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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 7 October 2015

Barry Geraghty makes rare mid-week visit to Ludlow

The jump season gathers pace, with a couple of interesting mid-week meetings at Ludlow and Towcester.  Tomorrow, we have meetings at Exeter and Worcester, and on Friday there is an interesting meeting at Newton Abbot.  As such, the opportunity to find a wager is growing, although the form for these early season meetings can be a bit sparse.

The Ludlow meeting has the best race of the day at 3:15pm, a Class 3 handicap chase over an extended 3m1f.  This race has gone to 2nd-season chasers for the past couple of seasons, and that’s probably the best place to look for the winner.  The early fav for this afternoon’s race is just such a horse, DREAMSOFTHEATRE was a novice chaser this time last year when he ran in this event, and was struggling to be consistent with his jumping.  This season, after being given a long break, he returned with a better display when winning at 3-mile at Bangor, and followed that up 10-days later with another win at Cartmel over the same trip as today. As the 3rd horse (btn less than ¼-length) went on to win convincingly NTO, I’d rate that win higher than the handicapper who has only put him up a 1lb to OR128.  Given he’s the only ride today for Barry Geraghty, I’m surprised he’s as long as 9/2 in the betting.

Is there anything that can beat him? The 2nd-fav Azure Fly is the only other 7yo in the race, and he doesn’t look like he has the stamina for this trip as his best form is short of 3-mile, but he is being supported in the betting, and is now the 7/2 fav.  Rio Milan is next in the betting, but although he loves Ludlow (2 wins from 4 runs) he’s not tested beyond 2m4f as a chaser, and couldn’t stay the trip as a hurdler. King Massini hasn’t won since he was a novice chaser in December 2013 but, if he can recapture that form, he’s thrown-in here off OR113 – it is a big ask tho’ of a horse who may have lost his love of the game.  Sybarite is an unusual one to consider.  He’s not run in a chase since March’12 - that was 3½ years ago - but has improved 20lbs as a hurdler in the intervening period.  He wasn’t a great novice, but he was highly tried so any faults were exposed. He could be interesting if he’s learned to jump a fence in the summer.  Best Boy Barney looks poorly handicapped now on OR130, and the 6yo Lemony Boy is just a novice chaser albeit a promising one – but he’s meeting experienced horses today.  Of more interest is Allthekingshorses who will strip fitter for his run last week, is one who stays this trip well and he loves “good” ground. He is a live eachway candidate at 14/1 in a race with a lot of horses holding question-marks.

The 3-mile Mares’ handicap hurdle at 3:50 could be another wagering opportunity, as there are not many horses capable of winning at this sort of trip over hurdles, if they go a decent pace.  Neither the fav Jean Fleming, nor the 2nd-fav Lily Waugh, have form at this sort of trip and look vulnerable to me.  Whereas Handmaid stays 3-mile and always runs a fair race, tho’ can look one-paced.  The 5yo Miss Serious has now won 3 of her 5 hurdle races and is proven at this trip and she looks possibly the best at the odds being 6/1. She also has an entry for Friday at Newton Abbot, but races here instead.

This looks an opportunity for an eachway double.

Ludlow 3:15 DREAMSOFTHEATRE, £4 eachway @ 9/2 (Available with Bet365, Bet Victor and others at 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Ludlow 3:50 MISS SERIOUS, £4 eachway @ 6/1 (Available with Bet365, Bet Victor and others at 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
AND: £2 eachway double on DREAMSOFTHEATRE and MISS SERIOUS

Total Staked = £20

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1 comment:

  1. The good start to the season continues with all 3 wagers returning a (small) profit.
    DREAMSOFTHEATRE was unlucky not to win having lost his chance crashing thru' the final fence, but ran on to be 2nd at an SP of 7/1.
    There was a gamble on MISS SERIOUS who started the 9/2 fav, but we were on at 6/1 (advised at 10:30am).and she stayed on well to be 3rd.
    To advised stakes, the returns were:-
    DREAMSOFTHEATRE - £9.60 (staked £8.00)
    MISS SERIOUS - £8.80 (staked £8.00)
    EW Double - £10.56 (staked £4.00)
    Profit on the day = £8.96 on £20 staked