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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 28 January 2011
The start of a big weekend
Fontwell opens with a beginner’s chase of 5 runners for horses yet to win a chase. Paul Nicholls sends Definity which is odds-on, but the enigmatic STRAW BEAR is also entered. This grade 1 hurdler is having his 7th chase race today, but what makes him interesting is that AP McCoy renews his association with the horse. He’s been in the saddle whenever the horse has done well – including when he won the Christmas hurdle in 2007 which was the last time the horse won. If anyone can win on STRAW BEAR, McCoy can and the morning odds of 11/4 look fair. There’s nothing else that jumps out from the card.
At Doncaster, the class 3 handicap chase at 3:40 could provide the day’s wager. It is over the odd trip of 2m3f and there is one horse in the race that will suit this sort of trip – Russian Flag. His last run was a stinker, but there were only 4 runners in the race and it was won by Matuhi off OR125 (now 10lb higher on OR135) so I can forgive him that run as before that his form was progressing well. Russian Flag does not stay a yard further than 2m3f (and this trip may be stretching his stamina) and the going is also probably a bit quick for him (needs the word “soft” in the going description), but he has claimer Alex Mirriam in the saddle and he seems to get the best from him. He was the horse that my heart wanted to wager on but, with questions over going and trip and form, the fav SAGALYRIQUE, who would prefer 21f-plus, looks a better wager at 100/30. It was a bit round the houses way of going about things, but the others look more like 2-milers and have bigger questions to answer than the fav who won LTO.
Doncaster 3:40 SAGALYRIQUE, 1pt win @ 100/30 (Stan James)
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