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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 25 October 2015
It seems to me we are witnessing a changing of the guard when it comes to trainers, and although both Nicholls and Henderson had winners yesterday, so did capable young names like Rebecca Curtis and Nick Skelton on Friday.
We have an extra hour this Sunday as the clocks went back overnight, and it gives us a little longer to look at the form for meetings at Aintree and Wincanton. There are a number of alert list horses running and we have an exciting day ahead.
At Aintree at 1:55pm, we have a 3-mile conditional jockeys handicap hurdle. Not my usual sort of race, but I like 3-mile hurdles as very few horses truly stay this sort of trip if they are run at a good gallop. Last year Carn Rock ran a good 4th off OR110, and that was off a break. He's had a pipe-opener recently, and could push the fav Sykes, who is only 6/4 for this with his stamina unproven.
Then, at 2:30pm, we have a veteran's handicap chase over 3m1f and Danimix will prove tough to beat if in the same form as he was 2-weeks ago. He's re-opposed by Benbens who is 11lb better-off, but Benbens would prefer soft ground. Lie Forrit won this race last year, but off a 20lb lower rating and I cannot see him winning this. Ely Brown hasn't completed a race in 20 months and is another who would prefer softer ground, if not heavy. Not so Maggio, who has not finished out of the 1st-3 in 4 races at 3-mile and who will handle the "good" ground. He's a LTO winner and is being aimed at the Grand National, but he's likely to go well here as his trainer will want to maintain his rating to guarantee he lines up next April. When he met Mwaleshi in January over 2m5f on level weights, Mwaleshi easily beat him, so you may be thinking that on 10lb better terms Mwaleshi should be well-in today - but Mwaleshi was at the limit of his stamina that day and this 3m1f trip will expose his stamina limitations. Any Currency has been racing on Cross-Country courses and cannot be expected to be up for this, and the trip is also too long for Russian Realm. MAGGIO could upset fav Danimix in his search for a hat-trick and 9/1 looks fair eachway value.
The feature race of the day is at 3:30pm and it's the Old Roan Chase over 2m4f. A limited handicap, this race will see the return of some excellent chasing talent, among them Johns Spirit (odds of 11/2) who seems to have been around for ever yet is still only an 8yo. Johns Spirit has been on my alert list for nearly 3 years now and has more than paid his way. He was only beaten a head in the "Paddy Power" handicap chase at Cheltenham last November off OR156, so on a mark of OR157 he's certainly capable of winning this if he's fit and well. Others on my alert list in this race are Buywise (11/2) and Sound Investment (9/1). Outside of these 3, the only other horse who may be capable of winning is Splash Of Ginge (10/1) who, on a going day is very decent. Sound Investment has been aimed at this race for a long time as he's been kept away from chasing since winning in February in order to protect his OR155 rating. He was given a hurdle race earlier this month so comes here race fit. I just feel that he'd prefer good-to-soft ground, but he wont be far away and will likely be aimed at the Ryanair Chase at the Festival next March. Buywise is very exciting as, with luck on his side, he'd have won at the Cheltenham Festival last March. As such he comes here only rated a 1lb higher on OR147, and, being proven on the ground and at the trip, he holds a great chance. He won on his seasonal debut last year so being fresh is no handicap. He was also in the "Paddy Power" last November and has 3-lengths to find to beat Johns Spirit based on that race, but this hold-up horse will not have to weave his way through as many horses in this and that may prove the difference. At the odds, Sound Investment at 9/1 (quarter-odds a place with Bet365), is probably the best value, but it would not surprise me to see Johns Spirit or Buywise win this either.
At Wincanton, there is a decent 3m2f class 3 handicap chase at 2:45pm which should go the 2/1 fav Cowards Close, last seen staying-on in the race won by Drop Out Joe. Cowards Close is on my alert list as he can win off this OR130 mark despite probably being a better horse on soft ground, and as the season progresses and we get softer ground we will see this horse come into his own, and I expect him to be a OR145+ chaser before the seasson ends. Another on my alert list in this race is Dont Do Mondays, but he's not shown in the past that he has the stamina for this sort of trip. So, the likely danger to the fav is According To Trev, who does stay 3m2f and also handles good ground, and has slipped to an interesting OR132 rating just 2lb above his last winning mark. His jumping can be error-prone, but a safe round will see him push the fav and at 6/1 he is an interesting eachway possibility in this 8-runner race (5th odds a place, 1,2,3).
I'm going to play safe and try and recoup some recent losses with an eachway wager on MAGGIO in the veterans chase whose odds of 9/1 look good value.
Aintree 2:30 MAGGIO, £5 eachway @ 9/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Hills and Ladbrokes all go 5th the odds a place 1,2,3)