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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 1 October 2015

Looking forward to the weekend and the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

The jumps season is slowing warming up.
It is a period when you need to be patient and wait for your reward.
There is an interesting 2-day meeting at Fontwell over Friday and Saturday, and we should be able to find a wager on Saturday when one from my alert list runs there.
Sunday, along with the Prix De L’arc de Triomphe being staged at Langchamp, also has three good jump race meetings at Uttoxeter, Huntingdon and Kelso. Again, we should be presented with a wagering opportunity at one of these meetings, and I’m pretty sure which horse I’ll be recommending, so long as the odds available are value.
There’s plenty of opportunity waiting for us, we just have to be a bit patient.

One of my personal disappointments at the moment, is the absence of the Nick Mordin column from the RP Weekender. Whether you love him or hate him, Mordin always manages to provide a thoughtful alternative look at the weeks racing. The Weekender has expanded the column inches of “Pricewise” Tom Segal, but he is not in the same league.  I’m already getting fed-up with Segal’s whine about not finding winners of the major handicaps on the flat. Perhaps instead of relying on getting the nod from some of Britains best trainers, he should start reading the formbook instead.

The focus of the racing world will be on Longchamp this Sunday afternoon, where TREVE attempts to win the race for the 3rd time.  She has shown that her ability has not diminished this season, having won all 3 starts and confirming her superiority over last year’s “Arc” runner-up, Flintshire.  Thing is, my opinion is that this year we have a 3yo colt in the race who is perhaps a cut-above the ordinary – GOLDEN HORN.  Without a doubt, were it not for a bit of poor tactical riding by Frankie Dettori at York, GOLDEN HORN would be going into Sunday’s race unbeaten.  The ground being Good-to-Soft is a slight worry, but only slight as a horse of this class should be able to act on virtually any type of ground.  A lot could depend on the draw, though when we know what the draw is I can’t really see it affecting the odds being offered for the race.  That said, I just can’t’ consider TREVE as value at just “evens” – and she’s odds-on with a few bookies.
GOLDEN HORN at 9/2 is more interesting (available with Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral) but, along with the ground worry, he’s also had a long season and it will all depend on how he travels through the race.
At this moment, if I was going to have a wager, I think I’d have to go for a horse that is relatively unexposed yet has shown enough to warrant a place in the race and comes into the weekend fresh is the Irish-trained FREE EAGLE. Although this will be the first time the horse has tackled 1m4f being sired by High Chaparral the trip should not prove a problem. From his debut as a 2yo over a mile at Leopardstown, he has looked a seriously high-class horse. He missed most of his 3yo season but in both his runs this season he’s looked a more than capable Group 1 horse.  Available at 16/1 generally, it is not difficult to see him finding another 5lb or more on Sunday and being right there in the mix.
No wager recommended, as this is a jump racing blog, but I would not put anyone off an eachway wager on FREE EAGLE for the Arc.

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1 comment:

  1. Bang on re Tom Segal in The Weekender! Rather than whinge, he should be using the time that 99% of other punters do not have, to investigate new winner finding angles such as pace analysis, breeding, paddock analysis or sectional time analysis (which Mordin was banging on about 10 years ago to my knowledge).