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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Monday, 26 October 2015
Post-weekend review - 24th/25th October
Confidence is a major part of playing the horses.
When you have confidence you back your judgement with greater conviction, and when confidence is lacking you see issues and give them greater importance than they are worth. I just hope some of those who read the blog saw the worth of the narrative that I wrote and had more courage than me.
In hindsight, the Sunday meeting at Aintree should have been a tremendously successful one, but as I'd wagered on 3 consecutive losers last week (altho', to be fair, Turn Over Sivola ran a cracker on Saturday and possibly just lacked race fitness) my conscience was telling me to play safe.
Hence, despite strongly considering Benbens in the "Veterans" handicap chase, I put too much emphasis on the ground conditions and overlooked him for the "safe" wager on Maggio, who ran well, but never looked like winning, to be 3rd.
Benbens was on my alert list last season after winning 2 of his 2st-3 chase races in the Spring of 2014, but he's failed to visit the winners enclosure since - until yesterday - and I doubt he'll be able to follow-up.
However, worse was to follow, for with the feature race, the Old Roan handicap Chase, my form assessment was virtually spot-on - yet I did not advise a wager!
I wrote that the race looked to be between 3 horses: Sound Investment (who won), Buywise (3rd) and Johns Spirit (pulled-up after being badly hampered). It was a case of what if, as I narrowed down Sound Investment to be the best value in the race at morning odds of 9/1, and he indeed ran a cracker. As the trainer's rep confirmed after the race, this race had been the plan for a long time - possibly since he was put away before the Cheltenham Festival after winning at Newbury in February. This was a career-best effort and the 7yo could find another 7-10lb. As such, he's one to follow for the rest of the season at trips between 20f - 22f.
Johns Spirit was running well until impeded by the fatally injured Rajdhani Express, and was unable to recover the lost ground. This 2m4f trip is his best, and these top handicaps are where he'll ply his trade as he's about 7lb short of top class.
Buywise, despite being 3rd, was a little disappointing, and was probably dropped-out too much, and brought back into the race too late to win. The thought is he will step-up in trip to 3-mile but, so far, he's not shown the stamina for 3-mile and maybe best at 2m6f instead.
The revelation of the race was the performance of 12yo Wishfull Thinking who was on my alert list as a 2nd-season chaser when I expected him to progress to be a 170+ chaser, but he's not gone better the 162-164. He does, however, love this Aintree circuit and if he were mine I'd not run him anywhere else this season.
At Wincanton, Cowards Close ran poorly and was pulled-up despite being the 7/4 fav. As I wrote in the blog appraisal of the race yesterday, he will be a much better horse on soft ground and he's not one to write off yet. The ground was too quick for him and though he's won before on "good" ground, he only beat 3 horses when winning on it as a novice, and the best of those is now rated OR123 and he was conceding Cowards Close 7lb. If he goes to Cheltenham for the 3m2f chase there in December in which he ran 3rd last year - and the word "soft" is in the going description - we will see a different horse.
No selections advised today, but I am feeling more confident now than I was yesterday morning, as I know my methods work and work well.