Paul Nicholls in tip-top form

The 454th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.

We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.

At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.

As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.

Selection:
Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)

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Remember!
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Two long-shots for Sandown

The 394th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

What a day for the blog – yesterday I discussed 3 races and found 2 winners at SP’s of 2/1 and 15/2 plus a 3rd horse who was a neck 2nd at 6/1, and I named none of them as firm selections. Sometimes (and yesterday was one of them) I kick myself for not having enough strength in my own opinions. Just a point win on each of those 3 and I’d have been 8.50pts in profit on the day for 3pts staked. It is the reason why I put in my narrative, so that readers can take my thoughts and opinions and use them to strengthen their own views. I do not take these “winners” into my profit & loss calculations (I wish I did) so my blog is transparent and bears scrutiny; but hey! It’s a lot better having to read some reasoning rather than just a list of horses names, isn’t it?

Before I move on, can I just say that ROSSBRIN was most unlucky yesterday to meet a horse who stays forever running in his debut chase; No Principles. I will support ROSSBRIN again as he jumped his fences very low and at speed, as such he could prove best at around 2m5f. No Principles is a previous course winner at Market Rasen and made-up a lot of ground (despite being impeded by the faller at the 2nd-last) over the final half-mile, he could be one for the marathon chases.

On to today’s racing and we have a grand meeting at Sandown for a Friday. Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at the moment and, as such, his novice Semi Colon will start at short odds for his chase debut in the 1:30 there. Clearly an improving hurdler, this will be different and for all the Henderson talents he cannot guarantee his novice chasers take to the jumps. There are a couple of proven novices in LEXICON LAD and Loch Ba, and altho’ Loch Ba is weighted to reverse their recent meeting, LEXICON LAD looks a horse with potential over the jumps.

Next up, the 2m4f hurdle novice hurdle would not disgrace the Festival itself. Unbeaten Fingal Bay was very impressive LTO, and Simonsig is an unknown – talented, but how good? Jump City will need to improve a lot on what he’s shown so far over a trip that may well stretch his stamina. There are no question-marks over SIZING SYMPHONY and the trip and going will be in his favour. His form from Cheltenham (Peckhamecho in 3rd has won both his races since and is rated OR132, yet was btn 17-lengths in receipt of 8lb) and Fairyhouse looks rock solid, and odds of 9/1 (William Hill) seriously under-estimate his chance.

At 2:30 we have the “Future Stars” chase over 3-mile & 110 yards, and this (in my opinion) hangs on how you rate last year’s novice chase form. I was on BOSTONS ANGEL when he won the RSA at the Festival, and it must be remembered that he is the only horse to beat Quito De La Roque over fences. He was travelling and jumping well before a rare error unshipped his rider LTO and he is a lot better than his rating of OR152 which seriously under-estimates his ability and achievements. He will prove in this that he is a 160+ chaser but, such is his task at the weights, he will need to be at the very top of his game to win today. The reason is GOLAN WAY is better than OR146 and (on a line thru’ Quito De La Roque) could prove up to the task today being in-receipt of 6lb from Bostons Angel. Odds of 10/1 (Ladbrokes) are plain daft given trainer Sheena West’s ability and that the horse is fit from a recent hurdle race.

Exeter features the Devon Marathon chase and Power Pack Jack will no doubt try and make-all as he did LTO. However, I always respect David Pipe’s entries in these long-distance races which he likes to target (since sending Lord Atterbury to be 3rd in the National when still a point-to-point trainer). SHAKING HANDS comes here fresh from a 269-day break and was the fav (at 6/1) for the Devon National here last March. I would be hoping for more than the 6/1 on offer tho’ as these sort of races are a test of strength, not form, and what looks like winning at the 2nd-last could end up a distant 3rd at the post. If I can get 8/1+ then he’ll be a (small) eachway wager.

Selections:
After yesterday, I’m going in with;
Sandown 1:55, SIZING SYMPHONY, 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill, BOG)
Sandown 2:30, GOLAN WAY, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury

The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)

Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.

It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.

On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.

At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.

At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.

Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.

Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.

Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

If you want value, this is where to come

The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.

There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”

There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.

Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...

The 381st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.

We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.

The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.

In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.

An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.

Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Fontwell hosts the Southern National

The 378th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.

That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.

Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.

It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.

I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.

I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.

It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Whip Crack Away!

The 376th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.

There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.

Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.

The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.

Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.

For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.

Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

AP McCoy & Henderson team-up at Ludlow

The 375th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.

At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.

There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.

Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.

I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

GOING WRONG another winner at 4/1

The 374th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.

Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.

We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.

Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.

At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.

At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.

Selections:
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Two winners y'day at 4/1 and 7/2, & potential 170% ROI

The 373rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.

First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm

As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.

Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.

At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.

Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

GHIZAO to repay faith

The 370th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We have one of the crucial days of the jumps season with the Haldon Gold Cup being run at Exeter. It is crucial as it sees the first meeting of some of the better novices of the previous season against some of the older horses.

This year we have a classic race in prospect but not due to a clash of the generations, more a rematch of the cream of last season’s novice chasers. The going could be the biggest factor in finding the winner of this race. On known winning form, the “good” going points firmly towards the fav last season’s Arkle winner Captain Chris. However, the going should be similar to that encountered by GHIZAO at Aintree last April and on that day GHIZAO did not look inconvenienced. I’m expecting that GHIZAO will be fully schooled for this encounter and it must be remembered that on 2 occasions he has been superior to Captain Chris over fences including when they met at Newbury over a trip a furlong further than this when GHIZAO gave Captain Chris 10lb and a 4-length beating. At 11/4, GHIZAO looks value as I’d have him more like 2/1. As I have already nominated the horse as one of my 3-to-follow, my colours are firmly fastened to his post, and I’m on. A win for GHIZAO will see the odds of 18/1 offered by the Tote and Betfred for the Queen Mother Champion Chase quickly disappear (the 20’s available when I nominated GHIZAO last week have already gone). As such, I would suggest than you have a small antepost wager on the horse before the Haldon Gold Cup is run.

Exeter 2:50, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes , best odds guaranteed)

Antepost wager on the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 2012
GHIZAO, ¼pt eachway @ 18/1 (Betfred or Tote) quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Lost Glory to continue improvement

The 367th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog again yesterday.

There are a couple of jumps meetings today at Fontwell and Stratford. I can’t see much to interest me at Fontwell , but at Stratford we have what looks to be an interesting chase over the extreme trip of 3m4f at 3:20.

Last year’s winner Runshan takes part again but he was allowed an uncontested lead when he won and he won’t be given that today with Ere Alfie and Power Pack Jack in the field. As such, I feel they will cut each other’s throats making too quick a pace as you will need to stamina to burn to win this. One that looks to fit the bill is LOST GLORY. Only 6yo and on the upgrade, he had the speed to win over hurdles 16 days ago, but he looks an out-&-out stayer. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill knows what is needed to win this race having won it twice in the last 7 years. The going and trip will not prove a problem and we know the horse is race-fit and ready to go. Ladbrokes go 5/1 (best odds guaranteed) and I think that is good value in a race like this as I’d have him at more like 100/30.

Selection:
Stratford 3:20, LOST GLORY, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

I have moved my “3-to-Follow” onto the adjacent pages for those who are interested and I will follow the progress of these horses through the season.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Horseracing needs to get its act together

The 365th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a mess horseracing is in!
On Saturday morning, for the 1st time in ages, I watched the whole of Morning Line as the latest review by the BHA of the regulations regarding “whip” use were discussed. From that discussion and a “demonstration” of the use of the whip on a member of the public (if a whip is going to be demonstrated on tv, do it properly), it seemed to me that there are huge holes in the position from which the jockeys are taking.

Firstly, this is not solely a jockey problem – it is British Horseracing’s problem and involves ALL who take part or have an interest: owners, trainers, breeders, bookmakers, racecourse operators, valets, tack suppliers, and (of course) the racing public. And it is that racing public that (in my opinion) are the most important as if horseracing loses the confidence of that racing public in the sport, then horseracing in Britain will collapse like a pack of cards. Other countries, especially France and Ireland, will be happy to fill the gap left, and modern technology means that racing abroad can be watched and wagered on without much difficulty.

Horseracing as a whole needs to get it’s act together and the factions involved need to stop taking pot-shots at each other. Horseracing also needs to link-up with other sports and recreations that employ the use of animals. Animal lovers need to understand that groups like Animal Aid that hold extreme views will not be satisfied until every human in Britain is a vegan and no animals interact with humans in any way, be it horses for riding or a pet goldfish in a tank or bacon in a sandwich. There has to be a concerted effort to involve all animal lovers into acting together. There is no point in loving animals if (in the long run) humans have no interaction with them, and the general public need to understand that.

Onto horseracing, and I had a selection yesterday in GULLIBLE GORDON who ran well enough, but wasn’t good enough. It was almost certainly due to not having had a previous run as he was looking tired and his jumping was skewed from about 6 or 7 fences out. He is a gutsy performer tho’ and stayed-on, but had nothing more to give from the 2nd-last fence. The winner was GONE TO LUNCH who was able to recapture some of the level of form from his past (was 2nd in the Scottish National in April 2010 off OR140 - raced yesterday off OR122). If he can hold his form he should win again when reassessed, but that’s a big “if”. In 2nd was INTAC who ran a cracker of a race considering it was the furthest he’d ever run in public and had not shown any form in 4 previous attempts at trips beyond 2m5f, and had only won once from 6 attempts at 2m5f. What this race showed was that in races beyond 2m6f, horses which bowl-along in front galloping at their own pace without need of cajoling are still involved when the racing gets serious in the final half-mile. Other horses, such as Frosted Grape and Drybrook Bedouin were never able to get into the race and never would. Why? As they need constant cajoling to keep-up and, with only 8 uses of a “corrector” allowed, horses like these are destined for an early retirement.

No selections for the blog today as only flat racing available.

Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Gordon! Don't be gullible.

The 364th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday – however, perhaps I should have had a wager given the results. I said I liked TATANIANO at Chepstow, but thought that his odds would be too short to represent value – and he had an SP of 5/2, incredible! Honest, I thought he’d start at 5/4 for this race and altho’ 9/4 was available when I wrote the blog yesterday I didn’t think readers would be able to get more than a “tenner” on him (if that) at those odds. Just goes to show that you have to keep your targets fixed during the day and step-in when the odds suggest that there is value. Remember, you don’t have to strike a bet, discretion lies with you.

The big story of the day was MASTER MINDED running well below form at Aintree. I did write on Friday that Master Minded was a bit of a character sometimes, and he certainly was not in the mood yesterday. Full marks tho’, go to Peter Bowen and connections of PURE FAITH who pushed eventual winner Albertas Run all the way to the final fence where he made a mistake which put paid to his chances – he still took 2nd place and £10,685 in prize-money. He is likely to be seen out at Aintree again today in a novice chase.

At Doncaster, CAMELOT trained in Ireland by AP O’Brien, took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and now heads the2012 Derby betting market at odds of 3/1 (which are bonkers). He showed a tremendous turn-of-foot to win this and is clearly an exceptional horse.

There is a very interesting h’cap chase at Wincanton at 2:50 over 3m3f. Last years winner Gullible Gordon returns and he is sure to be fit for this being sent here by Paul Nicholls. He carried 11st 8lb to win this last year, leading all-the-way. He has top-weight which is just another 4lb and he is the one to beat. Ballycarney does not look like he’ll stay much beyond 3-mile in a strong run race. Ballyvesey was 2nd in this race last year and meets Gullible Gordon on the same terms so its hard to see him reversing the places. Cullahill is another doubtful stayer beyond 3-mile, and whereas Templer will stay the trip, he struggles above OR128. Ethiopia will run his usual good race, but I feel the handicapper has him now, as is Frosted Grape. Of the others, Gone To Lunch needs to show he’s not “gone” at the game; Fortification is the 1st runner for trainer Kieran Burke and if he’s fit he could go very well off OR115 given he won a Class 2 chase off OR123 at Kempton in Dec 2009. As for Intac, this trip is a step into the unknown. Lastly, we have Drybrook Bedouin who is a horse I like as he stays all day long, but he’s up 11lb for a win last April and that’s tough. On reflection GULLIBLE GORDON at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) looks good value to repeat his win in the race of last season. The only doubt I have is the 7lb claimer who rides, David Pritchard, but that’s why GULLIBLE GORDON is 6/1 and not 7/2 fav.

Selection
Wincanton 2:50, GULLIBLE GORDON, 1pt win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Shares available in CHILWORTH LASS

The 360th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday with CAPTAIN DASH being a non-runner.

With horseracing being poor yesterday, I took a look at the Trainers Stats for Jump Racing over the past 4 years to see if I could find any interesting pointers. This is a “work in progress” and something that I will add to “as & when” - so, don’t think this is the last of the trainer-form blogs. I will not be looking at the likes of Nicholls, Henderson etc as the horses from those stables are well researched anyway. What I’m looking for are trainers who regularly have 20+ winners during the winter who have greater than expected strike-rates with either hurdlers, or chasers, or before or after Xmas and the like.

David Arbuthnot
He does not have many horses in the stable (just 19 in 2010-11) but he had a 30% strike-rate for the season. Last season, he did particularly well with his hurdlers but that was unusual as he is consistently finding winners with his chasers. In the past 4 seasons he’s had 21 winners from 74 chases (28%) and considering not one was a 1st-time-out (FTO) winner (0 from 7) he’s a man to note, especially in chase races of class 3 or lower.

Kim Bailey
Currently undergoing a resurgence since moving to Thorndale Farm in Sept 2006. Many won’t know that Kim Bailey has won all of the “Big-3” races; the Grand National (1990: Mr Frisk), the Gold Cup (1995: Master Oats) and the Champion Hurdle (1995: Alderbrook). Bailey had his best season in years in 2010-11, but he seems particularly adept at placing his chasers; 14 wins from 59 chase runs and 6 of his 12 chasers won FTO. He should be especially noted when he sends one for a class 3 chase (or lower) at trips of 2m4f or longer (11 wins from 49 runs; +£41.58 to £1).

Next, a plug for the White Diamond Racing Partnership of which I am a member. This was formed to own and race the 3yo juvenile hurdler CHILWORTH LASS who is in training with Sheena West on the South Downs just outside Brighton. Sheena has been firing in the winners this autumn including a hat-trick with ALFRAAMSEY another 3yo hurdler that (like Chilworth Lass) was bought out of the Mick Channon yard. The vibes are good about Chilworth Lass and her debut over hurdles is anticipated to be in November. There are still a couple of shares left in the syndicate so if you are interested please contact whitediamondracing@gmail.com and Tom Castle or Stefan Fellows will sort out the details. I’ve a good feeling about this horse as she is tenacious and game and reminds me of Katchit (oh, were she to prove as good!).

A couple of jump meetings today, but both Fontwell and Worcester are suffering from good-to-firm ground. Racing at Fontwell looks uncompetitive although one from my private alert list – TARVINI – looks like he’s recapturing form of old and he could be an eachway wager in the hurdle at 4:30. So, the focus is on Worcester.

Paul Nicholls sends ALDERTUNE for the 3:15 which is a novice chase and while the Charlie Longsdon runner Vincitore must be respected, Nicholls thinks a lot of Aldertune and, in coming here, he must be considered one of his better novice chasers. Unfortunately, current odds of 11/10 (I was hoping for 9/4+) are too short and not value.

Charlie Longsdon sends one off my private alert list to Worcester – RESTEZEN D’ARMOR for the 4:20. Longsdon won this race last year with Sir Ian and, by comparison, the two horses are complete opposites – Sir Ian being a bold front-runner and Restezen D’Armor a hold-up horse; so-much-so that sometimes it looks like he’s given up! Another interesting one in the race is Rate Of Knots who looks extremely well handicapped on OR116. The doubt about him is the ground as he’s looked best suited by soft or worse, so why he’s running here today is debateable (have just learned he’s a non-runner). King Ozzy will no-doubt help make the pace and trainer Lawney Hill is 3 from 7 here with chasers and that makes his odds of 9/2 (Betfred) fair for this 6-runner race. It is hard to see RESTEZEN D’ARMOR being beaten now, but odds of 2/1 are not value (I’m wanting 5/2+).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

2 wins from 3 selections yesterday

The 356th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day for the blog yesterday, I hope you all took note of the 3 horses that I put up:
2:45, THAT’LL DO – won well at odds of 15/8 (advised at 11/4)
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – also won well at the tremendous odds of 8/1 (was 5/s in the morning)
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – ran a stinker, maybe ground was too quick for him.

Due to these results and all my recent blogs on the jumps racing which has seen me put-up winners at 14/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 15/8 from a handful of selections, I am going to change my advice policy. From now on ALL named horses will be posted-up as selections and included within my stats on Betting League and Tip Exchange.

TRAFFIC ARTICLE came off my private Alert List and this list is already proving profitable. I know (without bragging) that I can spot improving and under-rated horses over the jumps that go on and win NTO (next-time-out) at decent odds. My alert list will provide the backbone of my selections this jumps season.

Onto today, and we have Champions Day at Ascot. The Champion Stakes itself has been a good race for me recently as I have been a follower of TWICE OVER and he’s done me proud. He has shown himself as good as ever this season, and I believe that he handles this Ascot 10-furlong track and trip (based on his close 2nd in the Prince Of Wales to Byword in 2010). As such, current odds of 12/1 are in my opinion far too long, and I find it hard to see him finishing outside the 1st-3 in a race that has been his target all year.

At Cheltenham, the opening 3-mile novice hurdle looks competitive. I’ll not advise a selection in the race, but if the Paul Nicholls trained ROUND TOM get’s longer than 8/1 then I’ll be having a small wager on him, probably a back-to-lay (back at 9.20, lay-off at 4.60 to double investment).

Next on the card, the 2m4f class 2 h’cap chase, has cut-up due to the quick going and only 8 go to post. There will be some pace on from Billie Magern and he could take some catching as he stays 3-mile, but I think he will be caught as the pace and going should suit last year’s winner EDGEBRIAR who comes into this race just 1lb higher than the rating he won off last year. At 13/2, he looks a value wager.

The class 2 novice hurdle has one from my alert list in ONE FOR JOULES. He won easily LTO with 11st 10lb on his back and tho’ she may be outclassed by these today, she is proven race-fit and has the form in the book whereas the others still have it to prove. I think odds of 6/1 are fair value.

There are more non-runners in the 3m class 2 h’cap chase and that means the odds have contracted somewhat. But I feel that BALTHAZAR KING is on a lenient mark of OR136, not only that but he has winning form at Cheltenham and will love this going. At odds of 7/2 he looks value, but only just.

I cannot see a worthy selection at Kelso.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:40, EDGEBRIAR, 1pt win at 13/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go best odds guaranteed)
Cheltenham 3:50, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win at 7/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

De Valira could show young-bloods the way home

The 354th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection – ARCHIE’S WISH – was a non-runner.
In hindsight, it was probably another bullet missed as I very much doubt that he’d have been able to win the race yesterday as Charlie Longsdon continues to keep his stable runners in top-form and his entry in the race – Wide Receiver – won the race very easily.

My other “tentative” selection was TRES CORONAS, but he got no run at all as he reared in the stalls and was left at the start – possibly due to his jockey being slow to remove the hood placed over the horse’s head to coax him to enter the stalls. As such, put a line thru’ this formline and ignore it.

There are a couple of interesting meetings at Wincanton and Uttoxeter, but there is also a quality midweek meeting in Ireland at Punchestown. I cannot see anything of interest at Wincanton, tho’ at Uttoxeter the 2-mile h’cap chase at 4:40 looks a possibility. I thought FARLEIGH HOUSE was a shade unlucky not to come out on-top and win on Tuesday at Huntingdon, as he looked to have the race at his mercy after the final flight (it was a hurdle race). From that, we know the horse is fit and in good spirits and, at this stage of the season, that’s a big plus.

At Punchestown, there is a competitive Grade 3 novice chase over 2m2f at 3:45 and DE VALIRA has looked a lot more like realising the potential of his novice hurdle days as a chaser (had a long period of absence due to injury). He may be a 9yo but he has bags of class and looked like winning LTO approaching the last fence till caught for pace. The extra couple of furlongs today will be more to his favour and he is better than a 10/1 chance, as I’d have him at 4/1 for this. I’m not sure he’ll win as both Shinrock Paddy and Rathlin have similar qualities and they are younger, but I’m sure DE VALIRA will be placed in the 1st-3, so perhaps a “place-only” wager on the exchanges.

No need to push the boat out yet as there is a good meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow and Saturday and there will surely be some good wagering opportunities.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Invest in what you know about

The 353rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

“Invest in what you know about”
Wise words from the “Off Piste” column of the Weekender provided by James Fanshawe when interviewd by John O’Hara. They originated from Lord White of Hull and although they were directed at stock market investing, they are just as valuable for “investors” in horse-racing. If you have not taken the time to appraise all the horses in a race, don’t invest in it.

I was also taken-in by the words Fanshawe said about his filly Spacious being his biggest disappointment when losing by a short-head at Ascot last summer. I was also "hit" by that loss; she was the subject that day of one of my largest ever wagers, and it marked the beginning of a losing sstreak for me.

No selections for the blog yesterday and, judging by how the results went, I probably dodged a bullet not advising anything.

The opening race was the 1st under the new “whip” rules over jumps and I felt that these new rules affected the result. Why? Because Farleigh House jumped the final flight as much the strongest horse and in front yet, his rider never once used his whip on the horse on the run-in. Not so eventual winner Tayarat, who had led for much of the race at his own pace. His rider was able to give the horse a couple of inducements on the run-in to which he responded well – and from looking a tired “also-ran” he quickly gained a winning advantage. We all have a lot to learn, and it could be an expensive winter if we don’t learn fast.

WALLS WAY may have gone close had he not fallen at the 2nd-last but, probably, the reason for the fall was that he was tired and so I doubt he’d have won anyway. BEDOUIN BAY looked impressive in winning the 20f+ novice hurdle, and he’s one going in my notebook.

What was most interesting was how much the Paul Nicholls runner SPOCK was beaten in the novice chase. Race winner OSTLAND enjoyed a return to novice company with an emphatic win, but SPOCK was disappointing. That he started the 3/1 fav and finished well ahead of a couple of race-fit rivals suggests that he met a very decent horse in OSTLAND.

As I wrote yesterday, not many horses stay 3-mile plus and as I expected, the 3 market leaders - Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy –filled 3 of the 1st-4 places. Jockey, AP McCoy, gave an exemplary display to win this race. He reserved a single use of the whip for his mount LOST GLORY on the 2nd-stride after the final flight, and then he showed his strength with hands’n’heels to push his horse to victory. Winter Alchemy was caught on the line, and I feel the form of this race is strong and can be followed.

I won’t be looking at the “flat” much from now on but one from my private alert list runs today at Nottingham in the 3:15 – TRES CORONAS. I’ve had him on my list since he was a fast-finishing 2nd to Granny McFee at Chester in May. I am surprised his trainer TD Barron has not employed Graham Gibbons for the ride but, even so, he looks worthy of a small ew wager at odds of 14/1 over this trip and on ground that should not inconvenience him (he did not handle the soft/heavy LTO).

There is a jumps meeting at Wetherby and at this meeting last year I advised a wager on ARCHIE’S WISH in the 2:50. He was 2nd that day off OR81 and then ran well NTO off OR84; so to go into today’s race on OR75 on ground he should appreciate looks good, and I rate him better than the 6/1 chance he currently is. The 7lb claiming jockey Joe Colliver is a bit of an unknown, but he’s won 3 races from 18 rides. The Bobby Renton H’Cap Chase probably needs a bit more thought, and if I have a selection then I will post it later.

Selection
Wetherby 2:50, ARCHIE’S WISH, 1pt win at 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Decent jumping action at Huntingdon

The 352nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There is just the one jumps meeting today at Huntingdon, and it's an interesting one too, and not just as it's the first jumps meeting using the new "whip" rules. The opening race is a brain teaser as both Phil Hobbs - Serious Choice - and Ferdy Murphy - Capricornus - have good strikerates at the Cambridgeshire track. Cumbrian trainer Nicky Richards usually does not travel well with horses sent far from home base, but he's won 2 from 6 here (both were chases) and he has the 3/1 fav Parc Des Princes. Those odds look fair about the fav and he would be the one I would be on for small money.

There has been a bit of money for Sambelucky probably on-account of trainer Keith Reveley having a good strike-rate here. However, I prefer WALLS WAY who was beaten by a good one LTO. Not a horse to take a short price on, odds of 7/2 are fair.

The 2m4f & 110yards trip is a step into the unknown for all the novice hurdlers in the 3:20. Of the field, I made a note of TROVARE when he won LTO and he should stay this trip.

When I woke this morning, I was going to oppose SPOCK in the 3:50 as I thought, being from the Paul Nicholls stable, he's be 7/4 or shorter. However, he is 3/1 with Vic Chandler and you cannot really oppose a chaser from the Nicholls stable in October. It is debateable whether Ostland can give him 14lbs. Firm Order races off his hurdle rating of OR122 yet this is his chase debut. Points Of View should stay 3-mile and he looked progressive earlier this summer (was outclassed LTO). For me, it is Peter Bowen's only runner NATURAL ACTION who fell LTO at the final fence. Bowen makes the long 241 mile trip here for this and the trip and going should suit this one. Odds of 11/2 available generally, look more than fair.

Not many horses stay 3-mile plus and so races like the 4:20 over 3m2f can sometime present easy pickings. This race tho' looks too tough to call and should fall to one of the market leaders of Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy. Given the odds, Winter Alchemy at 13/2 (Vic Chandler and Stan James) looks the most value.

Nothing jumps out at me as a firm selection (I wrote a similar statement last week, and had 2 winners from 2 named horses at 14/1 and 9/2). Will I rue those words?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Who fills the gap at Carlisle today?

The 350th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

The one horse I mentioned – GOLAN GUY – was running in Ireland at Tramore for AJ Martin with Ruby Walsh in the saddle. He started off a solid fav at 7/4 but never got into the race and, at the finish, was found to be lame. These things happen in racing, horses are not machines and that’s why you have to “build-in” an element of risk into your wagers.

There are a couple of jumps meetings today (I’m not bothering with the meeting at York on the “flat”). I am particularly drawn to the meeting at Carlisle for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I have been fairly successful at this meeting for the past couple of years, mainly by following the runners of Howard Johnson. However, as a result of his ban from racing, he has now “retired” from the sport and that has left a huge gap that needs filling on the Northern jumps circuit. The obvious candidates to fill it are Don McCain, Nicky Richards and Sue Smith and all 3 are well represented at the races there today.

Nothing takes my eye at Newton Abbot.

I’m looking more at the meetings on Saturday at Chepstow and Hexham and there could be a decent wager to be had. I may also have a final wager on the flat racing at Newmarket for the season, but I doubt it will be on the Cesarewitch.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.