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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 11 November 2011
Whip Crack Away!
I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.
There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.
Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.
The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.
Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.
For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
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