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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Forgive me Father
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.
My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.
Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
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