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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 10 November 2011
AP McCoy & Henderson team-up at Ludlow
Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.
There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.
Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.
I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.
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