Not a great day for the blog yesterday, despite all 3 selections running well. Perhaps we were a little unlucky as had I suggested an eachway “Trixie” (that is, 3 doubles and a treble covering all 3 selections in 4 bets) to a ½pt, then the return would have been over 17pts for a total stake of 4pts, meaning a profit of over 13pts. So, as you can imagine, I am a bit miffed.
A couple from my personal HTF list did not run well at all. MAGIC CITY may well have met a very decent filly in MISS WORK OF ART as she was the better horse on the day – no excuses. The time was not spectacular tho’. Prior to the race, I thought HEZMAH would slay the doubts over her ability to stay a mile, but she didn’t and found zip when asked inside the 2f marker. MADANY ran well considering the going was not in her favour. Why she was subject of a market move from 5/1 in to 3/1 is beyond me. She is not up to this standard (Listed) of race, but a drop back to a class 2 handicap on good-to-soft may see her in the winner’s enclosure.
Of my selections; CRITICAL MOMENT was outpaced mid-race and may well have needed the run. Even so, he’s not Group 1 potential on this form, despite his entries this summer. I thought AKMAL ran a great race and 2f-out I thought he’d go on and win it. However, ASKAR TAU returned to the form of 2009 when he won the Doncaster Cup beating subsequent Cesarewitch winner Darley Sun (gave him 16lb that day). He never got the fast ground he loves in 5 subsequent races, but clearly improved for his seasonal debut at Nottingham on 6th April over an inadequate trip (14f). Given the question marks over the markets leaders ability to stay the trip (Rite Of Passage excluded, but will he run?) the antepost odds of 20/1 (Hills & Chandlers) for the Ascot Gold Cup looks very inviting, as ASKAR TAU will have his going then and is now proven at the track and we know he stays well beyond 2-mile. ANTIGUA SUNRISE was running like a winner 2f-out but unfortunately her jockey (7lb claimer George Chaloner) tried to find a way thru’ on the rails and there was none. Pulled-out to go round, the jockey allowed the horse to wander and lost momentum, but when he got her balance back she ran on well. That’s the risk you take with ‘claimers’. Even so, I’ll take comfort from the fact that ANTIGUA SUNRISE looks on a decent mark of OR80 and if kept to 10f she’ll recoup the loss.
Not much racing to write home about today, but the Suroor/Dettori partnership make a rare visit to Bath. They feature on SAHAFH in the 2:40 class 5 ‘stakes’ race for 3yo’s over a mile. When last seen, SAHAFH ran a stinker, but her run at Kempton on the AW last July was a decent effort when 2nd over 7f. She led briefly inside the final furlong that day and the winner is now rated OR95. Suroor is making his usual slow start to the season, but 5 of his 6 winners at Bath (last 5 seasons) have come from just his 3yo’s of which he’s sent 10 – that’s a 50% strike-rate. If the horse wasn’t worth persevering with, the Godolphin would have sold it off, so 4/1 looks fair as a speculative punt. I’ll give the meeting at Brighton a miss (it’s not one of my favourite tracks).
At Perth, it’s the 2nd day of their Festival and Tom George will try and follow-up his winner yesterday with his only runner today, Lexicon Lad; but it’s a leap of faith as he’s not won a race before and he’s untried beyond 2m5f. I’m more interested in Nicky Richards as he’s sent 2, but one is a no-hoper, which leaves PREMIER DANE. He’s won twice at Perth back in 2008, then had a short break before being outclassed in a couple of hot novice chases in early 2009. Since then he’s been hurdling, but returned to chasing with his run LTO at Ayr. He ran a cracker in that race over 2m4f and he’s been dropped 2lb to OR118. What I can’t understand is why Safari Adventures is 7/1 for this as good going and 2m4f are his perfect conditions. This going will be too quick for Storymaker, and I am happy to oppose the fav in this as he’s been raised 18lb for his win LTO.
I’ll give the Hereford meeting a miss.
Do I have a selection for today? No, is the answer. If you look to the left of the screen you will see I’ve added a new page called 2011 – Flat Racing Notebook. From now on (till Arc de Triomphe day in October) the blog will be focussing on Flat Racing selections only. I’ll be aiming at finding well-handicapped or under-rated horses and following them when they next run. Not all will be included in the “Notebook”, as otherwise it may become too large. I’m working on that one – what I may do is have just a list of names with dates of blog-pages were you can find the write-ups. Whatever, I am trying to cut down on the time spent writing the blog and put more time into form-study.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tough luck yesterday Wayward Lad. Nevertheless your blog is always an interesting read. I'll take a look at your notebook over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteOne final thing, I'm putting together a list of trainers that I'll pay special attention to this flat season. Those that do well but go slightly under the radar. If you don't mind I'll post them in a comment and you may have some thoughts on them or others you keep a close eye on?
That will be great Westhill, I'll give the matter some thought and will make it the focus of a blog page.
ReplyDeleteHi Wayward Lad,
ReplyDeleteAs promised.... some trainers I’ve identified with a good strike rate and decent numbers of winners last season. I’ve also listed a few who I feel didn’t do well last season but the early signs this season are that they may be worth keeping an eye out for.
I then delved into the RP 5 year stats to identify some profitable angles. The only proviso I’d make is that the profits make have come at the start of the 5 years and the last couple may have been drier. I’ll be looking into this angle further. I don’t think there’s anything overly scientific in my analysis. My thinking being that winners breed confidence both for myself as a backer and the yard when it's sends it's horses to the races. I’m a firm believer that trainers are creatures of habit.
Here’s the list in no particular order:
R Varian – 2010 Flat turf Strike rate = 23% (M Jarvis in this case) – Look out for fancied maiden runners and 3yo improvers thru handicaps into pattern races. A classic yard that typically knows what their horses are capable of and place them to best advantage.
M Al Zarooni – 15% - potential value as seen as 2nd string trainer, again look to maiden runners and 3yo improvers
R Beckett – 16% - His welsh raiders have a good SR and are profitable.
A Swinbank – 15% - 2yos profitable, Look to southern raiders, runners over 1m+, ridden by F Tylicki
R Charlton – 21% - Look to horses 4yo+ that he keeps in training, especially in good class handicaps
M Tregoning – 10% - I feel he’ll do better in 2011. 100% SR in sellers, seems to like sending horses to Yarmouth/Folkestone
D O’Meara – 17% - Trainer on the up – look to his handicappers where conditions are right. J Fanning does well for the yard.
O Pears – 12% - Similar to O’Meara – on the way up. Look to see if money down with either McHugh/Fallon riding. Good record in sellers.
Ed McMahon – 18% - Good record in claimers and with 2yos. Got exceptional SR’s at certain courses.
S Dow – 19% - Look out if Callan/Queally on, or his Bath raiders.
A Whillans – 16% - Look out for runners at Musselburgh or if he sends a well handicapped one south to Yorkshire.
E Tuer – 18% - Look at runners at Ayr, Carlisle & Ripon. Hanagan and Brotherton do well for him.
P Cole – 9% - like Tregoning I feel I’ll do better this year. Look out for anything he sends to the Northern tracks.
W Haggas – 16% - 5-6f horses have a good SR for him. Look out if R Moore is riding for him.
H Morrison – 12% - does well at Brighton and Folkestone, and in claimers. Look out for any 2yos being backed.
This exercise has been useful for me, especially at this stage of the season.
Your feedback/additional comments most welcome, Thxs.
Wow! That'll give me something to think about this weekend. If you want to contact me directly, it's easiest via twitter. My id there is @wayward_lad
ReplyDelete