Cheltenham - Saturday 27th October

The first big Saturday of the jumps season sees racing return to Cheltenham, and we also have a supporting jumps meeting at Kelso.  The ground looks perfect at Cheltenham and we should be set for a great day’s racing. The plan this jumps season is to follow the lead set last year writing a blog at the weekends and focusing mainly on the major Saturday races.  This paid-off well last season, and I found some decent winners. Already this season I’ve provided profitable wagers, for instance yesterday my narrative on the blog only highlighted one race, the 20-runner 2m 5f handicap hurdle run at Cheltenham and my shortlist of 2 against the field were FIRST ASSIGNMENT who won at 9/2 (was 8/1 when the blog went online) and CHRISTMAS IN APRIL who was 3^rd at 7/1 (was 10/1 when the blog went online).  So, if you find the advice I provide to be useful and profitable, please use the donate button and “spread the wealth”.  

The action gets off to a bang with a 3m1f Class 2 handicap chase at 2:10pm and a good place to start is last year’s winner Cogry who returns to run off a rating just 2lb higher at OR135. With Sam Twiston-Davies back in the saddle there is no reason the horse cannot run a similar – or better – performance than last year.  The 8yo Laurium showed LTO that he should not be underestimated but whether he can repeat that effort off a 7lb higher rating is debateable. A better show may come from Shantou Village who was a decent novice chaser and comes here having had a busy summer. There’s no reason he won’t stay this trip on this ground (the soft beat him LTO). 
Another interesting runner is Calett Mad (stablemate of Cogry) who looked a top novice chaser but then reverted to hurdling last season. He was the fav for the 2m5f Class 1 “Summer Plate” h’cap chase LTO but that trip was too short for this multiple 3-mile hurdle winner. He looks well handicapped on OR142. 
At the bottom of the handicap, For Good Measure carries just 10st 1lb but he looks a tad one-paced for me. He should improve for the step-up in trip to 3-mile but this is only his 3rd chase race and there will be no hiding place for him. 
Finally, if the wind operation works for Braqueur D’Or then he could be on a lenient rating of OR135 as he ran a couple of decent races this time last year at Ascot and Newbury. However, all things considered, I’m favouring CALETT MAD @ 10/1 especially as Daryl Jacob rides and he has a 30% strike-rate when riding for Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Some bookies are paying 5 places to a 5th odds a place.

At 3:10pm we have a disappointing turn-out for the 2-mile Class 2 handicap chase with just 7 runners going to post – but the race does look competitive. I don’t like either of the Paul Nicholls entries: Modus and Tommy Silver.  Of the pair, Modus is (in my opinion) the better horse over hurdles but he still has to prove himself as a chaser at this level.  I like the look of BIGMATRE who won 3 of 5 chase races last season so we know he jumps well. He finished ahead of Modus when they met at Cheltenham and some may consider him to be badly handicapped on that run as Modus was rated a 5lb better horse going into that race, and Modus was given an easy time when he was beat. However, I think this trip will suit BIGMATRE well and Modus does not look a natural chaser, he certainly didn’t at Cheltenham in March. Odds of 7/2 this morning (he was 3/1 last night) look fair and it would not surprise me if BIGMATRE started at shorter than 5/2.

Selections
Cheltenham 2:00pm CALETT MAD - £5 eachway @ 10/1 (Bet365 quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Cheltenham 3:10pm BIGMATRE - £10 win @ 7/2 (Bet365, BetVictor, etc)