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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 9 November 2011
GOING WRONG another winner at 4/1
Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.
Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.
We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.
Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.
At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked
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