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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 13 November 2011
Fontwell hosts the Southern National
Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.
That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.
Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.
It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.
I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.
I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.
It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.
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