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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 16 October 2015
Don't come knocking, the door is open
However, at Fakenham at 4:00pm there is an interesting 3-mile chase which provides us with an opportunity. Only 5-runners go to post, so it is likely to be a trappy affair, but the field is - in my opinion - split between 3 with little chance of success, and 2 with a high chance of success.
The 3 who I think have little chance are:-
Bucking The Trend - off the track since February 2014, but only a 7yo. He is likely to need the run today, as his trainer Tim Vaughan is struggling to hit form and winners are few and far between. Watch this horse as he is on an attractive mark when recovering his fitness and form.
Wiesentraum - small fields are his cup-of-tea, but he's lost form badly over the past 12-months and his run last month (the race won by Oscar Rock) gave little scope for a return to the winners enclosure today.
Kilbree Kid - has crept up the ratings to the point where he is now poorly handicapped and needing (in my opinion) respite from the handicapper. The trip and ground will suit him today, and he is a consistent sort who will likely give his running but, I fear, he wont be good enough.
This race is between Knock House and OPEN HEARTED.
Knock House is unproven at 3-mile - I don't consider beating 2 rivals at Huntingdon at odds of 1/2 to have been a severe test of his stamina - and his Cheltenham Festival 5th suggests that 21-furlong is his current limit.
OPEN HEARTED hasn't proven his stamina at 3-mile either, but he's won at over 2m6f over hurdles, and more importantly he's shown he's better than his OR138 rating in the past. He's a safe jumper of a fence and at the odds - he's currently 9/2 with 5/1 available occasionally - he's worth an eachway wager. I included him on my alert list after his latest run for Dan Skelton, who acquired him from Nicky Henderson in the summer, and I'm expecting an improved run from him today,
Fakenham 4:00 Open Hearted, £8 eachway AND £4 win @ 9/2 (BetVictor, William Hill, Ladbrokes who are BOG plus quarter-odds a place 1st & 2nd)
Total Staked = £20
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All the best from Wayward Lad.