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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 2 October 2015

Battalion to win the match

Not the best of meetings at Fontwell this afternoon, and winner finding could prove tricky.  I was hoping that some of the races would be more competitive, but it seems that the best approach (if you are considering having a wager) is assessing whether the fav for each race is beatable or not, and taking it from there.
There are no alert list runners out today, but it looks like there will be a couple running over the weekend.
Back to Fontwell, and the opening juvenile maiden hurdle looks wide open, and the following handicap chase has been reduced to just 3 runners. However, the Class 3 handicap hurdle at 3:15pm looks more interesting. The race-fav is Shear Rock, and he's running off OR115 which is 7lb higher than his rating LTO when he won at Market Rasen in June. I think he's vulnerable off this revised rating as he looked at the extreme of his ability when he won that race, and he only won that race by a "neck". I'm more interested in another in this race, Royal Battalion sent here by local trainer Gary Moore.
If you want an example of how the finger of fate can effect horseracing, then Royal Battalion is perfect. His dam, Yummy Mummy, is a full sister to multiple Group 1 winner Fame And Glory, and his half-sister is none-other than multiple Group 1 winning 3yo filly Legatissimo.  As a yearling, Legatissimo sold for £350,000, and her half-brother Royal Battalion sold for £575,000 - yet, one is winning Group 1 races on the flat, and the other is contesting a handicap hurdle at Fontwell.
I think we will see significant improvement from Royal Battalion as a hurdler as he's already shown that he's capable of jumping a hurdle and winning this summer. The soft ground, and having just 2 rivals did for him in his last race in August, but today's ground and opposition should keep his mind on the job.
Disputed spent the summer with Gordon Elliot in Ireland, running 9 times for him without winning - and if he couldn't win with the horse, then I doubt Chris Gordon is going to find much improvement with him, and he looks highly rated on OR119. Gordon also runs Superciliary but that horse has been off the track some time and would probably prefer softer ground than today. Finally, Lyssio looks outclassed.
I was going to take a look at the handicap chase at 3:50pm,  but that race looks a bit tight. There is not much between Chris Pea Green, Workbench or Purple N Gold.. Workbench won this race last season (it was the last race he won) and looked a better horse afterwards when trying trips over 2m4f. His form hasn't looked good enough this summer; so perhaps the likely winner will be either of the other two heading the market. But it looks a race that none can be truly discounted from, so I'm passing it over.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, I'm fairly confidant we should have a wager tomorrow.

So then - the 3:15pm handicap hurdle at Fontwell today,  Do we have a wager? As I think the race is just about a "match" between Royal Battalion and Shear Rock, and there isn't much to seperate them on known form at this sort of trip, but ROYAL BATTALION has scope for further improvement (he is, after all, just a 4yo), at the odds I have to go with ROYAL BATTALION on whom you can obtain 11/4 generally, whereas Shear Rock is at odds-on generally at 10/11.

Fontwell 3:15 ROYAL BATTALION, £10 win @ 11/4 (available generally)

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