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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 17 October 2015
Champions Day at Ascot, but first...
As I wrote on the blog yesterday when assessing the race, there were only two horses in it and it was very difficult to split them on known form. So, with one offered at "evens" and the other at 9/2 it was a no-brainer as to which horse was the best value - it was like tossing a coin and being offered "evens" about heads and 9/2 about tails. Watching the race, it was a true test and I'm keeping Open Hearted on my alert list, and adding Knock House as well, as this was a tremendous effort from the 6yo having his debut for the season.
That makes 4 winners from 9 selections this season for the blog. I will try and keep this good run going, but it will not be easy.
Apart from the Champions Day meeting on the flat at Ascot, we have 3 jump meetings today at Ffos Las, Stratford and Market Rasen. I'm sticking to my tried & trusted methods of winner finding, relying on my alert list when possible, and sticking to better quality races when not; but there is not much value on my radar at the 3 meetings this afternoon.
The first wager of the jumps season was on Cloudy Bob, and he ran a solid 3rd at Worcester over 2m4f on unsuitable "good" ground. He is out again at Market Rasen, but over 3-mile today, and again it is "good" ground. He doesn't have the stamina for 3-miles, but he does like this track as his last win was here over 2m5f on soft ground. After that win he was rated OR128 and now he's slipped to OR118, so he is very well handicapped and, being just an 8yo, time has not caught him up yet. So, in my book, he's a winner waiting to happen when he gets the right conditions - unfortunately, that isn't today. He may sneak 3rd place being on such a lenient mark, but I would bet against that and for those of you who are more adventurous a "place-lay" on the exchanges could prove profitable.
I've looked at the Stratford 2:55pm race which is a 2m4f handicap chase, but there are too many "dodge-pots" in this race for me, and anyone of the field could win it if they were in the mood.
So, no selection today but I'm sure readers who have been about these past couple of weeks won't be complaining. I will take a look at Sunday's jump racing later this afternoon and see if there is an opportunity for tomorrow.