft ground. He is not the same horse on good ground but I'm sure he will run well. Clan Des Obeaux just isn't good enough based on his form last season, unless he's found about 10lb of improvement over the summer. However, Nicholls other entry BLACK CORTON is capable of winning based on his defeat of Ms Parfois by 8-lengths at Ascot in February, and he was giving that mare 7lb. Definitly Red is another horse that needs mud, and if we have mud I'd rather be on Bristol De Mai.  Double Shuffle is another who just isn't good enough to win this, unless better quality rivals don't finish the race.
Of the Gordon Elliot entries, Outlander appears to have been aimed at this race and he will go close.  But the one who could take a lot of beating if he is able to come to the races fit to run is DON POLI who will be returning from a 629-day break.
At this time, BLACK CORTON on 8/1 with Paddy Power looks the best value. He should handle the ground and providing he is not run ragged from the front, and Bryony Frost knows what she is doing in the saddle, then this horse has a great chance. I expect Thistlecrack not to last home (as happened at Kempton LTO), and I think Bristol De Mai will not "quicken" in the final half-mile on the "good" ground. OUTLANDER at 20/1 with Paddy Power could be a cracking wager for a place, but I'm not sure any of the Elliot horses will come over for the race.

1 comment:

  1. I think Relentless Dreamer has improved over summer. It was Curtis/Wedge only runner/ride last Sat so plan came off!