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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 19 November 2011
Will Kauto Star be singing the blues?
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
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