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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 22 October 2015

Dodging bullets!

No selections posted yesterday, and it was a good job as we dodged a bullet or two!

Promanco suffered from a poor ride at Fontwell, and tho' he wouldn't have won his race he probably would have been 2nd. He could be worth another chance if turning out again soon. The race winner Drum Valley ran a cracker under 10lb-claimer Ben Ffrench Davis, making-all and staying-on strongly. As I wrote yesterday, he didn't lack stamina and the only real doubt was whether he'd be race-fit off a 319-day lay-off - this is the sort of thing that can only be assessed in the paddock before the race.  Not being at the track - or having pictures relayed from the paddock by the tv companies - does put the punter at a disadvantage and is one of the items that you have to build in to your risk assessment of the race.

Even so, Drum Valley is going onto my alert list as he holds a chase rating of OR124 (he won this hurdle off OR132) and he must surely be able to take advantage of his chase rating.

At Worcester, my assessment of the opening race fav Playing The Field was spot-on as the 10yo struggled to make an impression despite being the 3/1 fav. It was the next race on the card that took the wind out of my sails,  I thought that the race-fav Skylander was well ahead of his OR128 rating, but his stamina was severely tested at this 2m7f trip and on reflection his best trip as a chaser is 2m4f. The ground being good-to-soft was not a problem as he's won on soft ground as a hurdler twice, and a drop in trip should see him back in the winners enclosure. Unfortunately, I overlooked one from my alert list in this race in Upswing - a horse who'd shown himself to be a capable 3-mile hurdler on soft/heavy ground but had yet to demonstrate similar ability as a novice chaser. There must have been plenty of stable support for the horse as the morning odds of 7/1 were soon gone and an SP of 9/2 was returned. This was a missed opportunity, but Upswing is the sort of horse Jonjo O'Neill can run up a sequence with as he will improve on softer ground and should stay another 2 or 3 furlongs.

The only other horse I considered yesterday, Days Ahead in the 2-mile Class 4 handicap chase, ran a stinker and was reported by his trainer to have suffered breathing problems and lost a hind shoe. All-in-all, this was a good reminder to stick to better quality racing involving better quality, proven horses.

There are 3 meetings today at Carlisle, Ludlow and Southwell, and these midweek meetings can throw-up some decent racing at this stage of the season as trainers endeavour to get their horses race-fit. The 2-mile "Beginners' Chase" at Carlisle at 2:50pm has been won by some decent horses in its short 4-year history and I will be watching this race with interest. Yorkshire trainer Sue Smith does well with her horses when they go chasing and I'm expecting a big run from Special Wells on his chase debut.

There is nothing of interest to me at Southwell.
Ludlow is one of my favourite courses and, being right-handed, it has a fair share of course specialists. The 3-mile Class 4 handicap chase at 4:15 has only 5-runners (Kasbadali is a non-runner) but we could have a wagering opportunity. Current fav is Butlergrove King who won on his debut for his trainer earlier this month over 2m4f, but has not looked a 3-miler on his attempts a the trip earlier this year. Buck Mulligan has won twice at 3-mile; once as a hurdler and once on his chase debut here when virtually gifted the race. I know him from old, and he's not got much in the tank beyond 2m5f. Jayandbee is a C&D winner (3m1f actually) but was off the track for 16 months through injury before returning in September. He's been givena chance by the handicapper if he's returning to form as he's run well off OR111 and is on OR103 today.  As for Victor Leudorum, he's capable of winning this on his best form, but he appears to have lost his way completely. That leaves Dabinett Moon who has only had 2 runs under rules as he's been plying his trade on the point-to-point field. However, he is a full brother to his stable-mate Strongbows Legend who was rated OR130 at his peak. There is not much scope in the betting for him, and he's 100/30.

I started off writing this assessment of the 4:15 at Ludlow thinking Dabinett Moon was the likely selection but, on reflection, JAYANDBEE does not have to find much on his previous run to take this weak race, and his prominent running style should ensure he's given every chance. Odds of 9/2 look fair given the dubious form-lines of his 4 rivals and he's the wager.  I know it goes against what I've written earlier in the blog about sticking to better quality racing, but this is a very weak race which won't take much winning. That, and I consider Jayandbee should be 9/4 for this race and not 9/2.

Selection
Ludlow 4:15, JAYANDBEE, £10 win @ 9/2 (available with Coral and Betfred)

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