The 352nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday.
There is just the one jumps meeting today at Huntingdon, and it's an interesting one too, and not just as it's the first jumps meeting using the new "whip" rules. The opening race is a brain teaser as both Phil Hobbs - Serious Choice - and Ferdy Murphy - Capricornus - have good strikerates at the Cambridgeshire track. Cumbrian trainer Nicky Richards usually does not travel well with horses sent far from home base, but he's won 2 from 6 here (both were chases) and he has the 3/1 fav Parc Des Princes. Those odds look fair about the fav and he would be the one I would be on for small money.
There has been a bit of money for Sambelucky probably on-account of trainer Keith Reveley having a good strike-rate here. However, I prefer WALLS WAY who was beaten by a good one LTO. Not a horse to take a short price on, odds of 7/2 are fair.
The 2m4f & 110yards trip is a step into the unknown for all the novice hurdlers in the 3:20. Of the field, I made a note of TROVARE when he won LTO and he should stay this trip.
When I woke this morning, I was going to oppose SPOCK in the 3:50 as I thought, being from the Paul Nicholls stable, he's be 7/4 or shorter. However, he is 3/1 with Vic Chandler and you cannot really oppose a chaser from the Nicholls stable in October. It is debateable whether Ostland can give him 14lbs. Firm Order races off his hurdle rating of OR122 yet this is his chase debut. Points Of View should stay 3-mile and he looked progressive earlier this summer (was outclassed LTO). For me, it is Peter Bowen's only runner NATURAL ACTION who fell LTO at the final fence. Bowen makes the long 241 mile trip here for this and the trip and going should suit this one. Odds of 11/2 available generally, look more than fair.
Not many horses stay 3-mile plus and so races like the 4:20 over 3m2f can sometime present easy pickings. This race tho' looks too tough to call and should fall to one of the market leaders of Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy. Given the odds, Winter Alchemy at 13/2 (Vic Chandler and Stan James) looks the most value.
Nothing jumps out at me as a firm selection (I wrote a similar statement last week, and had 2 winners from 2 named horses at 14/1 and 9/2). Will I rue those words?
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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