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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Wednesday, 21 October 2015
Quiet day today, but busy weekend beckons
After a few quiet days, we have couple of interesting meetings today at Fontwell and Worcester.
I like Fontwell - and not just because it is a local track to me here in Brighton – as it gives the chasers a fair test. You can see the trainers like it too, as the novice chase over 2m3f at 3:00pm today has been won by some decent chasers in the past 5 years, such as Fruity O’Rooney, Virak, and Black Thunder. Paul Nicholls has won this for the past couple of seasons, and his entry Calipto will be hard to beat – hence he is odds-on at 4/7.
The 2m5f Class 3 handicap hurdle at 3:35pm could be a wagering opportunity, as Charlie Longsdon’s entry Promanco looks leniently treated on OR121 and, with his rider claiming 7lb, he could be tough to beat. The 2nd-fav Mercers Court didn’t beat much LTO when winning here over 2m3f, and while the next in the market Taradrewe comes here on a hat-trick, her revised rating of OR127 could well be her undoing. The top-weight Drum Valley has been off the track for 319-days and may well need the run, but his rating of OR132 is workable especially as he has a 10lb claimer riding. He certainly won’t lack stamina for this trip as he was running consistently at 2m6f to 3-mile in 2014 at Class 2. I’m a bit worried about the ability of Promanco’s rider – amateur rider Mr Sam Painting – and this isn’t reflected in the odds available as I’m looking for 4/1 or longer.
Worcester opens with a Class 4 handicap chase over 2m7f, which hangs around whether the 10yo Playing The Field retains his ability after being off the track for 516-days. Personally, I doubt it, but there isn’t an obvious candidate to beat him. That race is followed by a novice handicap chase over 2m7f at 2:15pm, in which the fav Skylander will prove hard to beat. The 2nd-fav Relentless Dreamer has lots more experience over fences, but appears to have hit a plateau in his development. I have a alert list runner in this race in Upswing, who could prove (in time) to be a better chaser than hurdler, but he looks up against it in this race.
This could be a day for a multiple wager on some short-priced runners, and the next on the card at Worcester at 2:50pm holds another potential opportunity in a race which is similar to the one last Friday. There are 5 runners of which 3 are very unlikely to be win and, while the other 2 are closely matched, one comes into the race in good form – Days Ahead. This horse finally got his act together LTO at Newton Abbot over an extended 2-mile, and his stamina and experience should put the jumping of the 2nd-fav the 4yo All Together, under pressure.
I’m not offering an advised wager today, but I will be having a small personal wager on Promanco, Skylander and Days Ahead in doubles and a treble. There is plenty of good jump racing to come this week, with meetings at Ludlow and Carlisle tomorrow, Cheltenham on Friday and Saturday, and Aintree on Sunday, as well as other meetings at Kelso and Wincanton. So there is no need to hurry into wagers.
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