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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 27 April 2011
John Dunlop to maintain good form
The Ascot meeting looks very attractive and, from my personal horse alert list (operated from www.easyodds.com) I’ve been advised by email of the following from my list that I’ve made a note of:-
Ascot 2:00 – MAGIC CITY; recorded an impressive speed-rating of 93 on his 2yo debut in race that has been won previously by Group winning horses, and he was a wide-margin winner too.
Ascot 2:30 – HEZMAH; won her debut as 3yo, having led 2f-out, and looks a smart prospect. She’s entered for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. As such, she should stay this mile today, is proven on the going, and is race-fit with no question marks over her ability.
Ascot 4:15 – MADANY; was hampered LTO (lost 2-lengths) but rallied well. May well be a better horse on going with a bit of “give”, rather than GF. Even so, looks much better than OR90. Has two half-sisters rated OR100+, including Dolled Up who won a Group 3 in France as a 2yo, but did not train on as a 3yo.
Of those 3 above, MAGIC CITY looks a shoo-in and is priced accordingly at very short odds. HEZMAH also should win, but given the competitive nature of the race, I’d want longer odds than the 2/1 on offer as I write. With 3 other unbeaten horses, and Byrony having won 4 of her last 5 starts, I’d be looking for longer than 3/1 and wouldn’t be tempted at less than 100/30.
MADANY looks to be out of her depth in this race which should be dominated by Libranno (my idea of the winner) and Margot Did.
The Paradise Stakes at 3:05 over a mile looks to revolve around Sir Michael Stoute’s Zacinto, but this race is very competitive and Zacinto will need to be at the top of his game to win this. I’d be looking to oppose him, and CRITICAL MOMENT who never stopped improving last season, gets the nod. He doesn’t get a yard further than a mile (so ignore his last run over 1m1f at York) but loves to run on Good-to-Firm going. He will need to find a bit more from last season, but he’s entered for the Group 1 races the Lockinge and the Queen Anne, as well as the Prince of Wales (the latter two at Royal Ascot) so clearly connections have high hopes.
In the Ascot 3:40, AKMAL was the 9/2 fav for this race last year, but the going (good) was not in his favour as he is at his best on good-to-firm (8 runs, 4 wins, 3 places). He usually needs a run, and his performance LTO on 6th April was better than his run prior to this race last year. The fav Free Agent is not proven at this trip, plugging-on in the Goodwood Cup, and running 2nd at Ascot last September in a slow run affair over 2-mile. AKMAL’s trainer John Dunlop is being sparing with his entries at the moment and clearly is only sending horses out that he thinks have a decent chance. At 8/1 (available generally) and 9/1 with Stan James, he looks decent value.
At Pontefract in the 4:05, last year’s winner ANTIGUA SUNRISE has a lot in her favour. She comes into the race on a fair rating and has a decent draw, and also has her favoured going, good-to-firm. A winner over 12f, she has no stamina doubts and her 7lb claimer jockey is a decent rider. This race revolves around the fav Hawaafez, but I think that 3yo still has it to prove. Odds of 8/1 on ANTIGUA SUNRISE look value.
Ascot 3:05, CRITICAL MOMENT, ½pt win @ 7/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:40, AKMAL, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Stan James)
Pontefract 4:05, ANTIGUA SUNRISE, ½pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked
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