Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

THIS IS A BOOKIES ADVERT FREE ZONE

There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives over 30% of the stakes from your lost wagers.ising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday 11 November 2011

Whip Crack Away!

The 376th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.

There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.

Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.

The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.

Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.

For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.

Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Iain,

    Couldn't make much sense of the Blogger email subscription problem. I noticed one of the RT I made for yesterday's post has found its place on another website: http://paper.li/nycapper1/1316357530#!sports

    All good stuff.

    Have a good day,
    Jason

    ReplyDelete

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.