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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 28 October 2015
Patience is not just a virtue, it's a signpost to profit
Unless you have a significant edge in the form of stable information (which I do not subscribe to) then - in my opinion - it is very tricky, if not impossible, to make regular profits on racing at Class 4 or lower.
Sometimes I find a horse, especially from an unfashionable stable, that is rated OR90-110 and on the upgrade, capable of perhaps reaching OR135+ with good handling and a slice of luck, but they don't come around often, I've a couple like that on my alert list and I'm waiting for the right opportunity to come about in which to wager on.
As such, I'm not tempted by the meeting at Fakenham today, and it is likely that I will wait until Thursday (and the meetings at Sedgefield and Stratford) before considering my next wager. The class 3 handicap chase at Stratford over 2m3f looks very interesting, as we could see the return to the track of talented 3-mile novice hurdler African Gold.
On Friday, the meeting at Uttoxeter does not look special, but Wetherby on the same day has a couple of good races including a Class 1 Listed chase over 2m3f.
However, it is Saturday that holds the feature race of the week - the Charlie Hall Chase. The race pulls together some of the best chasing talent seen last season. Can Grand National winner Many Clouds defy top-weight? Will Irish Cavalier continue his rapid progress? Can Holywell reproduce his form of the Spring? Can Cue Card recover his form of 2013, and his win in the Betfair Chase?
Looking at the betting for the race, the antepost fav is Dynaste, who has been given a tremendous chance by the race conditions as (along with Cue Card and Ballynagour) he's not won a Class 3 (or better) chase since the cut-off of the 30th September 2014. Even so, Dynaste was running some tremendous races last season: 3rd in the Betfair Chase; 2nd in the King George and then a disappointing 3rd in the Betbright Chase in January. There is no ground worry, and the trip is perfect; the only doubt is the recent form of his trainer as David Pipe has been struggling to find the winners' enclosure in October. Ignore the recent run in France by Dynaste, as the ground was described as very soft, and soft/heavy ground is very unsuitable for Dynaste.
Cue Card has not run well on his seasonal debut for the past two seasons, and last season he was running about 15-20lb below his best. As such, I do not think he should be the 2nd-fav as he'll need to be in top-form to take this.
Holywell would be the value in the race at 7/1 with Paddy Power, but he's also been a notorious slow starter when making his seasonal debut for the past few seasons. However, his trainer Jonjo O'Neill has started very well this season.
Menorah has only won once beyond 2m6f (from 8 attempts) and that was when winning this race last season - when he beat a poor field. He went on to prove the form NTO when 2nd in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, and the "good" ground will be in his favour; but I feel this horse (who will turn 11yo on 1st Jan) has had his day in the sun.
Many Clouds won the Grand National last April looking like he was still an improving horse, and if the race hasn't taken too much out of him, he could be in the mix here even with 11st 10lb. I just feel he'll be up against it giving 10lb to the likes of Dynaste and Cue Card. That, and the "good" ground will be against him.
Ballynagour is an odd one, as he's not looked capable of mixing with this grade till going down by just a "head" at Aintree last April in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl. It may be that he just found his perfect conditions that day, and he was the only horse that came into the race "fresh" as he hadn't run since pulling-up in the 'Hennessy' last November. That said, if he runs to 160+ then off just 11st he will be tough to beat, but he's another trained by David Pipe.
Anything sent by Paul Nicholls needs serious consideration, and he sends two - Rocky Creek and Sam Winner. I like Rocky Creek as he's a very consistent performer who always tries his best. Unfortunately he seems to have plateaued at about 157-158, but what is in his favour is that he has run very well on his seasonal debut (2nd in the Hennessy in 2013, and 2nd in the Grade 1 Champion Chase in Ireland last year). Sam Winner took a 4-runner Class 1 chase at Aintree in December last year, hence his 10lb penalty, which looks to have scuppered his chance, as he's another that can run well on his seasonal debut.
The last horse with the potential to win this race is Irish Cavalier, sent by Rebecca Curtis. Already a winner this season, and looking an improved horse in the process, he needs to find another 10lb at least to win this off 11st 6lb. However, I reckon he will go well and he's one for Cheltenham next March. Curtis also has The Romford Pele entered, but this horse will need mud and a large dose of good fortune to bring him into contention.
Looking at the antepost betting, the 5/1 offered by the race sponsor Bet365 about Dynaste seems good value, as I think he'll start the 7/2 fav if the ground remains "good", and he may start even shorter odds than that. Cue Card will not be far away, but his lack of "zip" last season suggests he's going to be placed at best. I think with 11st 10lb, Many Clouds will find more than 3 of these too good for him and at 5th odds a place 1,2,3 his current best odds of 6/1 do not represent value. If you are looking for an eachway wager, then I think the 12/1 offered about Rocky Creek looks the best value available, though he's unlikely to win if they all finish the race.
I've taken the 5/1 about Dynaste.
Wetherby 31st October 2015
Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase: DYNASTE, £10 win @ 5/1 with Bet365