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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 7 January 2012

Pasco to hurdle to victory

The 417th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I always find it interesting, having appraised the Saturday entries on a Thursday evening, just where the horses end up running – if they run at all. We have 3 interesting meetings today at Sandown, Wincanton and Newcastle, and hopefully by the end of this blog I am going to have a wager as I have not posted one since Boxing Day.

At Sandown, if the opening mares hurdle does not go to KAFFIE then something must have gone amiss. The soft going will really suit this front-running mare and if she does not win then she will only have herself to blame. Kells Belle and The Strawberry One both want going quicker than soft to show their best, and the others are outclassed and exposed. You can still get 7/4 in KAFFIE and that looks good to me as I would have her at slight odds-on. In the 2:05, I was going to go with top-weight Tanks For That who meets Rileyev on 5lb better terms than LTO and he looked to have the beating of that horse prior to falling in the race. It is a tight race tho and I am also taken with HOLD FAST who comes here (rather than Wincanton) and has a 12lb pull with Rileyev on their last meeting. Too close to call.
The Tolworth Hurdle looks tricky and, if pushed, I would go for PROSPECT WELLS for whom odds of 7/4 (Blue Square) could seem very generous later on.
For the feature race at 3:10, I cannot believe that QHILIMAR is 18/1 (William Hill). He is a C&D winner who has won on soft going, and while outclassed in the Hennessey off OR142, he races today off OR137 and he is capable of winning off this mark. He had no sort of race LTO on heavy going when unseating and he should enjoy the strong pace that will be set today which will be nothing like that he had to cope with in the Hennessey. I would have him at 7/1 for this race, maybe even shorter.
In the last race on the card we see Havingotascoobydo who I hoped would be chasing over 2m4f, but he runs in this 2-mile hurdle instead. I cannot have a wager on him in this, but he may well be worth a punt.

At Wincanton, as per yesterdays comments, in the opener REDBRIDGE REBEL for Phi Hobbs is worth a “place-only” wager. In the 2:50, PASCO is Paul Nicholls only runner at Wincanton and he could finally do the biz. He has nothing to fear in this race and could end his long losing run of 10 races back to Feb ’09. He should stay this trip and appreciate the going, as such 13/2 (Vic Chandler) looks worthwhile. In the 3:25, GALLOX BRIDGE looks an exciting handicap prospect and he looks thrown-in here off OR120 and Michael Byrne is worth every pound of his 5lb claim. Odds of 6/1 look very generous as I’d have him a lot shorter than that.

The only horse I’ll be watching (wagering?) today at Newcastle is in the last race, the bumper, and it’s MADAME BLAVATSKY who should prove too good for these.

Wincanton 2:50, PASCO, 1pt win @ 13/2 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:35, GALLOX BRIDGE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

I think QHILIMAR is well worth an eachway wager, but this is a tough race and there may be one or two that are too good for him – or he may win!

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1 comment:

  1. Just my luck - QHILIMAR led at the 2nd last fence and had nothing left to give when passed by eventual winner Hold On Julio. He did, however, manage to stay-on to be 3rd at an SP of 22/1.