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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Saturday, 12 November 2011
Time to Loosen My Load
Yesterday’s selection CRACK AWAY JACK was unplaced, but he did run a brave race in the circumstances. When travelling well, he hit the 3rd last fence hard and sustained a very bad cut. Even so, he battled-back to finish a close-up 5th. Without that error, I feel certain he would have finished very close to winning.
The performance of the day was from GRANDS CRUS and what a performance! He should be aimed at the Arkle in my opinion, as the RSA chase has proved a gruelling nightmare for some novice chasers, who have never recovered.
A great day today, and with 12 horses on my personal alert list running, I have a fair bit of sorting out to do. In the opener at Cheltenham, the Nichools and Henderson pair may head the market, but Alan King’s SECRET EDGE is the best juvenile in his stable – and he knows a thing or two about juvenile hurdlers.
The 1:55 looks another cracker of a race. The fav is Promising Anshan, who is on my alert list, but so is BALTHAZAR KING. I think Promising Anshan is a bit one-paced and he may find the going a bit quick today. He is undoubtedly well-handicapped as my respected tipping rival “The Prophet” in the Weekender has tipped him for this. But, for me BALTHAZAR KING should relish a return to Cheltenham where he’s won twice. Odds of 11/1 look fair value.
I looked at the Paddy Power (2:35) yesterday, and both of my two from my alert list (Noble Alan & Swincombe Rock) are out of the handicap. I expect them both to run well, but not win. WISHFUL THINKING is on my 3-to-follow list (see adjacent page) and at 8:30am he was 8/1 for 15mins. He should be in the 1st-3, but as Long Run showed last season, this race takes a light weight to win. For me it’s LOOSEN MY LOAD at 18/1 with Vic Chandler who goes a 3rd the odds ew the 1st-4.
At Uttoxeter, I think PRESENT TO YOU will prove hard to beat in the 2:40, but the value has been missed here. If you can get 11/4 or longer, then take it.
At Wetherby, the 2:55 is interesting. Vamizi last won off OR103 and since then he’s been 2nd 4 times and is now on OR121. He’s one-paced. I’m going to assume that WOLF MOON has been well-schooled for this as he comes into the race fit from a recent hurdle run. At 5/1, it’s not great value (was hoping for a bit longer) but this could be a weak race.
Cheltenham 1:55, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:35, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew @ 18/1 (Vic Chandler, 3rd odds 1,2,3,4)
Wetherby 2:55, WOLF MOON, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
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