Jumps Season 2012-13 = 50.675pts profit

The 2012-13 Jumps Season officially ended on Saturday 27th April and tho' I wasn't able to post a winning jumps selection on the day, I am able to advise readers that selections on the blog produced a… 

profit of 50.675pts for the season 

…from 1st November 2012 to 27th April 2013.

All the selections posted on the blog in the period, plus the stakes placed and the odds obtained are detailed on the relevant page alongside, together with results for previous seasons. Since I started recording my wagers posted on the blog on 1st November 2010, I have produced profits of:-

Jump Season 2010-11 = 10.0625pts

Flat Season 2011 = 10.890pts

Jumps Season 2011-12 = 10.70pts

Flat Season 2012 = no selections posted 

Jumps Season 2012-13 = 50.675pts

Total = 82.3275pts

This is on total stakes of 347.50pts, giving a Return on Investment (ROI) of 23.69%.

While ROI is a good way to compare performance with other tipsters (23.69% means that every £100 staked results in a profit of £23.69) it does not truly reflect the overall performance. You cannot compare 23.60% with an interest rate for savings for instance. 

I wager to £40 a point, so my wagers since 1st November 2010 have produced for me profits of £3,293.10 (82.3275pts @ £40 per point). To generate that sort of return from savings in a interest-bearing account, you would need to have had £40,000 on deposit at a rate of 3% per annum; probably more than that as you have to pay income tax in interest, whereas no tax is payable on the profits from gambling.

I operate on a £1,000 or 25pt "tank", and that £1,000 has never been in danger of being lost, yet has produced well over £3,000 in profit in just 2 and-a-half years.

Over the coming months, I will be assessing the form of the jumps season that's just finished and updating my alert list for the autumn. It is essential to be ahead of the handicapper with improving young horses if you want to profit from horseracing.

For the Flat racing this season, I am concentrating my efforts on Listed races and Group races. I posted a couple of selections on Saturday, and found a decent 3/1 winner in AL KAZEEM, and came close to making is a double on the day with my only other Flat racing selection ALJAMAAHEER who was caught on the line and went down by a "head". I reckon there is plenty of scope to find value in the top Flat races, and that's what I aim to do during the summer months. 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown

The final major handicap of the jump season is run at Sandown, the Bet365 Gold Cup. No matter what they call the race, old hands know it as the "Whitbread" and that's the name under which the race had it's glory days. With a top-weight rated just OR149 in Michel Le Bon, this renewal is not the strongest we've seen and is possibly one of the weakest. Even so, I reckon this race could be an exciting one as there are some decent improving chasers in Well Refreshed, Away We Go, Same Difference, and Hadrian's Approach who all look capable of winning on their day. I also like the look of On Trend who didn't appreciate Cheltenham LTO, but won a good handicap here at Sandown in February. The ground may be a bit quick for On Trend, but I expect he'll run a good race even if he doesn't win, and at 33/1 he looks worthy of a "place-only" wager on the exchanges. The couple that I reckon will be fighting out the finish are Well Refreshed and Same Difference. Both are 10/1 with the sponsor, Bet365 who is paying 5-places eachway. Each will stay the trip, both come into the race in top form having won good races LTO. The ground being "good" will favour Same Difference, but Well Refreshed has looked such a good horse in winning his last 3 races (he's only had 6 chase races, and has won all 4 completed starts) and I cannot see the ground being an inconvenience to him winning.

The best wager on the jumps at Sandown tho', in my opinion, comes earlier in the afternoon at 2:40 in the Celebration Chase. I do not think anyone can rely on Sanctuaire showing his best foot. If he does then he should win, but he is a rogue. Finians Rainbow has looked a shadow of his former self this season and to wager on him is not logical. That leaves WISHFUL THINKING as the way to go. He's run as well as ever this season, confirming his novice season promise, and a repeat of his winning form of February at Newbury should see him take this at rewarding odds of 4/1 (available generally). 

Earlier this week I wrote that I would be streamlining my wagering this summer due to time constraints. As such, on the Flat racing I’m going to focus mainly on those races which are “Listed” class or better. There are plenty of them throughout the Flat season and, because there are a lot of them, a fair percentage are “weak”. That’s the angle that I am hoping to exploit. There are a couple today which I think offer very decent opportunities. At Sandown in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at 3:15, AL KAZEEM looks to have this race at his mercy if he can repeat the form of his only run last season when winning off a very long break. I would expect Ektihaam to try and stretch his stamina, but that may well work in the favour of AL KAZEEM by making it a true-run race with a good pace. At 3/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes, those odds are too good to ignore. 

At Leicester, I reckon it will be a major upset if ALJAMAAHEER does not win the King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) at 3:55. As such, he's heading the market, but odds of 11/10 with Bet365 and Betfred look generous as I reckon he'll be odds-on at SP, trading at around 4/5.

Selections:

My final recommended wager of this jumps season is 1pt win @ 4/1 on WISHFUL THINKING in the 2:40 at Sandown.

On the Flat racing:

Sandown 3:15, AL KAZEEM, ½pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Leicester 3:55, ALJAMAAHEER, ½pt win @ 11/10 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Punchestown Day 2

We were treated to a demonstration of the strength of SPRINTER SACRE on the opening day of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland yesterday. Despite his tremendous efforts, Sizing Europe could not contain the champion, and yesterday also showed just how good a horse Sizing Europe is. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat; in fact he probably enhanced his already superb profile. Let us not forget that this is a horse that was chastised by a fair number of the racing press as being "ungenuine" when he flopped in the Champion Hurdle – while the "genuine" reason for his failure to win was not lack of character but an injury.

For me, the worst news of the day was that RULE THE WORLD - who was 2^nd in the Neptune (Novice) Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival – broke-down in the hurdle race won by Jezki.  I've not learned of his fate, as he was removed from the course, but it is unlikely that we will see him on the track again. He was bred to be a chaser, and looked to have a very bright future.

The Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f was won by the 14/1 chance Mount Benbulben by over 20-lengths, and this suggests the result is a bit dubious. There can be a fair few odd results at Punchestown as the meeting is the 3^rd and last of the major jumps racing festivals, and many of those that have taken in Cheltenham and Aintree are "over-the-top" by now. It could be that this race joins the list of odd results.

Personally, I had only one wager yesterday, managing to obtain 5/2 (just missed out on 11/4) on Newton Abbot winner THEATRE GUIDE (SP of 2/1). I'm sure he would have won anyway, but the race fell apart with the fall early-on of Empire Levant, who in-turn brought down Kapga De Cerisy, leaving THEATRE GUIDE to win easily.

Today's feature race at Punchestown is the Punchestown Gold Cup, and I think the value in this race is hard to find. All of the runners are well-exposed, with several of the 8-starters looking to have little chance (ie: Chicago Grey and Quito De La Roque), or only an outside chance if today is a ""going "day (ie: Riverside Theatre and Captain Chris). Personally, I think Long Run and Sir Des Champs have hit their performance ceilings and we are unlikely to see any improvement from them today. So that leaves First Lieutenant and Kauto Stone as the most likely contenders (in my opinion) to win. When they last met, Kauto Stone was superior but that was very early in the season and in his runs since he's disappointed.  I always thought FIRST LIEUTENANT should have gone for the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month and, tho' his subsequent defeat by Cue Card was no disgrace, he was made to look flat-footed over the shorter trip of the Ryanair Chase. Stepped back up in trip to 3m+ at Aintree, he showed his stamina is 2^nd-to-none running out a game winner. I think he will confirm his superiority over Sir Des Champs today and he will put himself firmly in the frame for a Cheltenham Gold Cup bid next March.

As I hinted at yesterday, I'm looking at streamlining my wagering this summer due to time constraints. As such, I'm intending to focus mainly on those races which are "Listed" class or better. There are plenty of them throughout the Flat season and, because there are a lot of them, a fair percentage are "weak". That's the angle that I am hoping to exploit.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Punchestown Day 1

The opening day of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland, and the tremendous prospect of seeing SPRINTER SACRE extending his unbeaten run as a chaser is the highlight of the day. The brilliant thing about Punchestown is that the first race of the day is at 3:40pm with the best races on at 5:30 and 6:40 allowing many the option of watching "live" on the way home from work if they pop-into the local bookies (which is what I intend on doing). While I cannot see anything beating SPRINTER SACRE today, I can see an upset in the Champion Novice Hurdle being staged at 4:20pm. RULE THE WORLD - who was last seen coming 2^nd in the Neptune (Novice) Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival - will not be lacking in stamina over this minimum trip, and he can put-stay the principle pair of Champagne Fever and Jezki. At 6:40pm, the Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f would not look out of place at Cheltenham – this looks a top-class field and is probably stronger in depth than the RSA Chase run last month, in which BOSTON BOB fell at the final fence. I felt BOSTON BOB was not given enough credit for that run, his first attempt at 3-mile, and I also felt that his jockey Paul Townend was given too much stick for that final fence fall when his horse was leading. The tactical speed he showed that day on the run-up to the 2^nd-last was impressive and is not something that we've seen in some of his rivals who all seem to want a trip in excess of 3m1f and the opportunity to show their stamina.

There is plenty of horseracing in the UK with some jump racing at Newton Abbot, Ffos Las and Towcester; but it's all fairly ordinary stuff tho' I do like the chance of Theatre Guide in the 2:30 at Newton Abbot. Not all horses appreciate the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham in March, so I can forgive him that run. I can also forgive him his run in the Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when he was hopelessly outclassed. In-between those efforts, he ran a cracker when looking like pushing Grandioso all the way to the line till falling at the final fence over 2m4f at Kempton. A repeat of that level of performance should be too good for this field, altho' the "dark-horse" Empire Levant from Paul Nicholls' stable could prove the most troublesome should he improve for his latest winning debut by about 12lb+.

Those are my thoughts on the days racing. I'm not posting any selections as the form of the jump racing becomes as unpredictable as the weather at this time of the year, and I had my fingers badly burnt on Saturday lumping-on a so-called "hot-pot".

The news that Mahmood al-Zarooni has been plying his horses with anabolic steroids is not good for horseracing. A shadow has been cast over the performances of horses from his stable since he burst onto the scene in March 2010, and questions will now be asked as to whether his phenomenal success was all down to his use of steroids. For his patron, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed, this is a double-blow as it puts pressure on his entire breeding operation. Reliance on performance based on merit is the fundamental foundation stone of a successful racehorse breeding operation, and if Sheikh Mohammed cannot trust his own trainers to run a drug-free operation then he cannot have faith in his stallions and mares to produce top-class stock.

Finally, the punter is also hit as form-lines become unreliable when a trainer abuses his position by administering steroids.  The punter is always the one to suffer whatever the outcome.

I'm formulating my punting strategy for the Flat season and I should be able to expand on that strategy over the coming couple of weeks. In previous years I have concentrated on handicap racing, endeavouring to find under-rated and/or improving horses to wager on. Unfortunately, for me that is a time-consuming occupation and time is something of a scarce resource for me this summer. I'm in a new job, with a house-move planned in a couple of weeks, and I've a couple of holidays planned in July and September – all of which will remove the opportunity to study race-form in depth this summer.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Cheltenham 17th April

We have a great day of horseracing ahead of us with the final jumps meeting of the season at Cheltenham. 

There are a fair few horses from my alert list running at the meeting this afternoon, and a couple go in the 2:45 which is a 3m4f handicap chase; they are Handy Andy and Imperial Circus. This trip is too far for the latter, but Handy Andy is fav for this race. Thing is, I reckon todays ground being good-to-soft is too quick for him and I’m also not sure he’ll stay this sort of extreme trip as he was one-paced LTO at Haydock over a similar trip. There are 16 runners still in this race, so there are 4-places available, but 7/1 doesn’t look value. The 2^nd-fav Hunters Lodge won a weak 4-horse race LTO and going-up 7lb for that looks harsh. The 3^rd-fav Dusky Bob is a grinder who should be on the premises at the finish, but he’s not my idea of the winner on this ground. Bounds And Leaps likes to dominate her races, but she’ll be up against it today and a 13lb hike for her LTO win looks harsh. This ground should bring out an improvement in African Picnic, but he’s not guaranteed to stay this extreme trip. As such, I’m taken with the chance of QIANSHAN LEADER @ 10/1. He was lucky to be 2^nd LTO as the leading pair fell at the final fence, but that was his first run since the autumn and an inspection of the formbook suggests he’ll improve a fair bit for that run and he’ll go well on this ground and stay the trip. He was a good 5^th in the Skybet Chase in Jan’12 and before that beat Benny Be Good a neck off OR126 which is only 1lb below his rating today. The remainder were over 28-lengths further back that day and a repeat of that performance would see him take this race.

The main race of the day is at 3:55, the MacMillan Cancer Suppert Silver Trophy Chase over 2m5f and, at the weights, it looks like GHIZAO has a chance of finding the winners enclosure. Menorah looks too high running off OR169 and giving weight away all-round. Hunt Ball will relish this trip and ground and we may see a career-best effort from him in this race, but he will need to find about 5lb of improvement if he’s to hold off Champion Court and GHIZAO. Champion Court is an admirable horse who is very consistent, but I rate him a consistent 157-159 performer, whereas GHIZAO is about 160-161. Not much between them in ability, but Champion Court is 9/4 today while GHIZAO is 15/2. At those sort of odds, I have to have a wager on GHIZAO and I will risk ½pt to win.

Selections

Cheltenham 2:45, QIANSHAN LEADER, ¼pt ew @ 10/1 (Bet365 and others offering BOG, ¼-odds a place 1,2,3,4)

Cheltenham 3:55, GHIZAO, ½pt win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, BOG)

Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Jumps Season 2012-13 blog stats and profit

What a tremendous jumps season it has been for followers of the Wayward Lad blog. Right from the off with the 1^st blog of the 2012-13 Jumps season posted on Friday 2^nd November the winners have been flowing. Here is a run-down of the 2012-13 season selections and the performance of the blog.

November

02Nov12: MR WATSON, 1pt win @ 9/4 non-runner

02Nov12: BLESS THE WINGS, 1pt win @ 13/2, WON = +6.50pts

03Nov12: PLANET OF SOUND, 1pt win @ 5/1 lost = (1pt)

03Nov12: ACE HIGH, 1pt win @ 5/1, PU = (1pt)

03Nov12: KALELLSHAN, 1pt win @ 6/1, UR = (1pt)

09Nov12: ASHES HOUSE, 1pt win @ 9/4, non-runner

10Nov12: GRADUATION NIGHT, 1pt win @ 9/2, lost = (1pt)

10Nov12: STAGECOACH PEARL, 1pt win @ 2/1, lost = (1pt)

10Nov12: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, 1pt win @ 9/1, WON = +9.00pts

10Nov12: ZARKANDAR, 1pt win @ 100/30, WON = +3.30pts

10Nov12: NO LOOSE CHANGE, ½pt ew @ 20/1, lost = (1pt)

12Nov12: SARANDO, 1pt win @ 7/1, lost = (1pt)

16Nov12: UNIONISTE, ½pt win @ 5/1, 3^rd = (½pt)

16Nov12: SILVER ROQUE, 1pt win @ 6/1, 3^rd = (1pt)

16Nov12: RUN WITH THE WIND, ½pt ew @ 20/1, lost = (1pt)

16Nov12: CINEVATOR, ½pt ew @ 25/1, 4^th = +2.625pts

17Nov12: SIRE COLLONGES, 1pt win @ 2/1, lost = (1pt)

17Nov12: BRADLEY, 1pt win @ 6/1, 2^nd = (1pt)

17Nov12: MONBEG DUDE, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, WON = +12.50pts

17Nov12: ANY CURRENCY, ¼pt ew @ 16/1, 4^th = +0.75pts

17Nov12: NADIYA DE LA VEGA, ¼pt ew @ 16/1, 3^rd = +0.75pts

17Nov12: HUNT BALL, ¼pt ew @ 9/1, PU = (½pt)

17Nov12: WYCK HILL, 1pt win @ 3/1, WON = +3.00pts

23Nov12: RESTLESS HARRY, ½pt win @ 11/4, lost = (½pt)

23Nov12: MARSHALL ZHUKOV, 1pt win @ 4/1, lost = (1pt)

23Nov12: BRACKLOON HIGH, ½pt win @ 9/2, fell = (½pt)

24Nov12: QUARTZ DE THAIX, 1pt win @ 5/1, WON = +5.00pts

24Nov12: CAPTAIN CHRIS, 1pt win @ 4/1, WON = +4.00pts

24Nov12: THE GIANT BOLSTER, 1pt win @ 13/1, lost = (1pt)

24Nov12: SUPER ALLY, ½pt ew @ 12/1, lost = (1pt)

29Nov12: SIZING SANTIAGO, ½pt ew @ 9/1, WON = +5.40pts +36.825

29Nov12: VALID REASON, 1pt win @ 11/2, lost = (1pt)

30Nov12: LET’S GET SERIOUS, 1pt win @ 5/1, WON = +5.00pts

30Nov12: BLESS THE WINGS, 1pt ew @ 5/1, WON = +6.00pts

Profit for November = +46.825pts, from 28.50pts staked

November highlights:

Following good horses is a sure way to profits and BLESS THE WINGS helped me start the blog with a win. I also started listing “eyecatchers”on the blog,  and those noted in November which subsequently won included Rolling Aces, Raya Star, Wayward Prince, Bless The Wings, Gallox Bridge, Monbeg Dude, and Wyke Hill.

December

01Dec12: REY NACARADO, 1pt win @ 100/30, lost = (1pt)

01Dec12: ROLLING ACES, ½pt ew @ 5/1, WON = +3.00pts

01Dec 12: FRUITY O’ROONEY, ½pt ew @ 25/1, lost = (1pt)

01Dec12: HARRY THE VIKING, ¼pt ew @ 25/1, lost = (½pt)

07Dec12: GRADUATION NIGHT, ½pt ew @ 10/1, PU = (1pt)

07Dec12: SATOU, ½pt ew @ 7/1, lost = (1pt)

14Dec12: SOUND STAGE, ½pt ew @ 10/1, lost = (1pt)

14Dec12: BRADLEY, 1pt win @ 3/1, lost = (1pt)

14Dec12: CROSS KENNON, ½pt ew @ 12/1 = (1pt)

15Dec12: OH CRICK, 1pt win @ 9/2, PU = (1pt)

15Dec12: NADIYA DE LA VEGA, ½pt ew @ 10/1, UR = (1pt)

19Dec12: BALBRIGGAN, 1pt win @ 6/1, lost = (1pt)

20Dec12: CHAC DU CADRAN, 1pt win @ 11/4, 2^nd = (1pt)  

22Dec12: HEY BIG SPENDER, 2pts win @ 7/2, lost = (2pts)

22Dec12: PRINCETON PLAINS, ½pt ew @ 28/1, lost = (1pt)

22Dec12: MAJALA, 1pt win @ 5/2, WON = +2.50pts

26Dec12: CUE CARD, 1pt win @ 6/1, lost = (1pt)

26Dec12: VALID REASON, ½pt ew @ 12/1, PU = (1pt)

Monthly total = 11pts lost, season total = 35.825pts profit

December notes: Following a brilliant November, the month of December was a big let-down with 11pts lost over the month from the blog selections. The only highlights came for those who follow me on twitter (@wayward_lad) with 6/1 winner Dream Function, 4/1 winner Wayward Prince and 2/1 winner Marshal Zhukov amongst those advised via that medium.

January

05January13: MONBEG DUDE, ½pt ew @ 12/1, WON = +7.50pts

05January13: OUR ISLAND, ¼pt ew @ 22/1, lost = (½pt)

05January13: FRUITY O’ROONEY, ½pt ew @ 10/1, 3^rd = +0.75pts

08January13: WEISENTRAUM, ½pt ew @ 10/1, 2^nd = +0.75pts

12January13: TRIANGULAR, ½pt ew @ 13/2, lost = (1pt)

12January13: BRADLEY, ½pt ew @ 7/1, PU = (1pt)

26January13: KATENKO, 1pt win @ 5/1, WON = +5.00pts

26January13: SOMERSBY, ½pt ew @ 12/1, lost = (1pt)

26January13: CAPE TRIBULATION, ½pt ew @ 9/1, WON = +5.40pts

26January13: KAUTO STONE, 1pt win @ 15/2, lost = (1pt)

Monthly total = 14.90pts profit, season total = 53.725pts profit

January highlights: A brilliant start to the month courtesy of MONBEG DUDE, but don’t forget the twitter tips not included here including 6/1 winner Viva Colonia. A reduced number of selections, but what quality! From 10 selections, 3 winners and 2 x EW placed.

February

02February13: HOLLOW TREE, ½pt ew @ 16/1, lost = (1pt)

02February13: SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 11/2, lost = (1pt)

02February13: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt win @ 9/2, lost = (½pt)

02February13: ON TREND, 1pt win @ 8/1, WON = +8.00pts

06February13: BILLY CUCKOO, ½pt win @ 5/1, 2^nd = (½pt)

08February13: COMEONGINGER, ½pt win @ 6/1, lost = (½pt)

08February13: CIRCUS OF DREAMS, ¼pt ew @ 66/1, 2^nd = +3.05pts

09February13: CASH AND GO, ½pt ew @ 9/1, UP = (1pt)

09February13: PRINCETON PLAIN, ½pt ew @ 40/1, UP = (1pt)

16February13: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt win @ 4/1, lost = (½pt)

16February13: BRACKLOON HIGH, ½pt ew @ 9/1, lost = (1pt)

16February13: CUE CARD, 2pts win @ 11/4, WON = +5.50pts

16February13: MONBEG DUDE, ½pt win @ 7/1, lost (3^rd) = (½pt)

16February13: VIKING BLOND, ¼pt ew @ 20/1, UP = (½pt)

18February13: ½pt eachway double, lost = (1pt)

22February13: SPANISH ARCH, ½pt ew @ 15/2, lost = (1pt)

22February13: RINGA BAY, ½pt ew @ 6/1, lost = (1pt)

22February13: CHARINGWORTH, ½pt ew @ 12/1, lost = (1pt)

23February13: RENARD, ½pt ew @ 13/2, 2^nd = +0.15pts

23February13: ROLLING ACES, 1pt win @ 9/2, 2^nd = (1pt)

26February13: THE MUSICAL GUY, ½pt win @ 11/2, lost = (½pt)

28February13: BUCK MULLIGAN, ½pt eachway @ 11/2, PU = (1pt)

Monthly total = 2.20pts profit, season total = 55.925pts profit

February highlights; a couple of good winners in CUE CARD and BRACKLOON HIGH but otherwise disappointing.

March

02March13: NIGHT IN MILAN, ½pt eachway @ 15/2, fell = (1pt)

02March13: THE KNOXS, 1pt win @ 6/1, UP = (1pt)

02March13: BOLD SIR BRIAN, 1pt win @ 100/30, PU = (1pt)

07March13: BEAU DANDY, ½pt eachway @ 13/2, UP = (1pt)

12March13: DODGING BULLETS, ½pt eachway @ 14/1, UP = (1pt)

12March13: OVERTURN, ½pt win @ 4/1, UP = (½pt)

12March13: LOCH BA, ½pt eachway @ 12/1, UP = (1pt)

12March13: TOUR DES CHAMPS, ¼pt ew @ 25/1, UP = (½pt)

12March13: ROCK On RUBY, 1pt win @ 6/1, 2^nd = (1pt)

13March13: GODSMEJUDGE, 1pt win @ 15/2, 3^rd = (1pt)

13March13: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt eachway @ 10/1, UP = (1pt)

13March13: TOTALIZE, ½pt eachway @ 16/1, UP = (1pt)

14March13: STONEMASTER, ¼pt ew @ 26/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: HADA MEN, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: CUE CARD, 2pts win @ 5/1, plus 1pt @ 7/2, WON = 13.50pts

14March13: VINO GRIEGO, ¼pt ew @ 12/1, 2nd = +½pt

14March13: SHOEGAZER, ¼pt ew @ 33/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: ON TREND, ¼pt ew @ 20/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: CHARTREUX, ¼pt ew @ 18/1, UP = (½pt)

15March13: AFRICAN GOLD, ½pt win @ 13/2, 2^nd = (½pt)

15March13: SILVINIACO CONTI, 1pt win @ 5/1, fell = (1pt)

15March13: DOUBLE ROSS, ¼pt ew @ 25/1, 3^rd = +1.3125pts

15March13: RENARD, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, UP = (½pt)

Monthly total = +1.8125pts, Season total = 57.7375pts

March highlights: CUE CARD was my Festival “banker” and he paid the way, enabling the blog to finish the month in profit. We came close with a number of selections at the Festival and, with a bit of luck, it could have been very profitable.

April

05April13: CUE CARD. 1pt win @ 7/1, 2^nd = (1pt)

06April13: GRANDS CRUS: 1pt win @ 6/1, UP = (1pt)

06April13: CAPPA BLUE, ½pt win @ 11/1, 2^nd = (½pt)

06April13: CHICAGO GREY, ½pt win @ 12/1, PU = (½pt)

06April13: CAPPA BLEU, ¼pt ew @ 11/1, UP = +0.4375pts

06April13: CHICAGO GREY, ¼pt ew @ 12/1, PU = (½pt)

06April13: VIKING BLOND, ¼pt ew @ 100/1, PU = (½pt)

06April13: QUEL ESPRIT, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, PU = (½pt)

Monthly figures to date = (4.0625pts), Season total to date = +53.675pts

No winner of the Grand National given, but we did get the 2^nd horse home in CAPPA BLEU. As such, the blog stands at a season profit of 53.675pts which, if I say so myself, is a great performance from a free blog with a maximum stake of 2pts.

I have written before that I think I give good value with this blog.

I post it online well before any of my selections are due to run and I tell readers how much to place, the bet type and which bookie to go to. I send out a "tweet" via twitter as soon as I post the blog so that you don't have to sit by your computer.  You don't need to register or use any passwords to read my blog, and there is no charge for the information. I am not a prolific tipster: I do not post 8 to 10 selections a day hoping that 1 or 2 will win (and then announce that I've made you a profit of perhaps 2pts on an outlay of 12 to 15 points or more). I don't just provide a list of horse names and race-times. The narrative provided says why I think a horse will win and why I think it is value at the odds available. I understand that the majority of punters out there want to have a "bet" a couple of times a week on a couple of horses on which they can lay-out £20 to £50 with a reasonable likelihood of getting a return, and I try and satisfy that person – they are my target audience.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

The Grand National 2013

This is it! Today is the day of the Grand National and what a race we have in propect as we have a full field of 40 runners with some running off 10st. But first, what a performance we saw from both Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. I’ve not calculated my personal ratings yet for the race, but that performance by Sprinter Sacre was the best I’ve seen from a horse over the jumps given the quality of the opposition. Make no mistake, Cue Card ran a phenomenal race too so where this puts Sprinter Sacre is in the realms of the all-time greats.

Today is all about the big race, but there are other races on the card the best of which looks to be the John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over 3-mile at 2:50. The interesting runner in this is GRANDS CRUS who returns to hurdles for the first time since coming 2nd in the World Hurdle in 2011. He’s not quite as good a chaser as a hurdler, but what a hurdler he was back then. I think the form he’s shown over fences suggests he’s still got the ability and speed he had as a hurdler. He is still only an 8yo, and so long as this race is run at a true pace then I cannot see anything in this race coming close to him. Odds of 6/1 look very generous to me.

I've been studying the Grand National form for several days and there are several in this race that keep coming to my attention. They are Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Quel Esprit, and Viking Blond. As I wrote yesterday, with a bottom-weight of 10st this year I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY and VIKING BLOND.

Before I go any further, BetVictor are paying each-way on the 1^st-6 places and that cannot be ignored.

CAPPA BLEU ran a cracker at Ascot LTO and he was 4^th off this same mark in last year’s National when doing all his best work in the final mile. He looks good value to be in the 1^st-6 at odds of 11/1.

CHICAGO GREY never really had a race in this last year as he was brought-down early on. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and, running off a lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. There has been a lot of market support for him and he’s now 12/1 with BetVictor.

VIKING BLOND carries just 10st He's been running well all season without winning and he should be in the front-rank thru'out the race. He did fall at the 1^st fence last year and that is probably why he’s 100/1, but I expect him to run a lot better than his odds.

Although I don’t expect the winner to carry more than 11st, there are several carrying 11st-plus that will run well.  One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT at 40/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1st-6 home.

Selections:

Aintree 2:50, GRANDS CRUS, 1pt win @ 6/1 (available generally)

Aintree: The Grand National at 4:15 – all bets with BetVictor who pay quarter odds a place on the 1^st-6 finishers:

CAPPA BLEU, ½pt win @ 11/1

CHICAGO GREY, ½pt win @ 12/1

I'm expecting one of these two horses to win.

CAPPA BLEU, ¼pt eachway @ 11/1

CHICAGO GREY, ¼pt eachway @ 12/1

VIKING BLOND, ¼pt eachway @ 100/1

QUEL ESPRIT, ¼pt eachway @ 40/1

Total 5pts staked today

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Aintree Grand National meeting - Day 2

No luck yesterday. It all seemed to happen too quick for Cape Tribulation and, on the face of it, the Ryanair form came off yesterdays race with a stronger look about it than the Gold Cup form. In the John Smith Hurdle over 2m4f, I was right to narrow the field sown to just Countrywide Flame or Zarkandar but, unfortunately, I chose the wrong one in Countrywide Flame. It seems Zarkandar is to be aimed at the World Hurdle in 2014.

 

Onto today, and the big race, the feature perhaps of the entire meeting for horseracing aficionados, is the 2m4f John Smith's Melling Chase featuring Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar. On the face of it, Sprinter Sacre should win - but this trip is a potential banana skin for him. I've long been a CUE CARD fan and the horse has done me proud this season providing me with plenty of profit, and I've already invested some of that profit on the horse at 8/1 for this earlier in the week. I'm not sure about Flemenstar, but he could also be a thorn for the odds-on fav. I just think his form is a little bit weaker than CUE CARD's and yesterday's win by First Lieutenant reinforces that belief.

I'm on CUE CARD for 1pt win @ 8/1, tho' current odds of 7/1 look decent.

 

Earlier in the day at 2:30, the novice chase over 3m1f looks a cracker. I'm opposing Dynaste in this as he looked ordinary at Cheltenham LTO and that form looks poor. Both Super Duty and Vino Griego ran great races to be 2^nd in their respective events at Cheltenham and, at the odds Vino Griego @ 8/1 looks the best value. However, I was at Ascot when ROCKY CREEK won LTO and missing Cheltenham could be of benefit to this horse. There's not much fat in his odds of 11/4, but I'm in for 1pt win.

 

If you didn't read my blog yesterday, I've been studying the Grand National form and there are several that catch my eye. I especially like Cappa Bleu as he ran a cracker at Ascot LTO on the same day that Rocky Creek won. Chicago Grey never really had a race in this last year as he was brought-down early on. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and, running off a lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT @ 50/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1^st-6 home so look out for bookies' who are paying 6-places eachway such as BetVictor. Another is LOST GLORY @ 50/1 who has been kept off the track since the autumn as he is not a soft ground horse, but he will stay all day long and will be doing all his best work in the final mile.

 

It is likely that we will have a bottom-weight of 10st this year so I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st this year. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY and LOST GLORY.  However, another I've long thought of as being suitable for the Grand National has sneaked in on just 10st, VIKING BLOND. He's been running well all season without winning and he should be in the front-rank thru'out the race. My final selection will be advised on Saturday morning.

 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Aintree Grand National meeting - Day 1

We have a great meeting lined-up at Aintree, culminating in the greatest horserace on the planet – the Grand National. There will be a lot said over the next few days about safety, and horses, and jump-racing in particular. From my point of view, you cannot be a lover of the horse and oppose horseracing. The Grand National, being the most famous horserace in the world, is the focus for opponents of horseracing. But, if the Grand National is lost, that focus won't go away, it will simply move-on to another race and chip-away at what forms a huge part of the national character. Horses and Britain are indelibly linked.

 

We have some great racing today at Aintree. From the 1^st race at 2:00 we have high-class fare, and the opener has been won by some really good hurdlers in the past few years. This race is dominated by trainers Henderson and Nicholls and I think it will be IRISH SAINT from Paul Nicholls yard that will take this. Even so, this won't be a betting race for me, as I'm waiting for what look to be more secure targets later in the afternoon.

 

Next up is the Betfred Bowl, a Grade 1 chase over 3m1f, and what a field we have for this. The hot-fav is SILVINIACO CONTI and I really cannot see this horse getting beat today. The ground is in his favour, as well as the trip and course – he won here last April over C&D as a novice chaser. Odds of "evens" are not generous in my opinion tho' as he took what looked a heavy fall in the Gold Cup and he will need to show there are no ill-effects from that race today. I cannot see First Lieutenant troubling the fav, even tho' this extended 3-mile trip will suit him a lot better than the Ryanair trip of 2m5f; I just don't think the horse is god enough. And the same can be said for Quito De La Roque who looks out of his depth. The ground will almost certainly be too quick for The Giant Bolster, and that brings me to that grand servant CAPE TRIBULATION. As I wrote yesterday, he also won here at Aintree last year, taking the handicap hurdle over 3m1f with 11st 12lb. As such, he will have no trouble handing this "good" ground and he could have too much speed for these over the final couple of fences and on the run-in. I took 10/1 eachway to ½pt yesterday thinking that he'd be 6/1 at the 'off', but he's 14/1 as I write with Bet365 and Stan James (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3) which I think is great value.

 

The John Smith Hurdle over 2m4f is at 3:05, and I think the new kid on the block, The New One can be opposed. Sure, he was a ready winner of the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival, but that race did not look as strong as we've seen in recent years. In my mind, the winner of this race will come from either Countrywide Flame @ 9/2, or Zarkandar @ 6/1. Of these, I favour the former as the 5yo Countrywide Flame was staying-on strongest when 3^rd in the Champion Hurdle. The 2^nd-fav Grandouet is a far from safe hurdler and falls too often for my liking. Zarkandar has long been thought to want this extended trip of 2m4f, but he looked one-paced on the Champion Hurdle and tho' he stayed-on that day he wasn't running-on in the manner Countrywide Flame was.

 

I've been studying the Grand National form and there are several that catch my eye initially. First-off, I don't like the fav On His Own as he fell on the 2^nd-circuit last year in the National, and falling late in any race is a sign of fatigue. I do like the look of the next couple in the market, Seabass and Cappa Bleu who were both placed last year and are coming into this years race well prepared. I especially like Cappa Bleu as he ran a cracker at Ascot LTO. Colbert Station is an interesting runner, tho' for a horse so short on chasing experience his odds are very short at 11/1. Chicago Grey never really had a race in this last year and he started at 20/1. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and runs off a 7lb lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT @ 50/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1^st-6 home so look out for bookies' who are paying 6-places eachway. Another is LOST GLORY @ 50/1 who has been kept off the track since the autumn as he is not a soft ground horse, but he will stay all day long.

 

It is likely that we will have a bottom-weight of 10st this year so I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st this year. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY, QUEL ESPIRIT and LOST GLORY. My final selection will be advised on Saturday morning.

 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

 

Aintree Grand National meeting 2013

This week we have the Grand National at Aintree, and the meeting looks a cracker. Apart from the Grand National itself, run on Saturday, there are some great races planned especially on the opening couple of days. I am planning on being in Liverpool seeing relatives at the weekend, altho' I won't be at the race meeting at Aintree. This time of year always puts a strain on my time what with Easter holidays, the Cheltenham Festival and then Aintree all coming in quick succession, and so I've not been able to finish off my Cheltenham look-back yet. The aim is to complete it next week after the Grand National.

Thursday has a couple of really good races in the Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1) and the John Smiths Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1). The "Bowl" should go to Silviniaco  Conti as he looks head'n'shoulders above this field.  He was probably tiring when he fell 3-out at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, but this easier Aintree circuit will suit him perfectly. Remember, he won the 3m1f novice chase (run this year on Friday) last season. Personally, I don't think First Lieutenant is good enough to trouble the fav, and I expect the one to follow him home will be Cape Tribulation who also won at this meeting last year when taking the 3m1f handicap hurdle carrying 11st 12lb. Current odds of 9/1 about Cape Tribulation look very generous and he must be the eachway play in this, and I reckon he'll be trading a lot shorter at the off.

The Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f has been relegated from Saturdays card, which I think is a shame as the race has a great history. The race has such greats as Comedy Of Errors, Night Nurse, Monksfield, Dawn Run, Istabraq and Morley Street on the winners rosta. This year's race looks very competitive with Zarkandar, The New One, Oscar Whisky, Grandouet, and Countrywide Flame all looking to hold chances.

Perhaps the race of the meeting (excluding the Grand National) is on Friday, when Sprinter Sacre meets Cue Card and Flemenstar in the Melling Chase over 2m4f. Regular readers of the blog will know that I am a huge CUE CARD fan, and he's done me proud this season providing 19pts of profit for total stakes of 5pts. If he will ever beat Sprinter Sacre it is over 2m4f as there is no way he would challenge him over 2-mile. This race will show just how good Sprinter Sacre is and whether he is the "monster" that some consider him to be. Paddy Power are  8/1 about CUE CARD and I cannot resist that, so I'm having a 1pt win wager.

I'll be looking mainly at the Grand National over the next couple of days and hoping to post up the winner on this blog on Saturday morning.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad